AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton Match Prediction

AFCB

87%

Chance of Winning

SHFC

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Sep 30, 202410:00 PM

England

Vitality Stadium

Monday night football will witness a South Coast derby as AFC Bournemouth welcome Southampton to the Vitality Stadium in the Premier League. Both teams went into this with unfavourable results last week.

AFC Bournemouth travelled to Anfield to face Liverpool. The Cherries thought that they got off to a perfect start after Semenyo put them ahead only for VAR to rule it out due to offside. Kepa made some good saves but ultimately made a huge blunder in clearing a long ball as he was beaten by Diaz for the opener. Liverpool did not look back as Diaz and Nunez added two more before halftime. Bournemouth’s best chance of scoring in the second half came when Sinisterra’s flicked effort was saved by Kelleher palming it onto the post.

Southampton in their last game against Ipswich could not believe how they did not end up on the winning side. The Saints got off to a perfect start as Dibling scored from a Lallana assist. Cameron Archer was put through in the 27th minute, but his shot was scuffed due to him slipping with that attempt hitting the post. Archer had another attempt in the second half to kill the game as the ball fell in a perfect position for him. Archer hit the ball straight at Muric. Sam Morsy rubbed salt in Southampton’s wounds by scoring in the last minute, enabling Ipswich to rescue a point.

Facts:

AFC Bournemouth got their promotion into the Premier League in 2016, and their first memories of playing Southampton were very good. The Cherries were victorious against the Saints. However, since 2016, Bournemouth have not been able to win a single Premier League fixture against Southampton, losing 3 out of the total 5 games they have played and drawing 2.
Southampton have defensively been absolutely resolute in the last 3 Premier League games they have played against AFC Bournemouth. The Saints failed to let in a single goal against the Cherries, keeping a clean sheet in each of their last 3 games at the St. Mary’s stadium. The record for Southampton to keep consecutive clean sheets away from home is 4, which they got against Swansea.
Bournemouth at the moment are in a very tough place in terms of form as they have failed to string a good run of results. The Cherries have won 1 of their last 8 games in the Premier League, drawing 2 and losing 5. Before this run, Bournemouth won 5 of the 8 games, drawing 1 and losing 2.
Southampton’s draw against Ipswich Town was their first point of this season in the Premier League. They now have 4 losses and 1 draw from their opening 5 fixtures. This is Southampton’s worst start in the Premier League since the 1998/99 season, where they had 5 losses from 5 with no points on the board.
AFC Bournemouth do not have a great record when it comes to playing on Monday night in the Premier League. The Cherries have won just 1 of their last 7 games played on Monday. They have lost 5 of those 7 games. Bournemouth has a 71% loss rate playing on a Monday. This is the highest loss percentage by any Premier League team on a Monday who have played a minimum of 5 games on this day.

AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between AFC Bournemouth and Southampton largely favours the Saints in this case. In the last 17 games between these two sides in all competitions, AFC Bournemouth have 4 wins; 4 games have ended in a stalemate with Southampton winning 9 times.

Southampton have a superior record over Bournemouth in terms of the head-to-head; however, the dynamic recently has changed. Bournemouth are a team that have taken to the Premier League and are a standing member. Southampton in recent seasons have gone down and come up more often.

Bournemouth, in every aspect right now, are the better team. In their first 5 games of the season, they suffered 2 losses, and those losses have come against top teams Chelsea and Liverpool. Against Chelsea, they surely should have got more, as they were very unlucky with Evanilson missing a penalty.

Southampton, on the other hand, look devoid of ideas when it comes to attacking. Their best attacking outlet at the moment is a teenage prodigy from their youth set up in Tyler Dibling. The youngster scored last week; hence, a lot of expectations will once again rest on his shoulders, not only for this game but also for the season. Based on everything right now, it is Bournemouth who easily have the better chance of winning over Southampton on Monday night.

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AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton Predictions and Betting Tips

According to the bookies, AFC Bournemouth have been massively tipped to beat Southampton easily in this game. The odds gap between the two clubs sees AFC Bournemouth as massive favourites to win, with Southampton as big underdogs. AFC Bournemouth in their last home game did lose to Chelsea; however, they should have got more in that game. Even against Liverpool, they were quite good early on in the game. Southampton could not get the better of even Ipswich Town at home. That was their first point of the season after losing four games before that. Hence, the oddsmakers also do not see them getting anything in this game.

AFC Bournemouth have also not had a very good start to the season; however, they have 5 points on the board courtesy of 1 win and 2 draws from their 5 games. Bournemouth are yet to win at home. The Cherries were highly unlucky in these games. Bournemouth at home have been scoring way too little. They average 0.5 goals from an average expected goals ratio of 1.77. They are highly underperforming in this aspect.

Southampton away from home have lost both of their games this season. They are poor in all aspects of the game, but their attacking play is at its worst. Southampton’s expected goals average away from home is 1.73 goals, and they too, like Bournemouth, average 0.5 goals.

Our tips and predictions for this game are as follows: Our call is for AFC Bournemouth to win this game quite comfortably. The Cherries to score 2 or more goals is our call in this game. Southampton away from home do not have a very good defensive record. They have conceded 2 goals on average from an expected goals against ratio of 1.18.

In terms of the left-hand side of Bournemouth, we do believe that Milos Kerkez will have a tough day against Tyler Dibling on Tuesday under the lights. Tyler Dibling has been one of Southampton’s starting players. His game against Manchester United, where he put Dalot under so much pressure and won a penalty, showed what an asset he is. Dalot in that game made 4 fouls against Dibling, and Leif Davis for Ipswich made 2 fouls. Kerkez has a history of bringing down his wingers. Kerkez has 1 foul minimum per game. Hence our prediction is that Milos Kerkez will commit 2 or more fouls in this game.

A risky but decent shout would be to bet that Bournemouth scored from a set piece. The Cherries do not have a good record when it comes to scoring from dead ball situations this year. Southampton, however, have a very poor record when it comes to conceding from set pieces. The Saints have conceded 4 goals from corners and 5 from other set pieces. Bournemouth have the likes of Senesi and Zabarnyi, who are tall centre backs capable of scoring from a set piece. Lewis Cook, alongside teammate Justin Kluivert, has committed the most fouls with 14 and 15 fouls, respectively. Cook and Kluivert have also been booked three times each in the Premier League this season. Our prediction is for Lewis Cook to get a yellow card in this game.

In terms of scoring, we back Antoine Semenyo to score. The winger has been really good for Bournemouth this season and is their leading scorer with 2 goals. He also averages 4.8 shots per game, which is the highest of all players on his team. Hence our prediction here is for Semenyo to register 2 or more shots in this game and score 1 goal.

Final Prediction:AFC Bournemouth to beat Southampton

AFC Bournemouth Player List

Goalkeepers: Neto, Will Dennis, Mark Travers, Alex Paulsen

Defenders: Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez, Chris Mepham, Adam Smith, James Hill, Marcos Senesi, Illia Zabarnyi, Max Aarons, Julian Araujo

Midfielders: Lewis Cook, David Brooks, Romain Favre, Ryan Christie, Alex Scott, Marcus Tavernier, Hamed Traore, Gavin Kilkenny, Philip Billing, Tyler Adams

Attackers:Dango Ouattara, Justin Kluivert, Enes Unal, Antoine Semenyo, Jaidon Anthony, Luis Sinesterra, Evanilson

AFC Bournemouth Playing XI

Player	Role
Neto	Goalkeeper
Adam Smith	Defender
Illia Zabarnyi	Defender
Marcos Senesi	Defender
Milos Kerkez	Defender
Ryan Christie	Midfielder
Alex Scott	Midfielder
Philip Billing	Midfielder
Antoine Semenyo	Attacker
Justin Kluivert	Attacker
Evanilson	Attacker

AFC Bournemouth Team Form(Last five games): L, L, W, L, D

Southampton Player List

Goalkeepers: Alex McCarthy, Joe Lumley, Mateusz Lis, Gavin Bazunu

Defenders: Kyle Walker-Peters, Ryan Manning, Jack Stephens, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Ronnie Edwards, James Bree, Nathan Wood, Yukinari Sugawara, Charlie Taylor, Juan Larios, Jan Bedranek

Midfielders: Flynn Downes, Joe Aribo, Will Smallbone, Adam Lallana, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Carlos Alcaraz, Samuel Edozie, Shea Charles, Sam Amo-Ameyaw, Tyler Dibling

Attackers:Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart, Ben Brereton Diaz, Sekou Mara.

Southampton Playing XI

Player	Role
Alex McCarthy	Goalkeeper
Yukinari Sugawara	Defender
Taylor Harwood-Bellis	Defender
Jan Bedranek	Defender
Jack Stephens	Defender
Kyle Walker-Peters	Defender
Flynn Downes	Midfielder
William Smallbone	Midfielder
Joe Aribo	Attacker
Ben Brereton Diaz	Attacker
Tyler Dibling	Attacker

Southampton Team Form(Last five games): D, D, L, L, W

AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton Head-To-Head

Matches Played:34

AFC Bournemouth wins:9

Southampton wins: 16

Matches are drawn:9

AFC Bournemouth vs Southampton Betting Odds

AFC Bournemouth to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.65.

Southampton to win the match (PARIMATCH): 5.00.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.35.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

AFC Bournemouth

The oddsmakers have backed AFC Bournemouth to win this game against Southampton in the Premier League on Monday night under the lights. We also support that call, as Bournemouth have been highly unlucky in some of their opening games. They should have led against Chelsea and Liverpool, but other unfortunate reasons saw them get nothing from those games. Bournemouth, however, has the arsenal to get past teams like Southampton.

The Saints under Russell Martin have started very poorly. They were on the verge of winning against Ipswich Town, only for them to lose the lead in the last minute. Playing away from home is going to be a challenge for Southampton in every game, and we do not believe that they have a good enough midfield and defence to hold AFC Bournemouth. Hence our prediction is an easy home win at the Vitality Stadium. The Cherries to win 3-1 against the Saints is our call here.

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