ICC World Cup 2019 Final | How and where can England beat New Zealand

ICC World Cup 2019 Final | How and where can England beat New Zealand

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“It is coming home” - the social media is full on fire as the English fans prepare to witness Eoin Morgan slowly walk across to uplift the damned cup. In some corner, Kane Williamson though must be asking them to wait for the final blow - because hey, it is not over until the fat lady sings.

Force New Zealand out of their comfort zone 

Most of England's success over the last few years has been down to the fact that they have two of the most successful openers in the world at the top, which has ensured that a good start has always been on the cards. The dominance in the first powerplay has somehow eased the burden off Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler's shoulders, who have got the licence to go for the kill later in the latter part of the innings. However, the template may crash against New Zealand due to the varied substance that the Kiwi bowlers bring to the table, and England should be wary of that. 

A team built on the ethos of Brendon McCullum and Mike Hesson, and channelled in the right direction by the combo of Kane Williamson and Gary Stead, will try to have a tactical superiority which more often than not is their calling card, and unless England go one step ahead from the very first ball bowled in the match, it will be very difficult for them to catch up. Both Bairstow and Roy are susceptible against left-arm pacers as much as they are comfortable against the right-handed seamers - while Bairstow averages 31 against left armers as compared to 47 against right arm pacers, Roy's average drops to 30 against LAPs despite averaging 50 against right arm bowlers. 

This is the key. New Zealand will definitely have Trent Boult up front - and it is a no brainer - and the openers will have their task cut out. For a fact, if the duo can take him down and put him off the attack, it not only changes the complexion of the game, it will also help Eoin Morgan big-time. Morgan is vulnerable against bounce and has an average of 15.80 against short balls. If Ferguson was brought into the attack and was forced to bowl maximum upfront, it would also help Morgan avoid his pace and bounce. Therein lies an opportunity for England to try and negate New Zealand's plan on the go. 

Tie Williamson down with Chris Woakes, not Adil Rashid 

Well, IPL form can be a great deception. In the last edition, the Kiwi skipper was not really good against the spinners which ensured most of the teams used their best spinners against him to extract the benefit early on. However, it must also be noted that his performance in ODI cricket is what it is now because he plays spinners quite efficiently, and even though Lord's has a slower wicket as compared to Manchester, Williamson will hold the key in the middle over exchange. 

Then consider another problem for New Zealand. With the triumvirate of Martin Guptill, Henry Nicholls and Colin Munro going through a terrible run of form, the Kiwi skipper has practically "opened" for them in most matches and has had the job of stabilising the proceeding. If England go attacking from there, and ask Chris Woakes to bowl full and good length in regular intervals, it may spell the end for the Kiwi talisman. For that, though, they need to have a floating slip and gully in place to cut down the single-taking option, and thus asking Williamson to explore other options.

Williamson, as a player, is hugely reliant on his bottom hand and if things get tough, he has the immense ability to rotate strike without any visible change in his method. Woakes is superb in that count and if he can ensure the early blow, then Adil Rashid will have other players to target on. It will be prudent for the hosts to ask Woakes carry on a bit, even if the openers form a good partnership, and instead of bowling him in the middle overs, they should even extend his spell in the overs between 11 and 20. 

What if the wicket is slow?

The marked difference in the two parts of the English summer is one of the reasons why no team in the world, barring Australia 1990-2005, have been able to crack the code. It is also fair to say that no one really understood it and England’s success relied upon this deception. Be it the 1999 World Cup or the 2017 Champions Trophy for that matter, the change in behaviour of the surface and the eventual results that come with it made the proceedings interesting. Patterns go out of the way and this World Cup is a classic example of that theory. 

Wickets have become slower, drier and most importantly, the clouds haven’t dominated July the way it did in June. Did it really help England’s cause? That’s debatable but England enjoyed a considerable amount of help in their last two league games against India and, in particular, New Zealand, while batting first on surfaces which became slower and more responsive to cutters and slower balls. However, after a period of wet weather, the last couple of weeks actually provided groundsmen more time to prepare their pitches and the freshness may make the ground one usually expects in early summer.

That might have a huge say in the final as England would want Adil Rashid to put as much strain as possible on his bruised shoulder to recreate the Stoinis dismissal more and more against New Zealand, who are deeply vulnerable against quality wrist-spin. Lord’s also has the affinity of slowing down gradually and in that case, the duo of Jos Buttler and Eoin Morgan will have to tackle Mitchell Santner in the middle-overs. Of course, the English fans will want their team to bat first but England must prepare themselves for the worst situation too.

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