DOR (Borussia Dortmund) vs PSG (Paris Saint Germain) Match Prediction
UEFA Champions League
Signal Iduna Park
In the 2nd leg, Barca took an early lead through Raphinha again but they quickly found themselves a man down after Araujo was sent off. PSG turned the tie around with goals from Dembele, Vitinha and a brace from Mbappe. Dortmund in the 1stleg were trailing 2-0 to Atletico Madrid until Haller got an all-important goal in the 81st minute to take a 2-1 deficit back to Germany. The game at Dortmund was a blinder as Dortmund rushed into a 2 goal lead in the 1st half thanks to Brandt and Maatsen. Atleti came right back into it scoring 2 goals to go back into the lead on aggregate. Fullkrug’s strike in the 71st minute got them level on aggregate again and 3 minutes later Sabitzer scored the winner to take them 5-4 on aggregate.
Facts:
- Paris Saint Germain has been dominant against Dortmund in European games. The German outfit have beaten the Parisians on just one occasion heading into this. They have drawn 3 and lost 2 of the total six games they have played against PSG. Their only win came in the round of 16 games in 19/20 where they won 2-1 at home.
- Dortmund however have never lost a game at home to Paris Saint Germain in the Champions League. The Yellow Wall have won 1 and drawn 2 of their last 3 games when PSG have visited.
- Paris Saint Germain and Dortmund were also drawn together in the group stage of the competition this year. This is the first time since 2012/13 that two teams from the same group have met each other in the Champions League semi-final. The last time it happened was in 2012/13 when Real Madrid faced Dortmund. The Yellow Wall made the final that year, eventually losing out to Bayern Munich at Wembley.
Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint Germain Chance of Winning
When it comes to the head-to-head record Paris Saint Germain has the better of Dortmund in Europe’s elite competition. Their victories however have only come at the Parc Des Princes. Dortmund as a team has been a surprise package this season. No one expected them to overturn a 2-1 defeat at home against a stringent Atletico team in the quarter-finals. Scoring past one of the toughest defences in the world was a great achievement for the Yellow Wall. They will be confident as PSG themselves do not look the best in Europe this season.
Mbappe and co lost to Barcelona at home and were a goal down before Araujo was sent off turning the tie completely. PSG did well to come back into that game but there are still some holes in that team that can be exploited. Mbappe is, however, a game changer and comes alive on the biggest of stages. Based on this one phenomenon we believe that PSG have a slightly better chance of winning the game in Germany.
Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint Germain Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, Paris Saint Germain do go into this game as slight favourites to win due to their previous record against Dortmund and their considerably better form. Dortmund on the flipside come into this game on the back of a defeat in the Bundesliga.
The Yellow Wall has been really good in the Champions League when it comes to playing at the Signal Iduna Park. They have lost a total of just 4 games at home so far this season in the Bundesliga and still have not lost at home yet in the Champions League this season. Dortmund on average at home this season scored 1.88 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.82. They are quite attacking at home with their shots on goal amounting to 13.6.
In Ligue 1, still after 15 away games, no team has managed to beat PSG at home this season. In the domestic league, they have lost just 1 game. In the Champions League, however, they already have lost 2 times when playing away. They drew to Dortmund in the group stage 1-1 at the Signal Iduna Park. Luis Enrique’s team averaged 2.33 goals on the road from an expected goal ratio of 1.78. PSG’s shot tally away from home is slightly less as they average 11.53 shots per game.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We do believe this game will have goals. Both teams are known for their free-flowing attacking play rather than their defensive acumen. The last game between these two was a low-scoring affair with a 1-1 draw. Our prediction here is for both teams to score a combined tally of over 3.5 goals. We do expect both PSG and Dortmund to score in this game. We do not see any teams keeping a clean sheet here. Dortmund have failed to score in just 13% of their games at home this season with PSG surprisingly also having the same number on their travels. Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their games in comparison to PSG who have a 47% average. In the UCL however, they have conceded in every away game they have played this season.
Dortmund on the other hand have just won 50% of their first halves with Paris Saint Germain winning 40%. PSG however have won 70% of their second halves in comparison to Dortmund’s 40%. Both teams drew 30% of their first halves. Our prediction in this game is for the first half to end in a draw and for the Parisians to lead in the second. In the Champions League this season, PSG have a 70% ratio of taking the lead first in games. Dortmund, on the other hand, are not far behind with a 60% ratio. We back Dortmund to score first in this game. The Yellow Wall scored first in the group stage game as well.
For Paris Saint Germain the player to score in this game has to be Kylian Mbappe. The Frenchman has had another stellar Champions League season with the French Champions. He has scored 8 goals this season with his best, which was also 8 goals in the 20/21 campaign where they reached the final. A goal at Iduna Park will make it his best European scoring season. He is also just 2 goals away from reaching 50 Champions League goals which will make him only the 9th player to achieve that feat.
Dortmund as a team does not have dedicated scorers in this team. The whole attack chips in with goals. We however in this game will go with a left-field pick and select Marcel Sabitzer to score here. He has already assisted 5 goals this season including a match-winning goal against Atletico Madrid in the Quarters. Sabitzer is playing as an advanced midfielder and his late runs in the box could cause the PSG defence some massive problems.
Final Prediction:Paris Saint Germain to beat Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund Player List
Goalkeepers: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Marcel Lotka
Defenders: Mateu Morey Bauza, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Marius Wolf, Thomas Meunier, Niklas Sule, Julian Ryerson, Antonios Papadopoulos
Midfielders: Salih Ozcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Emre Can, Ole Pohlmann, Abdoulaye Kamara
Attackers:Sebastien Haller, Niclas Fullkrug, Julien Duranville, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
Borussia Dortmund Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Gregor Kobel |
Goalkeeper |
|
Thomas Meunier |
Defender |
|
Mats Hummels |
Defender |
|
Nico Schlotterbeck |
Defender |
|
Ramy Bensebaini |
Defender |
|
Emre Can |
Midfielder |
|
Julian Brandt |
Midfielder |
|
Marcel Sabitzer |
Midfielder |
|
Karim Adeyemi |
Attacker |
|
Niclas Fullkrug |
Attacker |
|
Jadon Sancho |
Attacker |
Borussia Dortmund Team Form(Last five-game): L, D, W, W, L
Paris Saint Germain Player List
Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Arnau Tenas, Keylor Navas, Sergio Rico, Alexandre Letellier
Defenders: Marquinhos, Milan Skriniar, Lucas Hernandez, Presnel Kimpembe, Nuno Mendes, Achraf Hakimi, Nordi Mukiele
Midfielders: Manuel Ugarte, Danilo Periera, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz, Carlos Soler, Warren Zaire-Emery, Cher Ndour, Lee Kang-in, Marco Ascensio, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola
Attackers:Kylian Mbappe, Goncalo Ramos, Randal Kolo-Muani, Hugo Ekitike
Paris Saint Germain Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Gianluigi Donnarumma |
Goalkeeper |
|
Achraf Hakimi |
Defender |
|
Danilo Periera |
Defender |
|
Marquinhos |
Defender |
|
Lucas Hernandez |
Defender |
|
Carlos Soler |
Midfielder |
|
Manuel Ugarte |
Midfielder |
|
Vitinha |
Midfielder |
|
Ousmane Dembele |
Attacker |
|
Goncalo Ramos |
Attacker |
|
Kylian Mbappe |
Attacker |
Paris Saint Germain Team Form(Last five-game): D, W, W, W, L
Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint Germain Head-To-Head
Matches Played:6
Borussia Dortmund wins:1
Paris Saint Germain wins:3
Matches are drawn:2
Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint Germain Betting Odds
Borussia Dortmund to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.75.
Paris Saint Germain to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.50.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.65.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Paris Saint Germain
PSG in the league have not lost a single game away but in the group stage alone lost 2 away games and drew 1. They however did beat Barcelona in their last away game albeit with the latter playing with 10 men. This is a tie that could go any way. We will back the oddsmakers here and predict a 2-1 win for PSG however we would not be surprised if Dortmund continue their unbeaten run at home against PSG.
Parimatch