Decoding the chasing dominance in IPL 2016

05/31/2016

Cricket has, for long, seen that teams winning the toss, invariably choose to bat first. The phenomenon was so common that when Ranatunga chose to chase in the 1996 WC final, it was met with incredulity.Times have changed, and batting first does not hold the same fanatic appeal that it once did.

However, IPL 2016 has probably been the first tournament in recent memory where chasing was the flavor through an entire event.

Statistics for teams chasing each year in the IPL

Choice upon winning the toss:

Over the past few years, chasing teams are having better success rates than teams batting first. Noticing this trend, captains are opting to chase more rather than set totals. This year, in particular, has seen a drastic increase in these numbers. Though, it is true that chasing sides have a better idea of the conditions and know exactly what to score, why has there been such a bias towards 2nd Batting Sides this season?

Average 1st Innings team Scores

One might be tempted to conclude that the comparatively lower first innings scores has made IPL 2014 and 2016 chasing friendly compared to the 2015 Edition, but the observation for 2013 says otherwise. Hence, this parameter doesn’t seem convincing enough and more in-depth analysis must be done in order to arrive at a conclusion.

POWERPLAY

Average of Top-10 Run-Getters

Eight out of the top-10 run scorers this season have fared much better while chasing, which answers to an extent as to why captains prefer to field first. But it doesn’t end right here. Their impact on the team performances should also be looked at.

Runs scored during Powerplay

The Chasing teams have not only had better Powerplay starts, but also better contributions from the opening pair. This can be explained by the great chasing form of the top run scorers, who would be referred to as ‘star players’ in this article for reference sake. The high chasing averages of the star players indicates the fact that they have made high scores on most occasions by playing a majority of the overs. After looking at the opening phase, it would be interesting to look at the impact made by the star players to their teams in the middle phase.

MIDDLE OVERS

Run- Rate during Middle Overs

While chasing, by the time the middle phase sets in, the star players would have had their eye in and are thus able to score effortlessly. Hence, the others who play around him can afford to get themselves in before accelerating, and when both of them start firing, this increases the run rate. The above scenario also makes the job of the finishers much easier, and the extent to which the job has been simplified can be seen below.

Last 5 Overs Required Runs Frequency Distribution

Out of 60 matches, on about 35%of the occasions(21 matches), chasing teams have required 40-50 runs during the last 5 overs. On another 25% of the matches(15 matches), they have required less than 40 in the same duration. This makes a combined 60% of the occasions(36 matches) where chasing teams have needed 50 or less off the last 5. In T20 cricket, 40-50 off the last 5 is quite comfortable a task and less than 40 much more comfortable, especially when chasing teams have had about 6-7 wickets in hand on average at the end of the middle phase. Hence, the finishers haven’t had to break too much sweat during chases this year and that the bulk of the scoring has been done in the previous two stages. This has to be attributed mainly to the star players who have made the major difference during both Powerplays and the middle overs with their contributions and also their calmness at the crease that has rubbed off on the non- striker batsmen.

Having analyzed the factors for success of Chasing teams from the batsmen point of view, it is worth extending the discussion to the bowlers as well.

Though this season has seen a plethora of injuries, the ones to the marquee bowlers like Starc, Malinga, Badree have affected teams the most as their replacements haven’t been able to replicate the performances of the former, thereby weakening the bowling attack. Apart from that, most of the teams, barring one or two, are batting-strong with a weaker bowling armory. Their weak bowling lineups have been exposed when defending a total because that is when the maximum pressure is on the bowlers and the bowlers haven’t been able to respond to the pressure. Owing to this, captains are relying on their batsmen to knock off any total set by the opposition instead of banking on their bowlers to defend totals.

Though chasing sides have had the upper hand in IPL 2016, ironically it was the team that opted to bat which went on to lift the trophy. SRH have showed that scoreboard pressure can win big games, irrespective of the opposition and venue. But whether International teams will also look to chase from now on or still go in with the ‘Bat first and Win’ approach in Limited-overs Cricket is something which we will have to wait and watch.

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