PSG (Paris Saint Germain) vs DOR (Borussia Dortmund) Match Prediction
UEFA Champions League
Parc Des Princes
The first leg in Dortmund was a very enjoyable affair with both teams having their fair share of chances. Dortmund got their goal in the 36th minute through Fullkrug as his touch to bring down Schlotterbeck’s ball was immaculate. His finish to beat Donnarumma was even better as he gave his team the much-needed lead. PSG had their chances with Mbappe and Hakimi both hitting the post in a matter of seconds before Donarumma made a two-good save to deny Sabitzer on two occasions. Kobel was also busy in Dortmund’s goal making some finger-tip saves to deny the PSG attackers. The best chance however once again fell to Fullkrug to surely give Dortmund a 2-goal lead. Sancho drove past to the by-line and cut back a cross to Fullkrug who had the entire net to aim for but skied his shot over the bar. The game ended with Dortmund winning 1-0 on the night but on another day the scoreline could have been anything.
Facts:
- Paris Saint Germain and Borussia now are facing each other for the 8th time in the Champions League in their history. Both teams have won 2 games apiece going into this. However, neither Dortmund nor PSG have been able to win against each other in their away stripes. The team to emerge victorious has always been the home team.
- Dortmund do not have a good record playing at home at Paris Saint Germain. Not only have they failed to win any of their 3 games at the Parc Des Princes but have also not managed to score in any of those games. In the group stage game where they lost 2-0, they managed to just have 1 shot on target.
- PSG in the quarter-finals lost their first-leg game at home to Barcelona. In the semi-final last week they also lost their first leg game to Dortmund. If they end up winning in Paris then they will become the first team in the history of the Champions League to lose the first leg of both their quarters and semis and still qualify for the Final.
Paris Saint Germain vs Borussia Dortmund Chance of Winning
After their last game in Germany, both teams went into this game with an equal head-to-head tally in this game. Dortmund and PSG have 2 wins each in their kitty.
The strategy for PSG in this game will be to attack from the go. Luis Enrique will want his team to get the equaliser as soon as possible cause if Dortmund do indeed hold the fort well then they could get countered. PSG will have to be careful and find a balance of not over-committing men forward or that could cost them.
Dortmund on the other hand will need to be more careful in defending their lead. They have to defend well in this game and will need Hummels to step up here. Organisation is key and PSG will give up chances on the break and that is where the likes of Sancho are. Adeyemi and Fullkrug will have to be clinical.
With all things considered PSG does have a slightly better chance of winning this game.
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Paris Saint Germain vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, Paris Saint Germain go into this game as overwhelming favourites according to the bookies to turn around the tie and win against Dortmund at the Parc Des Princes. The bookies back PSG due to their good record against Dortmund.
The Parisians have been good in the Champions League when it comes to playing at their home stadium. In the domestic league they have been a little bit iffy at home this season however in the Champions League they have lost just 1 game at home which was in the round of 16 against Barcelona. PSG on average at home this season scored 2.56 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.95. They are a high-scoring outfit when it comes to playing in front of their fans this season.
In the Bundesliga, they have had quite a decent runaway. They have lost more matches at home than away this season. The Yellow Wall in the Bundesliga, they have lost just 2 games whilst playing away. In the Champions League, they have lost 2 times, once being to Atleti in the last round and against PSG in the group fixture. Edin Terzic’s team averaged 1.94 goals on the road from an expected goal ratio of 1.45.
Based on the stats provided above, here is what we believe could happen in this game in Paris. Though the last one had just 1 goal we believe that this encounter could be more attacking. Both teams in this case need to score, Dortmund for security and PSG to get back into the game. Dortmund won the last game with a solitary goal but so many chances went begging for both sides but were not converted.
Our prediction here is for both teams to score a combined tally of over 2.5 goals. We do expect both teams in this scenario to score in this game. Even though in the group stage PSG did keep a clean sheet against Dortmund we do not back any team to keep a clean sheet here. Dortmund have failed to score in just 6% of their games when they travel this season with PSG surprisingly also having the same number when they play at the Parc Des Princes. Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their games away in comparison to PSG who have a 25% average at home. The stats highly indicate and favour both teams to get on the scoresheet in this game.
For Paris Saint Germain we continue to back Kylian Mbappe to score in this game. The Frenchman loves playing in the Champions League and is at his best when his team is under pressure. Mbappe shines in the toughest of moments. His ability to step up at clutch moments is why we back him here. He has done it countless times and also he has the stats to back him up. He has 21 goals and 11 assists in his last 31 games at the Parc Des Princes. He loves playing at this stadium and even in the last game when PSG needed him he stepped up. Hence we pick Mbappe to stand out here.
For Dortmund, we back Niclas Fullkrug to score once again in this game if Dortmund are to indeed find a goal here. The German striker has had a fantastic season for the Yellow Wall this season. He is their top scorer this season in the UCL with 3 goals including the solitary goal in the first leg. Fullkrug could have had more goals in the first leg showing that he can pop up at any place at any time. He is also a threat on set pieces and hence is a player to keep an eye on.
Final Prediction:Paris Saint Germain to beat Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint Germain Player List
Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Arnau Tenas, Keylor Navas, Sergio Rico, Alexandre Letellier
Defenders: Marquinhos, Milan Skriniar, Lucas Hernandez, Presnel Kimpembe, Nuno Mendes, Achraf Hakimi, Nordi Mukiele
Midfielders: Manuel Ugarte, Danilo Periera, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz, Carlos Soler, Warren Zaire-Emery, Cher Ndour, Lee Kang-in, Marco Ascensio, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola
Attackers:Kylian Mbappe, Goncalo Ramos, Randal Kolo-Muani, Hugo Ekitike
Paris Saint Germain Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Gianluigi Donnarumma |
Goalkeeper |
|
Achraf Hakimi |
Defender |
|
Danilo Periera |
Defender |
|
Marquinhos |
Defender |
|
Lucas Hernandez |
Defender |
|
Carlos Soler |
Midfielder |
|
Manuel Ugarte |
Midfielder |
|
Vitinha |
Midfielder |
|
Ousmane Dembele |
Attacker |
|
Goncalo Ramos |
Attacker |
|
Kylian Mbappe |
Attacker |
Paris Saint Germain Team Form(Last five games): L, D, W, W, W
Borussia Dortmund Player List
Goalkeepers: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Marcel Lotka
Defenders: Mateu Morey Bauza, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Marius Wolf, Thomas Meunier, Niklas Sule, Julian Ryerson, Antonios Papadopoulos
Midfielders: Salih Ozcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Emre Can, Ole Pohlmann, Abdoulaye Kamara
Attackers:Sebastien Haller, Niclas Fullkrug, Julien Duranville, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
Borussia Dortmund Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Gregor Kobel |
Goalkeeper |
|
Thomas Meunier |
Defender |
|
Mats Hummels |
Defender |
|
Nico Schlotterbeck |
Defender |
|
Ramy Bensebaini |
Defender |
|
Emre Can |
Midfielder |
|
Julian Brandt |
Midfielder |
|
Marcel Sabitzer |
Midfielder |
|
Karim Adeyemi |
Attacker |
|
Niclas Fullkrug |
Attacker |
|
Jadon Sancho |
Attacker |
Borussia Dortmund Team Form(Last five games): W, W, L, D, W
Paris Saint Germain vs Borussia Dortmund Head-To-Head
Matches Played:7
Paris Saint Germain wins:3
Borussia Dortmund wins:2
Matches are drawn:2
Paris Saint Germain vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Odds
Paris Saint Germain to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.49.
Borussia Dortmund to win the match (PARIMATCH): 6.50.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.80.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Paris Saint Germain
However, stranger things have also happened in the Champions League before. PSG lost at home in the quarter-final first leg to Barcelona. In the league as well they have faltered at home this season quite a few times. PSG have to score 2 or more and stop Dortmund from scoring as well. Based on everything we are with the bookies and do believe that PSG can do it at home but we do not rule Dortmund out as well. We do see PSG ending up winning but either in extra time or in a penalty shootout. Our prediction is a 2-1 PSG win after 120 minutes and PSG to win on penalties.
Parimatch