Chennaiyin FC v Atletico de Kolkata – who will make it to the final?

After a stellar first showing of the Indian Super League threw the gauntlet down, the second season has lived up to and surpassed all expectations. A string of global marquee players have graced the Indian green, pre-season favourites and heavy buyers have bitten ignominious dust, dark horses have picked up sudden speed, and crowds have been constantly entertained by this swirling soup of unpredictability.

With newly birthed franchise-driven league formats, doubts always get cast over a particular team’s ability to maintain consistency in performance. Take the Indian Premier League for cricket as an example: Deccan Chargers finished rock bottom in the IPL’s first season before, well, charging back to win in the second season. Closer to home, Kerala Blasters experienced major second season syndrome after going all the way to the finals in the previous edition. In this format that regularly defies predictions, Atletico de Kolkata’s accomplished march towards the semis is a refreshing beacon of consistency and quality.

Never has a Scottish-born Canadian’s name been sung with this much gusto across two seasons by two different teams. One of Kerala’s stand-out players in the first season, Iain Hume has improved upon his already explosive form in Atletico colours. Scorer of ten goals including two hat-tricks, Hume has a wide repertoire of goals in him: from tap-ins and rebounds to net-busters and individual efforts. When Kolkata’s midfield has the ball in the semis, there’s only one man they will be looking for.

For all of Hume’s heroics, though, he has been skilfully supported by fellow attackers Arata Izumi and Sameehg Doutie. Izumi has five goals so far this season, and uses late runs into the box to good effect. Doutie has been a somersaulting revelation, his three goals and six assists proving critical contributions to Kolkata’s rise to the top. All of this attacking ability backed up by the passing discipline and tempo setting of Borja Fernandez and Jaime Gavilan means that Kolkata has a front six to hurt any opposition.

Kolkata have conceded only 17 goals this season and have the league’s second best defensive record. But, as with Delhi, a closer reading into the distribution of goals conceded highlights an issue that may come back to haunt them. Antonio Habas’s men have kept only one clean sheet this season, the lowest number in the league. While this regular proclivity of conceding both home and away has been masked by the fact that they have enough goals in them, two do-or-die matches with a defense used to conceding can spell danger.

Delving into more details, we can see that Kolkata have the lowest saves/goals allowed ratio among the top four teams, making roughly four saves on average before letting in a goal. Combine this with the fact that all of Kolkata’s top four opponents have more shots than them in the league so far, and it makes for a tricky situation. Statistics say that Kolkata are likely to face many shots in the semi-final and final (if they make it), and statistics also say that Kolkata don’t make too many saves before conceding goals. Habas will have to hope that Hume and Co. are in goal-scoring touch!

Trigger-happy opponents and a low saves/GA ratio means trouble

Chennaiyin FC

It’s a testament to the players’ consistent performances and mental strength that they’ve put in strong showings to reach another semi-final, with Lord Mendoza and his trusty sidekick Jeje razing everything before them to the ground. A poor disciplinary record may come to play spoilsport however, and is something that Materazzi’s men will be wary of.

Strength: Sharp spears and strong gates

A less glamorous but equally important part of Chennai’s progress is their rock-solid defense. They have conceded only 15 goals, the lowest in the league, and have also kept a league-high 5 clean sheets. Armenian shot-stopper Apoula Edel has been calm and imperious between the sticks, organizing his backline well and making 28 saves including two penalties. As a fearsome defender himself, Materazzi has clearly spent good time drilling and grilling Dhanachandra Singh, Bernard Mendy, Alessandro Potenza, and Mehrajuddin Wadoo into the well-oiled defensive machine that it currently is.

Weakness: Red mist and Bengal blues

As impressive as the Super Machans have been, Kolkata have been a tough nut to crack for them. With a 3-2 home reversal back in October and a 2-1 loss at the Salt Lake Stadium in November, Chennai will have to tread uncharted territory if they are to triumph over the defending champions. Even the first season of the ISL saw 1-1 and 0-0 draws between these two teams. Football is a game where losing runs against bogey teams are well-documented, with each successive defeat making victory in the next match that much more difficult. With the next two games being do-or-die knockouts, Chennai can’t afford for this run to go on any longer.

Conclusion