Inter vs Milan Match Prediction

Inter Milan is set to take on AC Milan at the San Siro in the 2nd leg of the Champions League on Tuesday. Inter practically have one foot in the final and will be looking to become the 1st Italian side to make it into the Champions League final since 2015. Milan on the other hand failed to make most of their home support in the 1st leg as they succumbed to a 2-0 defeat.

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Inter came flying off the blocks in the 1st leg as they took the lead earlier through Edin Dzeko. The Bosnian converted from a corner in sublime fashion to put the visitors ahead in the 8th minute. Henrikh Mkhitaryan doubled Inter Milan’s lead after 3 minutes as he found the back of the net with an exquisite finish. Inter in the first half could have had 4 goals minimum. Hakan Calhanoglu hit the post with an audacious effort that could have sealed the game for Inter. Lautaro Martinez towards the end of the 2nd half also had a fantastic chance to make it 3 but his shot sailed over the bar. Mike Maignan kept Milan in the game as he made a fantastic save to deny Dzeko his 2nd of the night. Milan came closest to scoring after Tonali’s shot rifled off the woodwork. Milan out of 13 shots in the whole game managed to strike just 2 on target which is a worrying sign. Milan suffered their third defeat in the Champions League at the hands of Inter.

Milan couldn’t redeem themselves in the Serie A as they were beaten 2-0 by 17th-placed Spezia. Przemyslaw Wisniewski and Salvatore Esposito scored late in the 2nd half to drown Milan and put their hope for qualifying for next year's Champions League in serious jeopardy. Inter Milan on the other hand cruised to a 4-2 victory against Sassuolo with Lukaku scoring a brace and Lautaro Martinez scoring off the bench. Inter registered their 5th straight win in the league and are looking good to finish in a Champions League spot for next season.

Facts

• Romelu Lukaku seems to have hit form at the right time for Inter Milan, the Belgian striker has 5 goals and 4 assists since the start of April ever since returning from injury.
• Lautaro Martinez scored his 20th goal of the season after coming on from the bench to score against Sassuolo. The Argentinian has now scored 20-plus goals in back-to-back seasons for Inter Milan.
• AC Milan’s record as the away side in the Champions League in the knock-out stages is quite poor. The Rossoneri have won just 1 of their last 16 away games in the knock-out stages, drawing 8 and losing 7.
• The Rossoneri’s scoring record in the knock-out stages is also pretty poor. They have scored only 15 goals in 24 matches. This stat will be worrying for a Milan supporter considering they have to score at least 2 goals to get back into the game.
• Inter Milan has kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 knock-out games and has conceded just three goals.
• If Inter Milan gets past AC Milan in the 2nd leg, it will be the sixth time in their history that they have managed to reach the final of the Champions League. Inter Milan last won the title in 2009/10 under Jose Mourinho.
• Liverpool is the only team in the history of the Champions League to overturn a semi-final 1st leg tie when they were 3 goals down to Barcelona. No team before that who won the 1st leg by more than 2 goals have failed to qualify which puts Inter in a good spot.

Inter vs Milan Chance of Winning

Inter’s win in the 1st leg last week was their third win against Milan this season in all competitions. If Inter Milan manages to beat Milan in the 2nd leg, it would be the first time since the 1973-74 season that Inter have beaten Milan on four occasions in one season.

Inter Milan have a decent home record in the Champions League this season. Inter have lost just once at home this season on the opening day to Bayern Munich. The Nerazzurri in the Serie A have won 13, drawn 0 and lost 5 at home this season. Inter Milan has an average win rate of 60% at home in the Champions League and collects 2.00 points on average per game. Inzaghi’s men have not lost a single game in the Champions League in their last 5.

Milan on the contrary has been poor away from home this season. In the league, Milan have won 6, drawn 6 and also lost 6 games away from home. In the Champions League, Milan has only won 1 away game this season. They have drawn three games and lost 1 away from home. Milan’s chances of getting a win by three goals look very slim. The defence looks shaky and

their attack seems to have forgotten how to score goals. The stats and recent observations highly favour Inter Milan and give them a far better chance of winning and qualifying for the Champions League final.

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Milan vs Inter Predictions and Betting Tips

As per the bookmakers, Inter Milan goes into this game as slight favourites to win considering their 2-goal advantage. According to this season’s statistics, the Nerazzurri in the Champions League tends to score 2.60 goals on average this season. Inter have not been shy of scoring goals. They have some of the world's best three strikers in Romelu Lukaku, Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez. But often only two out of these three strikers end up starting on a given match day. With Lukaku and Correa starting on Sunday in the Serie A, we believe Lautaro and Dzeko will once again lead the line on Tuesday. It is tough to predict an odds-on favourite for Inter with Dzeko scoring in the 1 in the 1st leg, Lukaku scoring a brace and Lautaro coming off the bench to score at the weekend. If we had to choose one, we would go with Lautaro Martinez as his record against Milan is stunning 7 goals in his last 13 appearances against the Rossoneri.

AC Milan will have to come out all guns blazing and score. The Rossoneri couldn’t find the back of the net the last time these two sides met in the 1st leg. However, with Inter’s 2 goal lead, Milan has to score 2 as well or they will get knocked out. We back AC Milan to score and we predict that Olivier Giroud will be the one to put your chips on. The Frenchman has been brilliant for Milan this season. Inter completely marked him out of the game in the 1st leg but desperation for goals gets the best of most of the strikers. Giroud is a fantastic penalty box striker with all of his goals this season in the Champions League coming inside the box.

Final Prediction:Inter Milan to beat AC Milan

Inter Milan Player List

Goalkeepers: Samir Handanovic, Andre Onana, Alex Cordaz

Defenders: Stefan De Vrij, Raoul Bellanova, Francesco Acerbi, Federico DiMarco, Danilo D’Ambrosio, Matteo Darmian, Milan Skriniar, Mattia Zanotti, Alessandro Fontanarosa, Alessandro Bastoni, Denzel Dumfires

Midfielders: Roberto Gagliardini, Robin Gosens, Kristjan Asllani, Hakan Calhanoglu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Nicolo Barella, Valentin Carboni, Marcelo Brozovic

Attackers: Edin Dzeko, Romelu Lukaku, Lautaro Martinez, Joaquin Correa

Inter Milan Playing XI

Player	Role
Andre Onana	Goalkeeper
Matteo Darmian	Defender
Francesco Acerbi	Defender
Alessandro Bastoni	Defender
Denzel Dumfries	Defender
Federico DiMarco	Defender
Nicolo Barella	Midfielder
Marcelo Brozovic	Midfielder
Henrikh Mkhitaryan	Attacker
Edin Dzeko	Attacker
Lautaro Martinez	Attacker

Inter Milan Team Form(Serie A Last five games): W, W, W, W, W

AC Milan Player List

Goalkeepers: Mike Maignan, Antonio Mirante, Ciprian Tatarusanu, Devis Vasquez

Defenders: Fode Ballo-Toure, Davide Calabria, Sergino Dest, Alessandro Florenzi, Matteo Gabbia, Theo Hernandez, Pierre Kalulu, Simon Kjaer, Malick Thiaw, Fikayo Tomori

Midfielders: Yacine Adli, Tiemoue Bakayoko, Ismael Bennacer, Brahim Diaz, Rade Krunic, Tommaso Pobega, Alexis Saelemaekers, Sandro Tonali, Aster Vranckx

Attackers:Charles De Ketelaere, Olivier Giroud, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Rafael Leao, Junior Messias, Divock Origi, Ante Rebic

Milan Playing XI

Player	Role
Mike Maignan	Goalkeeper
Davide Calabria	Defender
Fikayo Tomori	Defender
Simon Kjaer	Defender
Theo Hernandez	Defender
Sandro Tonali	Midfielder
Brahim Diaz	Midfielder
Rade Krunic	Midfielder
Ismael Bennacer	Midfielder
Alexis Saelemaekers	Attacker
Olivier Giroud	Attacker

AC Milan Team Form(Last five-game): L, W, D, D, W

Inter vs Milan Head-To-Head

Matches Played:219

Inter Milan wins:81

AC Milan wins:71

Matches are drawn:67

Inter vs Milan Betting Odds

The odds of Milan winning are set at 4.00. Inter Milan are the favourites to win with their odds being set at 2.17. The odds of the match ending in a draw are set at 3.56. The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win: Inter Milan

We predict that Inter Milan will be the favourites to win and qualify for the final of the Champions League. Inter Milan goes into this game with a 2-goal lead with the San Siro set to be packed with Inter fans. Inter were completely dominant against Milan in the 1st leg having played them off the park in every aspect of the game. Inter looked resolute in defence, their midfield looked assured and their attack was clinical. Inter Milan’s biggest advantage over their neighbours is their striking ability. The Nerazzuri have the likes of Lukaku, Lautaro and Dzeko to choose from. Milan on the other hand has lost Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Rafael Leao to injuries. Leao single handedly won the tie for Milan against Napoli in the quarter-finals of the Champions League. Milan will have to come out attacking and they have to be worried about how good Lautaro and Lukaku could be on the break. It is hard to see Milan getting 3 goals and restricting Inter Milan from scoring. The Rossoneri’s slump seems to have hit them at the wrong time.

Shankar Shekh

Sportscafe's author

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