RMD (Real Madrid) vs MCI (Manchester City) Match Prediction

RMD

35%

Chance of Winning

MCI

65%

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UEFA Champions League

Santiago Bernabeu

Manchester City are all set to visit Real Madrid in the 1st leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final tie at the Santiago Bernabeu. Both these teams at the start of the competition would have been picked as favourites to win the title. Manchester City under Pep Guardiola are looking to win their first Champions League title. Real Madrid on the other hand is the most decorated team in the history of this competition. The Los Blancos have won the Champions League a record 14 times.

Real Madrid came into this game on the back of a Copa Del Rey final win against Osasuna. The Los Blancos went on to win the 20th Copa Del Rey title on Sunday. Rodrygo opened the scoring for Real in the 2nd minute. Osasuna looked good in the game and put Real Madrid under a lot of pressure defensively but couldn’t finish their chances. They however equalised through Lucas Torro in the 58th minute. Rodrygo scored his 2nd of the day in the 70th minute in what proved to be the winning goal from the Brazilian attacker. The Los Blancos have however been poor in La Liga. They currently sit 3rd in the table 14 points behind leaders Barcelona. They were defeated by Real Sociedad 2-0 in their last game in the League. Real Madrid on the course of reaching the semi-final this year beat Liverpool in the round of 16 and Chelsea in the quarter-finals. Their record against English teams is quite good.

Manchester City on the other hand are close to winning their third straight Premier League title after they defeated Leeds United at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday. A brace from Ilkay Gundogan ensured that Manchester City needed another 3 wins to wrap up the title. Manchester City have had an amazing run to the Champions League semi-final. The Citizens remain undefeated in the competition till now. They convincingly disposed of RB Leipzig in the round of 16 beating them 8-1 on aggregate. They then went on to beat heavyweights Bayern Munich 4-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

It is fair to say that the winner from this tie would be favourites to win the final in June. Madrid has won this competition more than any other team in history but Manchester City do look like a side that has all the ammunition in their arsenal to dethrone Los Blancos. This tie has a blockbuster written all over it!

Facts

  • Last season these two sides met in the semi-final as well. Real Madrid was beaten by Manchester City 4-3 at the Etihad. The Los Blancos however beat City 3-1 at the Santiago Bernabeu to progress to the final.
  • Real Madrid have won 4 home matches in a row in the Champions League.
  • Manchester City drew 4 out of their last 7 games in the Champions League.
  • Manchester City have lost none of their last 9 away matches.
  • In the last 4 games between both Real Madrid and Manchester City, there have been 17 goals scored by both sides at an average of 4.3 goals a game.
  • Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has lost only 5 games out of the 21 games he has played against Real Madrid whilst he was the manager of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
  • This is also Pep Guardiola’s 10th Champions League final in his career. The Spaniard though has been eliminated from 6 of the 9 semi-finals he has reached.
  • Toni Kroos of Real Madrid and Rodri from Manchester City have made the most line-breaking passes in the UEFA Champions League this season. Kroos leads the charts with 84 passes and Rodri comes in 2nd with 62.
  • Manchester City have already beaten Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu in 2020. If they manage to beat Madrid at home on Wednesday then Manchester City will become the 1st English team to beat Los Blancos at home multiple times.
  • Erling Haaland is the Champions League top scorer with 12 goals.
  • Vinicius Jr is Real Madrid’s top scorer in the Champions League with 6 goals.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Chance of Winning

Manchester City and Real Madrid couldn’t have had a more even head-to-head record in the Champions League. In the last 8 games these sides have played, Real Madrid have won 3, Manchester City have won three and two games have ended in a draw.

Real Madrid have been brilliant at home this season. The Los Blancos in La Liga have won 11, drawn 4 and have lost just once at home this season. In the Champions League, Madrid has lost just once this season and has won 8 out of the 10 games they have played. Madrid has an average win rate of 80% at home in the Champions League and collects 2.40 points on average per game. The Los Blancos have won 4 games on the trot at home.

Manchester City on the contrary have been decent away from home in the Champions League this season. The Citizens have not lost a single game away from home though they have drawn many games. City has won 1 game, and drawn 4 on the road in Europe this season. Man City averaged 2.33 points away with a win percentage of 67%.

Madrid has not conceded a single goal in the Champions League in the last 346 minutes in the competition keeping three clean sheets, however, their defensive might will be tested once Erling Haaland and co enter their yard.

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Real Madrid vs Manchester City Predictions and Betting Tips

As per the bookmakers, Manchester City goes into this game as slight favourites to win. According to this season’s statistics, Madrid in the Champions League tends to score 2.40 goals on average this season. Vinicius Jr and Karim Benzema will be the favourites to be amongst the goals for Real Madrid. Vinicius Jr has been a fantastic servant for Real Madrid in the Champions. The goal scorer in last year's Champions League final has seven goals and five assists in his last 10 starts for Madrid. The Brazilian winger has either scored or assisted in each of his last 10 appearances. Hence, we predict Vinicius Jr to be the odds-on favourite to score. Thibaut Courtois could be among the saves on Wednesday. The Belgian keeper has prevented 9.9 goals in the Champions League from the start of last season. Putting a punt on Courtois to save 3 or more shots on target can gain returns.

Erling Haaland is not only one of the most prolific strikers in the Premier League but is one in the Champions League as well. The Norwegian has scored 35 goals in 27 Champions League games with his minutes per goal ratio of 58 being the best in the Champions League history as of now (minimum 5 goals). Erling Haaland is the odds-on favourite for Manchester City to score. Manchester City have been off late conceding a lot of goals. The Citizens have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 4 Premier League games. Real Madrid has a brilliant scoring record at home so we do not expect Manchester City to come out with a clean sheet.

Final Prediction:Manchester City to beat Real Madrid

Real Madrid Player List

Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Luis Lopez

Defenders: Eder Militao, David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Jesus Vallejo, Nacho, Alvaro Odriozola, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy, Vinicius Augusto

Midfielders: Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Lucas Vasquez, Aurelien Tchouameni, Dani Ceballos

Attackers:Vinicius Jr, Eden Hazard, Karim Benzema, Rodrygo, Marco Asensio, Mariano

Real Madrid's Playing XI

Player

Role

Thibaut Courtois

Goalkeeper

Nacho

Defender

Eder Militao

Defender

Antonio Rudiger

Defender

David Alaba

Defender

Dani Ceballos

Midfielder

Eduardo Camavinga

Midfielder

Luka Modric

Midfielder

Federico Valverde

Midfielder

Rodrygo

Attacker

Vinicius Jr

Attacker

Real Madrid Team Form(Last five-game): L, W, L, W, W

Manchester City Player List

Goalkeepers: Scott Carson, Ederson, Stefan Ortega Moreno

Defenders: Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake, Ruben Dias, Sergio Gomez, Aymeric Laporte, Rico Lewis, John Stones, Kyle Walker

Midfielders: Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Ilkay Gundogan, Rodrigo, Cole Palmer, Maximo Perrone, Kalvin Phillips, Bernardo Silva

Attackers: Erling Haaland, Riyad Mahrez, Julian Alvarez

Manchester City Playing XI

Player

Role

Ederson

Goalkeeper

John Stones

Defender

Ruben Dias

Defender

Manuel Akanji

Defender

Kyle Walker

Defender

Rodrigo

Midfielder

Ilkay Gundogan

Midfielder

Bernardo Silva

Midfielder

Riyad Mahrez

Attacker

Erling Haaland

Attacker

Jack Grealish

Attacker

Manchester City Team Form(Last five games): W, W, W, W, W

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Head-To-Head

Matches Played:8

Real Madrid wins:3

Manchester City wins:3

Matches are drawn:2

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Betting Odds

The odds of Real Madrid winning are set at 3.37. Manchester City are the favourites to win with their odds being set at 2.32. The odds of the match ending in a draw are set at 3.83. The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win: Manchester City

This is a tough result to predict. Real Madrid is the reigning Champions of Europe. They have won this competition more than any other team. Madrid is generally hailed as one of the most clutch teams in the Champions League. Madrid’s never say die attitude to win games from losing positions has happened way too often just to be a fluke. Carlo Ancelotti and his team however have not been really good in La Liga this season. There is some sort of a weakness in this Madrid side. If Chelsea could have been more clinical in the quarter-finals against Madrid it definitely would not have been as easy a tie as the scoreline suggested. Madrid does present their opponents with a lot of chances.

Manchester City just looks like a complete beast of a team this season. The Citizens have one of the best strikers in Erling Haaland which many say is the missing piece of Pep Guardiola’s puzzle to win his 1st Champions League title since 2011. City has the better momentum and looks like a complete side capable of beating any team. City are favourites to win this time however one should never rule Real Madrid out in the Champions League.

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Shankar Shekh

Sportscafe's author

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