Sachin v Kohli - The end to the endless debate on who is the greater of the two

India has a population of 1.25 Billion. 1.5 Billions Indians follow cricket. 2 Billion Indians are talking about Sachin Tendulkar at any point of time. In short not only every Tom, Dick and Harry but also every Laxman, Sivaram and Krishnan has an opinion on Sachin Tendulkar. For a writer, to write about Tendulkar is not just flirting with danger but also courting with disaster. And to do a comparison with another player is nothing short of inviting doom. But we at SportsCafe are a brave lot. So here we go; is Virat Kohli indeed greater than the God? Will that most notorious of bikinis, statistics, provide us a conclusive answer?

If Kohli were to continue his current performance up to 38 years of age, he would end up with 9500 runs and 35 centuries, miles away from Tendulkar’s nearly 16000 runs and 51 centuries. In fact, he would need to play up to the age of 48 years to match Tendulkar’s run tally; not just improbable but impossible.

More ever, Tendulkar played in the 1990’s when there were truly great bowlers and the pitches were more bowling friendly. To illustrate the point, of those who played greater than 20 matches in the 90’s, only 4 players averaged more than 50. Tendulkar led the charts with an average of 58, Steve Waugh comes a distant second with an average of 53 and he didn’t have to face the great Aussie bowlers of his period. In contrast, from 2000 onwards, keeping the same minimum qualification of 20 matches, no less than 23 players have averaged above 50! By common consensus, among his contemporaries, only Lara was comparable to Tendulkar while any of Root, Smith, Williamson and Warner can give Kohli a run for his money.

While these are early days yet, and Kohli might go on to become a truly great Test batsman, it is safe to say that he is unlikely to break Tendulkar’s records.

It is in the One Day Internationals that the comparison becomes truly fascinating. As of today, Kohli clearly has the superior numbers. Kohli averages 52 to Tendulkar’s 45 at a superior strike rate. Further, he scores a century once every 7 matches, while Tendulkar needed 9.5 matches. If Kohli were to continue at this rate till the age of 38, he would nearly match Tendulkar’s run tally and actually end up scoring 59 centuries, 10 more than Tendulkar. In fact, at this rate, it will take Kohli only 7 more years to match Tendulkar’s centuries records; scarily, he would only be 35 at that time.

But perhaps, it is not an entirely fair comparison. Tendulkar spent his early career batting low down the order, not having the chance to make the maximum impact. It is only when he started to open the innings that he truly came into his own. Similarly for Kohli, number 3 & 4 have been the positions at which he has had the maximum impact. Thus, all our comparisons hereafter will be Tendulkar opening and Kohli at 3 & 4. In these positions, Tendulkar’s average shoots up to 48.29 while Kohli’s increases only marginally to 53.64. Also now Tendulkar scores a century every 7.5 innings. An interesting fact is that Tendulkar is clearly the better batsman when setting targets. He averages 51 to Kohli’s 43. However, Kohli averages a whopping 63 when chasing to Tendulkar’s 46. The difference between the two is glaring. Further, Kohli has scored 15 centuries in just 92 matches when chasing and 13 of these have resulted in victories. His average in won matches while chasing is a Bradman-esque 87.

In fact, Kohli’s average while chasing is the highest among all players who have played more than 25 matches; AB De Villiers is a distant 2nd followed by another legend Michael Bevan. It is almost as if when there is a chase in front of Kohli, an inner compass gets activated and a computer program directs his game. To put it simply, Kohli is the greatest chaser the game has seen thus far.

Part 3: Peer Comparison

Tendulkar’s career spanned from December of 1989 to March of 2012. During this period, the average of all innings played at No 1 to No 6 position was 32.24 and the strike rate 73.77. Tendulkar averaged 44.83 at a strike rate of 86.23. In One Day cricket, Strike Rate is just as important as averages and hence average is not an adequate parameter for comparison. One solution is to multiply these two numbers and then make the comparison. Using this method Tendulkar’s performance is 1.63 times better than his contemporaries. The corresponding number for Kohli is very similar at 1.68. Hence, using this more nuanced method, it appears that both Tendulkar and Kohli are equally ahead of the pack.

Conclusion:

In the peer comparison normalized for different eras, both Kohli and Tendulkar come out equally ahead of their peers. However, while Tendulkar was the undisputed best ODI player of his era, Kohli has AB De Villiers, Amla and Dhoni as worthy competitors. Considering all these factors together, as things stand today, Tendulkar is the better Test batsman while Kohli is the better ODI batsman.

Future is notoriously hard to predict, and this analysis is more an exercise in frivolity rather than any scientific prediction. What is evident though is that Kohli will find it almost impossible to break Tendulkar’s Test records, whereas he has a fair chance of surpassing Tendulkar’s ODI records if he is able to maintain his form and fitness as well as matching Tendulkar’s longevity.

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