Why Ben Stokes' absence could fully wreck already-unstable England's team balance

Even prior to Stokes’ announcement, this English side was a hot mess. This was a side that was about to enter the series not knowing what its top-order was going to look like and who was going to fill the slot between Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler. Now, with the withdrawal of Stokes, the Three Lions have entered crisis territory even before a single ball has been bowled. 

So not only will England enter the first Test at Trent Bridge not knowing who three of their top five batters will be, they will do so knowing that they will have to tackle Bumrah, Shami, Siraj, Ishant and Ashwin without their best batsman. It is like asking John Isner to play Novak Djokovic after taking his serve away from him.

All this will be missed come August 4. England might not know what hit them. 

‘No Stokes’ will have grave consequences for England in both the batting and bowling departments but why his absence, particularly at home, could potentially derail the team is because it strips the side of balance, meaning they will have to compromise on the heterogeneity of the XI. The two-Tests against New Zealand showed how the absence of a Stokes-caliber all-rounder affects the entire dynamic of the side and it is something that the skipper himself acknowledged. 

Stokes’ presence, in Tests at home, allows Root to field Broad, Anderson, a third-seamer of choice and a spinner without compromising on batting depth and variety with the ball. It also gives England options. For instance, they can choose to promote Buttler to No.6 and even field a second all-rounder to bolster the bowling, something they did successfully in the fifth Ashes Test at The Oval in 2019. They can, of course, still implement the system but the absence of Stokes means that, in such a scenario, the batting will be depleted due to the replacement batsman - whoever it might be - being a downgrade on Stokes. 

To understand why the premier all-rounder’s absence will affect the Three Lions, come the first two Tests, it is worth looking at three different combinations England can field in the absence of Stokes, and evaluate each combination’s pros and cons. 

Play six specialist batsmen, Buttler at No.7 and field Curran and Robinson alongside Broad/Anderson

Pros: This combination is, without a shadow of a doubt, the strongest batting-oriented XI England can field. As the New Zealand Tests showed, batting remains England’s biggest concern but stacking the top with specialists, and loading up the lower-order with bowling all-rounders, will go a long way in ensuring the side puts out a decent total every time it bats. 

Combination 2

Push Jos Buttler to No.6, field both Curran and Robinson and leave room to field a spinner (or) Mark Wood

Cons: While on paper the batting looks strong and deep, that might not actually be the case. For a fragile batting unit like England, not having the insurance of an extra batsman will always be a big risk, particularly given the instability of the Top 5. Buttler might have been in the form of his life the last time he played Tests, but it is worth noting that the wicket-keeper batsman has not played any red-ball cricket in 7 months; he will, therefore, at least initially, be vulnerable. Curran at No.7 might still be a risk too, for 88% of his Test knocks, to date, have been at No.8 or below, with the southpaw having batted just thrice at No.7 (where he averages 11.25 with a high score of 17). Should they field this combination, England’s bowling might be well-rounded, but it will leave their batting open to raids from the visitors’ bowlers. 

Combination 3

Pros: This combination is essentially a mix of 1 and 2, meaning England get to play the extra batsman while also fielding a dynamic fourth bowling option (Leach or Wood). It will give the side a slight margin for error with the bat, particularly up top, while it will also give Root options with the ball. Though short on personnel, the bowling, in this case, will not be one-dimensional. 

Cons: This combination will lengthen the tail, and lower-order runs drying up will hurt England in the absence of Stokes. Ahead of the New Zealand Tests, Root spoke of the need for the lower-order to contribute valuable runs, but Broad, Anderson and Wood/Leach at 9, 10 and 11, though they are all more than capable of holding the bat, will not punch too many holes in the Indian bowling unit. Should England decide to field Leach, taking to the field with this combination will also increase the workload on Anderson and Broad, owing to there being only three seam-bowling options. As recently as the WTC Final, India paid the price for not fielding an extra seamer in the XI, so should indeed the spinner prove to be ineffective, a three-seamer strategy - two of whom are over the age of 35 - could come back to bite England. 

While each of the three aforementioned combinations consists of their own merits, what they do tell us is that without the presence of Ben Stokes, England simply cannot field a well-rounded XI that covers all bases. Over the years Stokes has delivered with both bat and ball for England, but what he has done is provide them the luxury of tinkering the XI based on conditions without losing balance, something they will not be able to do come to the first Test against India. Instability bothered the side even in Stokes’ presence, but now they will have to also deal with the imbalance. How efficiently and effectively they deal with it could very well decide the fate of the series.