ICC World Cup 2019 | Qualification scenarios: How has the semi-final race panned out after England’s loss to Australia
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England’s loss to Australia has not only resulted in the hosts being in danger of missing out on a semifinal spot but it also meant other teams’ chances of qualifying have increased drastically. While Australia have already entered the semis, South Africa and Afghanistan are eliminated entirely.
Australia
Australia became the first team to qualify after getting the better of England in yesterday’s Lord’s encounter.
New Zealand
New Zealand must thank the International Cricket Council for being given a favourable draw at the start of the tournament and that invariably resulted in the team winning five out of six games. The tricky clash against India was washed out which meant both teams shared the spoils. Now, with 11 points from six games, New Zealand are well placed to confirm their position among the top four and one more win will just ensure that. The Kane Williamson-led side, which is one of two unbeaten sides in the tournament alongside India, are slated to play England, Australia, and Pakistan in their next three games, which, of course, brought the promise of uncertainty with it.
However, what will happen if the Kiwis lose all three? Can they qualify with 11 points? The answer is yes. They can still qualify but there will be a lot of permutations and combinations. Then, they will have to hope that none of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan should lose at least one of their remaining games which will ensure that three sides don’t end up with 10 points. It will mean New Zealand will qualify for the semi-finals at the fourth position.
India
After surviving a scare against Afghanistan, India remained unbeaten in the tournament, and in what has come as good news for them, they are the team to have played the least number of games. Two more wins will take them to 13 points and considering India are scheduled to play England, West Indies, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, it won’t be a huge problem after all.
But in case, India lose all their remaining games, they will have to hope that Sri Lanka and Bangladesh don’t win more than one game each. Apart from that, they have another couple of threats in the form of West Indies and Pakistan. If the Windies lose one match, that will ensure that they won’t be able to get to nine points and if Pakistan fail to win two of their remaining three fixtures, India will safely sail to the final four.
England
From being the outright favourites to losing to Sri Lanka, Australia, and Pakistan, England’s tournament is going on a slippery rope. What has become trickier for them is that they are set to play India and New Zealand. Ideally, a win in both those matches will help them through to the semi-finals.
While qualifying with eight points is extremely difficult, England can actually fancy their chances if Sri Lanka lose all their remaining matches, which will keep them at six points, and hope that Pakistan and Bangladesh don’t win at least two of their remaining games. Windies will also have a say on their luck as well as three out of three wins will practically negate England’s chances to zero.
However, if England win only one game from those two matches, then their dependence on other teams would rise manifold. In that scenario, England will hope Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to lose at least one of their remaining matches as that will leave Sri Lanka with a maximum of ten points, and the number of wins (England will have five wins to Sri Lanka's four) will help them surge ahead. Pakistan and Bangladesh will also end up with a maximum of nine points. If any of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh win all of their remaining matches, then England will have to sit and pray that India lose all their remaining games and stay on nine.
Bangladesh
A win against Afghanistan has strengthened Bangladesh’s hopes of qualifying for the semi-finals for the first time in their history, but unlike the top four teams, they don’t have a straight equation. The Mashrafe Mortaza-led team will take on India and Pakistan in their next two encounters and in case, they created the upset against both the Asian rivals, they will reach 11 points.
That, however, doesn’t mean a direct qualification in the last four. If Sri Lanka lose all their remaining matches and England win not more than one, then both the teams will be stranded on 6 and 10 points respectively and Bangladesh will make history. A loss in any of the games against Pakistan and India will see Bangladesh pack their bags and return home.
Sri Lanka
With six points from as many games, Sri Lanka’s campaign received a sudden boost after the ninth-ranked ODI team got the better of favourites England and secured a couple of points through wash-out games. As a result, they have emerged as a serious contender for the semi-finals spot, and three wins in three remaining games should ensure that.
Two wins from three games can also help them qualify but that will come with a terms and conditions clause. For that to happen, England should lose both of their matches and Bangladesh not win more than two while Pakistan lose at least one game.
West Indies
The two-time champions have just three points from six games and Andre Russell’s exclusion from the team with a knee injury hasn’t really helped the cause. However, they are supposed to face India, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan in their remaining encounters and will be favourites to win the last two games. The equation for them is to win all their remaining three matches and hope that England lose all their matches while, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka win not more than one each and Pakistan lose at least two. Any other situation than this will result in Windies being ousted from the World Cup.
Pakistan
After beating England, Pakistan lost their way in the middle but a sudden win against South Africa have put them back in contention for the last four. With six points next to their name, they have, however, a tricky task to accomplish. They have three matches remaining ahead of them and three wins should take them to 11 points. However, that won’t result in direct qualification and they would require either England to lose at least one of their remaining games or either of New Zealand and India to lose all of their remaining fixtures. It would result in England staying at 8 points, with New Zealand at 11 and India at 9. That means India, Pakistan, Australia and New Zealand will be the four semifinalists.
