Decoding Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros and how Dominic Thiem can achieve the impossible

Two days ago, Djokovic was the only player left in the French Open who had overcome Nadal’s supremacy in Paris. And the manner in which the Serbian had outplayed the Fernando Verdasco in his previous round, Nadal would have taken notice. However, all that buildup was flushed down the gutter by an emerging Marco Cecchinato in the very next round. Though Djokovic looked like he had regained his lost aura in French Open at times, he also looked far from his best self throughout the tournament that made Cecchinato’s win believable to some extent. 

Ahead of what appears to be a locked-in final, Thiem and his team would have already studied the King of Clay's performance in the tournament so far. A closer look at the first four matches that Nadal has won in the competition and one could observe his tremendous dominance over opponents in the points won from his first serve. In his second match against Italy’s Simone Bolelli which finished 6-4, 6-3, 7-6, Nadal won 74% of points from his first serve as compared to Bolelli’s lowly 56%. This kept the match in Nadal’s favour from the get-go despite Bolelli looking seemingly comfortable and sometimes even better than Nadal in winning points from rallies and at the net. Against Guido Pella in his third match where he won 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, we only saw Nadal getting stronger and stronger with his serves where he managed to win 85% of the service points from his first serve compared to Pella’s 66%, before finishing him at the net.

An aggressive baseline player by nature who excels in defending as well, Thiem relies more on his heavy forehand and surprisingly powerful backhand and consistently perfect high looping groundstrokes. Thiem’s ability to generate top-spin in his groundstrokes helps him attack and defend well at the same time, which has gone a long way in helping him to negate Nadal’s accurate serves over the last few clashes, unlike many of his clay opponents. His penetrating groundstrokes have also kept Nadal at the bay time and again, although Thiem has only used his weapons comprehensively and collectively on three of the last six occasions that they both have met on clay. 

Ilya Ivashka, who lost 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 to Thiem, managed to win 10 of his 18 net points against Thiem’s four out of 10, while Kei Nishikori, in his hard-fought 6-2, 6-0, 5-7, 6-4 loss to the Austrian, saw himself winning 13 of his 18 net points as opposed to Thiem’s 10 off 17. While Matteo Berrettini could only equal Thiem at net points, the Austrian’s only success came against Stefano Tsitsipas where he looked way more calculative at the net winning 19 of the 22 points after he saw an initial fumble in the 6-2, 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 win. However, just when people thought Thiem had pulled himself out of the tailspin came an agile Zverev who despite losing the match (6-4, 6-2, 6-1) in straight sets had got the better of Theim at the net.

Hence, a relentless Nadal, who would definitely be more agile and adamant with his unparalleled stamina, would look to exploit Thiem’s weakness time and again. Another important aspect, which Theim would be wary of, would be Court Philippe-Chatrier. While Rome saw very little area behind the baseline for Nadal to ply his trade as Theim was able to set him up properly, Madrid’s windy conditions in the altitude of around 2000 feet had helped Theim massively to go around Nadal. His fierce single-handed backhand and passing shots were just too much for Nadal to handle, who had later even credited the conditions for Thiem’s stunning win.

Thiem’s ability to see off long baseline rallies has been one of the biggest reasons for him winning seven of his nine ATP titles on clay. Over the years, he has managed to stun the likes of Nicolás Almagro, Stan Wawrinka and even Roger Federer on clay apart from Nadal. The youngster has also been credited for his good temperament and patience as reflected in his tie-break percentage, all of which will be challenged at the Chatrier. 

There’s a reason why the centre court at Roland Garros has been standing like a guardian looking over Nadal all these years. The vast 32-foot run-off behind the baseline makes the court the largest Grand Slam court worldwide and a defender’s paradise. To make it more dangerous, the slow high bouncing clay on the court makes the conditions impeccable for Nadal to grind his way out of any tough match. If that wasn’t enough, the planned roof that stands like a cover with a space of around one-and-a-half metres between the top of the building and the 11 wings, keep the humidity unchanged and conditions soothingly windy inside the court.

Nadal was mostly challenged by Schwartzman in the whole tournament who took the game to the Spaniard. Thiem had the same tactics in some of the previous games, where he picked on Nadal's returns very early standing closer to the baseline. Though it doesn't exactly is the key to beating Nadal, but the chances increase largely. However, the shrewd 32-year-old tennis ace knows what is at stake and has looked like a man on a mission so far, and with the conditions increasingly in his favour, Thiem would have to pull out something special.

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