FCB (Bayern Munich) vs RMD (Real Madrid) Match Prediction

FCB

55%

Chance of Winning

RMD

45%

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Apr 30, 202410:00 PM

UEFA Champions League

Allianz Arena

Two of the best teams in the competition’s history are set to collide as Real Madrid are set to travel to Germany to face Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final first leg. Bayern Munich qualified for the semi-finals after beating Arsenal over two legs in the quarter-finals. They were solid in both legs, holding the Gunners to a 2-2 draw at the Emirates and winning 1-0 at home in the 2nd leg. Harry Kane scored the solitary goal to take his team through to the semi-final.

Real Madrid had a stronger opponent to overcome as they knocked out defending champions Manchester City over two legs in the quarter-finals. The first leg was a treat for the neutrals as the game ended in a 3-3 draw with some stunning goals. Madrid was a defensive rock in the second leg at the Etihad Stadium. They took an early lead through Rodrygo and kept a low block. De Bruyne did get the hosts back in the game. It eventually went to penalties and misses from Bernardo and Kovacic saw Rudiger step up to score the winning spot kick as Madrid progressed to yet another semi-final.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Chance of Winning

Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as discussed below are the two teams that have faced off against each other the most times in this competition. The memories in recent games however have not been very good for Bayern Munich. The Bavarians go into this have not won in any of their last 7 games against Real Madrid. They have managed to avoid defeat on just 1 occasion which was a draw. They have lost 6 of those 7 games which is the longest they have failed to beat an opposition in a European competition.

Bayern Munich have looked solid at home in the Champions League this season. They were really good in their wins against Manchester United and Arsenal at home this season. Bayern have looked like a shadow of themselves in terms of their performances in Europe. They have now defensively solidified with De Ligt and Dier as centre-backs.

Madrid on the other hand just knows how to play in the Champions League. They are the most dominant team in Europe and their knack for staying in games and being compact has been their asset. Madrid will look to play on the counter in this game. Solid shape and use the pace of Vinicius and Rodrygo. This is bound to be a game of fine margins but we believe that Bayern do have a slightly better chance of winning.

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Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Predictions and Betting Tips

According to the bookmakers, this game is one of those fixtures which is difficult to predict. Both teams in their run-in have been really good going into this game. Bayern despite their domestic struggles have been quite good in the Champions League. Madrid looks like a team that is coming into their own. However, as an away team, they have been more reserved. Hence the odd makers have gone reserved when it comes to backing a team clearly as both these teams can be unpredictable. Bayern Munich have been solid this season when it comes to playing at home. Their wins at home have been crucial to their success in this competition until now. Bayern Munich have won 83% of their games at home in this UCL campaign. Real Madrid this season are yet to lose a game in the competition however they have drawn a lot of games in this competition. They have a 60% win record away from the Santiago Bernabeu this season. Real Madrid on the road has been a more cautious side. Concerning their domestic games, Bayern are very good at home as well. They have won 81% of their games in the Bundesliga this season. Madrid in the La Liga also has a good win percentage on the road with 71%.

Based on these numbers here are our tips and predictions for this semi-final first leg in Munich. We expect this game to be a close affair. Our prediction in this game is for Bayern Munich to win this game. We see them winning this game by a solitary goal. In the Champions League, Bayern Munich has scored an average of 2.67 goals per game at home. Madrid on the flipside has an average goal-scoring rate of 1.80. Hence by these numbers, we do not see this game being a high-scoring affair. Our call is for both teams combined to score under 4 goals. Bayern have conceded an average of 0.67 goals in the Champions League. They are as a defence looking more stable. Madrid also is a defensively stable team conceding just 1 goal on average. Hence these numbers also back our claim that this will be a low-scoring encounter.

In terms of winning halves. Madrid and Bayern both win 60% of their first halves. Bayern has a better 2nd half record as they win 70% of their games in comparison to Real Madrid’s 60%. Both teams draw 30% of their first halves with Bayern not drawing any of their second halves and Madrid drawing 20%. Based on these numbers we believe the first half to end in a draw. We do back Bayern Munich to win the second half of this game.

In terms of stats, there isn’t much in this to separate the two teams as their numbers are eerily identical. Both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid have scored in 7 of their 10 Champions League games this season. With Bayern being at home, our call is for them to start strong and score the first goal in this game.

In terms of scoring for Bayern Munich this season we back Harry Kane to go in as favourites for the Bavarians. Kane has scored 7 goals and assisted 3 in his last 10 games for Bayern this season in the UCL. If he scores a goal or even assists in this game, Kane would become the English player to break Gerrard and Beckham’s tally of 10 goal involvements in a single season for their respective clubs. Kane has an eye for scoring goals in crucial games and this is a game where he can see him cementing his name.

For Real Madrid, there are many candidates to get goals. Bellingham has been having a brilliant season in La Liga playing as a false nine however we feel it will be one of Rodrygo or Vinicius Jr to score in this game. Our pick is for it to be Rodrygo. The winger has been Madrid’s top scorer this season with 5 goals. We feel Madrid will be dangerous on the break and hence we can see Rodrygo exploit open spaces.

Final Prediction:Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid

Bayern Munich Player List

Goalkeepers: Manuel Neuer, Daniel Peretz, Sven Ulreich

Defenders: Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Matthijs De Ligt, Alphonso Davies, Bouna Sarr, Raphael Guerreiro, Tarek Buchmann, Noussair Mazraoui, Eric Dier

Midfielders: Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Konrad Laimer, Jamal Musiala

Attackers:Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, Leroy Sane, Kingsley Coman, Eric Maxim Chupo-Moting, Thomas Muller, Mathys Tel

Bayern Munich Playing XI

Bayern Munich Team Form(UCL Last five games): W, W, W, W, D

Real Madrid Player List

Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Kepa Arrizabalaga

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, David Alaba, Nacho, Lucas Vasquez, Fran Garcia, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy

Midfielders: Jude Bellingham, Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Dani Ceballos, Arda Guler

Attackers:Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, Joselu, Brahim Diaz

Real Madrid Playing XI

Real Madrid Team Form(UCL Last five games): W, W, D, W, D

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Head-To-Head

Matches Played:26

Bayern Munich wins:11

Real Madrid wins:12

Matches are drawn:3

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Betting Odds

Bayern Munich to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.60.

Real Madrid to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.65.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.85.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Bayern Munich

The oddsmakers have gone conservative in their predictions for this game as they have placed these two teams with really close odds. We however agree with the marginal favourites that the oddsmakers have backed as we believe that Bayern Munich will edge this game. The major reason for that is their home form at the Allianz Arena. Bayern have been dominant at home this season winning 20 and drawing 3 of their last 24 games.

They have lost on just 1 occasion. On the flipside, it could also be an away win here as Real Madrid have been brilliant in their last 3 games whilst playing against Bayern at their home stadium. Madrid was the winning team in each of their last 3 games in Bavaria. They have scored 8 goals in those 3 games and have conceded just 2. There isn’t much to separate these teams. This game is a difficult one to call. Predicting this game to end in a draw would also not be a bad call. But we back the home team to get a win here. Our prediction is a 2-1 Bayern Munich win.

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