Leicester City: Atop the perch or slip-and-lurch?

Perhaps no tale has typified the topsy-turvy nature of the Premier League this season more than Leicester City’s heady ascent towards the table’s top. With Chelsea’s lions having their teeth ripped out, the Liverbird alternately taking flight and biting dust, and Old Trafford turning into a theatre of somnolence, the Leicester Fox has been one of the few paragons of consistency in the first half of the campaign. In this article, we study the reasons for their barnstorming run so far and blow a cautionary clarion after a recent blip in form risks spiralling into something more.

Mahrez’s hammer of a left foot, tricky manoeuvrings, and fearless runs at opponent full-backs have led to 13 goals and 7 assists so far, the joint highest overall goals contribution from a single player. There is a melding of the tough and twinkly in him, part steely combatant and part sprightly ballerina, which is perfect for the rough-and-tumble of the Premier League. Ably supported by Marc Albrighton on the other flank, Leicester’s wicked wingmen have caused windstorms of havoc for the opposition.

 Apart from the conspicuous increase in goal returns, Vardy has bettered his shot-taking frequency, shooting accuracy, and chance conversion rate from this time last season. He has worked on the variety of his finishing as well: while earlier, chances were met with an unconditional whack to the back of the ball, opportunities are now being finished with curves, chips, or side-foots more commensurate with context.

The above screenshot outlines more key facets of Leicester’s playing style that see them as high as they are. Low possession, passes, and passing accuracy, coupled with a high proportion of long passes clearly highlight a willingness to let the opposition have the ball and counter with fast and risky passes up the pitch. The fact that they led the goal-scoring charts at the time of this screenshot (they are second now) shows how effectively they saw this plan through.

Moreover, Leicester have secured the highest number of points from losing positions – a trend carried over from last season – that underscores their splendidly-lit fighting spirit. It is a cliche put forward by commentators that no lead is safe against a Premier League opponent because they always keep battling, and Leicester typify that to the tee. It is strange that the counter-attacking style of play employed by Leicester – usually effective when sitting on leads and letting the opposition attack – has led to the most number of points won from losing positions, a time when proactive attacking usually makes more sense than reactive counter-attacking. The Foxes have even confounded statistics to reach where they are!

While statistics have been subverted so far, there are schools of thought that predict an imminent crash to earth for Ranieri’s winged charges. Expected Goals (xG), a fledgling statistical approach that takes into account various contextual factors and estimates the number of goals a team should score, indicates that Leicester have been performing above average for an extended period of time. The Foxes have scored 46% more goals than their shot quality would indicate, a large differential that is hard to sustain. A team performing considerably better or worse than its xG numbers predict is bound to regress to mean sooner or later: Swansea’s recent poor run has come after an extended run of scoring more than xG. Leicester will hope that the bell doesn’t toll for them as well.

Theorizing aside, a major on-field challenge facing Ranieri is his compact squad and minimal rotation. For a man fondly known as the 'Tinkerman', Ranieri has been very light-touch with any changes to line-ups and formations so far this season. Mahrez, Vardy, Albrighton, Kante, Drinkwater, Morgan, and Huth have been ever-present, with Okazaki, Ulloa, Dyer, and Schlupp providing capable backup. But move past the creamy layer, and Leicester may have problems. They have been fortunate with injuries till now, and with muscles twinging and bones creaking as the season enters its final furlongs, it remains to be seen how Leicester cope.

In summation, Leicester’s season is poised at an interesting and pivotal junction. More iffy results can easily start a slippery slope, but with injury gods smiling and the league as confusing as it is, a continued push for the top of the table cannot be discounted. In either case, this is likely to be the best Premier League season in Leicester’s history. We’re glad to be around for the ride.