BHAFC (Brighton & Hove Albion) vs NUFC (Newcastle United) Match Prediction
England
Amex Stadium
Brighton was shocked last week by West Ham United. David Moyes got his first win as manager against the Seagulls by beating them 3-1. The Hammers in the entire game had just 21.5% of the ball. Brighton had an early chance to take the lead as Estupinan cut across a fine pass to Gilmour who hit a powerful shot which brushed through West Ham’s goalpost. West Ham played most of the game on the counter and took the lead as Antonio squared the ball to Ward-Prowse was saved by Gilmour but the new signing was there to tuck in the rebound.
Ewan Ferguson had a fantastic chance to level things up just after West Ham’s goal but Areola was there to save. Brighton had most of the ball but West Ham kept their lines tight which allowed the hosts to only shoot from distance. Areola made another blinding save to deny Ewan Ferguson once again to level things in the 46th minute. The Seagulls would then rue that missed chance as West Ham on the counter went on to double things as Benrahma squared a cross to find Bowen on the right to make it 2-0. It got worse for Brighton as Antonio made it 3-0 with a thumping finish. Brighton just couldn’t make their chances count. The Seagulls got a consolation through Pascal Gross in the 83rd minute but it came too late handing Roberto De Zerbi’s men their first defeat of the season.
For Newcastle United, it went from bad to worse in no time. Liverpool had been feeling the pressure since the start of the game as Tren Alexander Arnold was lucky to have not to be sent off early for a 2nd yellow card offence. It got worse for Alexander-Arnold as Gordon latched onto a miss-controlled attempt by the fullback which put him through on goal. Gordon calmly slotted in his shot between Allison’s legs to give Newcastle United the lead. It got worse for Liverpool as Virgil Van Dijk was sent off just three minutes after the goal for fouling Alexander Isak who was through on goal. Allison made one of the saves of the season to deny Almiron’s shot that was certainly going in. A match-defining moment. The Geordies had chances through Tonali and Almiron to double the lead. The night however belonged to Darwin Nunez who came on in the 77th minute to score a brace out of nothing and win the game for Liverpool.
Facts
- Brighton & Hove Albion have lost two of their last three games against Newcastle United. The Seagulls before these games did not lose any of their 9 games against the Geordies winning 4 and drawing 5.
- Newcastle United have failed to win any of their last six games at the Amex Stadium. The last time Newcastle United won at the Amex was when they played in the Championship in 2017.
- The last time Brighton lost two consecutive games in a row was the second and third game of Roberto De Zerbi’s tenure when he succeeded Graham Potter as manager of Brighton in the middle of last season.
- Before the consecutive defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool, Newcastle United had only lost 2 of the 15 games in the Premier League.
- The Seagulls in the Premier League this season top the charts for most shots, most shots on target and touches in the opposition box. De Zerbi’s men also have the highest expected goals average in the Premier League.
- The Seagulls have scored at least a goal in each of their last 19 Premier League games. If the Seagulls score on Saturday, they will get closer to their record of scoring in 22 consecutive league games, a feat they achieved in 2011.
- Pascal Gross became Brighton and Hove Albion’s all-time leading goal scorer in the Premier League after he scored his side's only goal against West Ham United last week.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Chance of Winning
It is quite a close competition when it comes to the recent head-to-head record between Brighton and Newcastle United. In the last 17 games between these two sides, Brighton has won 6 games; 6 fixtures have ended in a draw with Newcastle United winning 5 times. Last season the fixture between these two sides at the Amex Stadium ended in a goalless draw.
Brighton faced a massive setback against West Ham United last week. The Seagulls did not do anything that wrong as they dominated the game in almost every aspect. Where De Zerbi’s men struggled was the ability to defend counter-attacks. Brighton will have also wanted to be more clinical in front of goal.
For Newcastle, it was a similar story against Liverpool. The more worrying issue for the Geordies is how they weren’t able to kill the game considering Liverpool was playing most of the game with 10 men. Eddie Howe’s men were wasteful with their chances and the loss of Sven Botman towards the end of the game weakened their defence.
This will be quite a close game between the two sides. Both these teams are tactically astute and will look to get their form on track by winning. Based on the fine margins, we believe Brighton has a slightly better chance of winning this one.
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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Predictions and Betting Tips
As per the bookmakers, Newcastle United venture into this game as minor odds-on favourites to win against Brighton on Saturday.
Brighton was somehow very unlucky when it came to scoring. The Seagulls failed to break down West Ham United's low block. De Zerbi’s side remains a very good side and we believe that they will look to respond to their defeat in a better fashion.
We expect both teams in this game to score. Brighton due to being so attacking leaves a lot of holes in the back, West Ham being the last side to exploit it. The Seagulls have also failed to keep a single clean sheet this season. Newcastle United too have struggled defensively, letting in 4 goals already this campaign. Sven Botman’s injury makes Newcastle United more prone to conceding a goal.
In terms of scoring, Ewan Ferguson if he starts will be our pick to back. The young Brighton striker was very unlucky not to find the back of the net. If De Zerbi does start with him we suggest putting your money on Ferguson. Mitoma and Solly March are safer shouts, however, Ferguson could get you higher returns.
Anthony Gordon has started in fantastic fashion for Newcastle United this season. The winger has been directly involved in three of Newcastle United's last four goals. Gordan is also a high-risk high reward to back considering he is in good form. Other notable and safer options for Newcastle United include Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron.
Final Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion to beat Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion Player List
Goalkeepers: Bart Verbruggen, Jason Steele, Tom McGill
Defenders: Tariq Lamptey, Igor Julio, Adam Webster, Lewis Dunk, Jan Paul van Hecke, Pervis Estupinan, Joel Veltman
Midfielders: James Milner, Solly March, Mahmoud Dahoud, Billy Gilmour, Pascal Gross, Adam Lallana, Jakub Moder, Steven Alzate, Kaoru Mitoma, Andrew Moran, Facundo Buonanotte
Attackers:Joao Pedro, Julio Enciso, Danny Welbeck, Simon Adingra, Evan Ferguson, Andi Zeqiri
Brighton & Hove Albion Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Jason Steele |
Goalkeeper |
|
James Milner |
Defender |
|
Adam Webster |
Defender |
|
Lewis Dunk |
Defender |
|
Pervis Estupinan |
Defender |
|
Pascal Gross |
Midfielder |
|
Billy Gilmour |
Midfielder |
|
Solly March |
Midfielder |
|
Evan Ferguson |
Attacker |
|
Kaoru Mitoma |
Attacker |
|
Danny Welbeck |
Attacker |
Brighton & Hove Albion Team Form(Last five games): L, W, W, D, L
Newcastle United Player List
Goalkeepers: Martin Dubravka, Mark Gillespie, Nick Pope, Loris Karius
Defenders: Paul Dummett, Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles, Tino Livramento, Kieran Trippier, Emil Kraft, Javier Manquillo, Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Matt Targett, Lewis Hall
Midfielders: Matt Richie, Ryan Fraser, Jacob Murphy, Miguel Almiron, Joe Willock, Sean Longstaff, Bruno Guimares, Elliot Anderson, Sandro Tonali, Lewis Miley, Joelinton, Issac Hayden, Jeff Hendrick
Attackers:Callum Wilson, Harvey Barnes, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon
Newcastle United Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Nick Pope |
Goalkeeper |
|
Kieran Trippier |
Defender |
|
Fabian Schar |
Defender |
|
Jamal Lascelles |
Defender |
|
Dan Burn |
Defender |
|
Sandro Tonali |
Midfielder |
|
Joe Willock |
Midfielder |
|
Bruno Guimares |
Midfielder |
|
Miguel Almiron |
Attacker |
|
Alexander Isak |
Attacker |
|
Harvey Barnes |
Attacker |
Newcastle United Team Form(Last five-game): L, L, W, W, W
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Head-To-Head
Matches Played:32
Brighton & Hove Albion wins:12
Newcastle United wins:11
Matches are drawn:9
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Betting Odds
The odds of Brighton winning are set at 2.70. Newcastle United are the minor favourites to win with their odds being set at 2.56. The odds of the match ending in a draw are set at 4.10. The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win: Brighton & Hove Albion
This is a very difficult game to predict as both sides do not have much to be distinguished on. We however that Brighton will go into this game as slight favourites to win. The Seagulls were somehow unlucky to not find the net against the Hammers. On another day Ewan Ferguson’s attempts would have found the back of the net. The only worry for Brighton is their defence. De Zerbi’s men have already conceded 5 goals in their last three games.
Newcastle United on the other hand just lost their heads towards the end of the game. The Geordies had the entire game under control but failed to finish their early chances. Newcastle United will come into this game under more pressure having lost two consecutive games and visiting the Amex Stadium is not going to be an easy task. Sven Botman missing in the centre of defence through injury could also prove to be a worry for Eddie Howe’s men.
