Burnley vs Brentford Match Prediction

BURL

41%

Chance of Winning

BFC

59%

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England

Turf Moor

Burnley are all set to host Brentford in the Premier League at Turf Moor on Saturday. Burnley continues to sit 19th in the Premier League table with the same amount of points as bottom team Sheffield United. A win for Burnley in this game could cut their gap to the safety spots from 7 to 4 points. A loss here would put one of their foot in the relegation grave. Brentford meanwhile still are also in 15th place in the Premier League table. Last week’s results for Brentford and the teams around them did not change much. Brentford could go level on points with Palace in 14th if they win. However, if they lose and Forest beats Luton then that could see Brentford and Forest exchanging places.

Burnley in their last Premier League game travelled to the London Stadium to face West Ham United. David Datro Fofana gave the visitors the shock lead as he struck a venomous strike from 25 yards to beat Areola in goal. It got better for Kompany’s men as Cullen’s cross across the box was horrendously cleared by Mavropanos and went straight into his net to allow Burnley a 2-0 lead at the break. West Ham pulled the game by the string in the 2nd half with an early goal from Paqueta. Burnley were defending for their lives as West Ham had a goal ruled out for offside as well. Danny Ings however got the equaliser late into added time as Burnley left London with just a point after leading at half-time.

Brentford visited the Emirates Stadium to visit Arsenal in their game. Arsenal were dominant in the 1st half and Declan Rice scored the first goal to give Arsenal the lead. Just before halftime, Brentford got back in the game as Ramsdale made a horror mistake to allow Wissa to score into an empty net. In the 2nd half, Brentford had some chances to get into the lead as Toney’s volleyed effort was well saved by Ramsdale. The Arsenal keeper also made a brilliant save to deny Collins from a header. However, Havertz finally got the winner in the 86th minute for the Gunners leaving Brentford hard done.

Facts:

  • Burnley has had a good record against Brentford whilst playing at Turf Moor in League games. The Clarets have lost just 1 of their last 11 home games to the Bees, drawing 4 and winning 6. Burnley beat Brentford 3-1 in their last PL game at the Turf Moor back in 2021.
  • Brentford in the reverse fixture were 3-0 victors at the GTECH Community Stadium. The Bees could register only their 2nd league double over Burnley in their history if they win on Saturday. They last registered a league double over Burnley in the second tier of English Football way back in 1934/35.
  • Brentford were on a 5 game winning run against promoted sides from the Championship however their 1-0 loss to Sheffield United derailed that run. If the Bees lose to Burnley it will be the 1st time in their history that they will have lost back-to-back games against promoted teams.

Burnley vs Brentford Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford ever so marginally favours the team in Claret going into this game. In the last 5 encounters between these two teams in all competitions, Brentford has won 2 matchups, no games ended in a draw with Burnley winning 3 times.

Burnley in their last game performed like a unit, something Kompany has often been crying out for. The inclusion of Fofana upfront has made a huge difference to their overall play as the striker is getting in some key scoring positions. Fofana is also putting pressure on opposition defences enabling his defence to step out due to less pressure. Opponents are now looking at Fofana and paying heed which enables spaces also for the other Burnley attackers. With Brentford also not having the best defences, if Burnley can create for Fofana then they could get something from this game.

Brentford in their last game showed that they can still suffocate their opponents. If Thomas Frank can get those tactics right we can see Burnley having problems scoring in this game. For us, Brentford have a better chance of winning because they do have the likes of Wissa, Maupay and Toney upfront. Their defence is also much equipped to deal with Burnley’s attackers making them the favourites.

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Burnley vs Brentford Predictions and Betting Tips

The oddsmakers have once again gone against Burnley winning at home by backing Brentford in this game. The odds difference between these two sides are not humongous due to many factors. Both Burnley and Brentford have been two teams who are really in a bad run of form. Both teams just have 1 draw in their last 5 games to show for. The home team being in the relegation places makes them underdogs.

Burnley have been worse at home in comparison to when they play away. They still just have 1 win to show from 14 games. They have lost a mammoth 11 games. The Clarets averages just 0.93 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.05 whilst playing at Turf Moor. The Bees on the other hand do have a much better record when in comparison with Burnley. Brentford averaged 1.14 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.30. They also tend to win 21% of their away games. Based on the figures indicated above we do expect Brentford to perform better in this game. The Bees are to score 2 or more goals in our call for this game.

The major factor is Burnley’s defensive record which is horrendous as they concede 2.43 goals on average on their home ground this season. Burnley go into this game having failed to score in 50% of their home games this season. However, we back the home team to score at least 1 goal in this game. Brentford have kept a clean sheet in just 21% of their away games but we do believe that Brentford will concede in this game. In terms of winning first halves, Brentford is miles better than that of Burnley. Vincent Komany’s men have won 14% of their 1st halves at Turf Moor in comparison to Brentford who have won 29% of their away games in the first 45. Burnley to trail to Brentford at the halftime stage is our call for this game.

In terms of scoring first, Brentford do have one of the best records in the league this season even due to their poor season. Brentford have found the back of the net first in 15 of their 28 games in the Premier League this season with a 54% record. Burnley meanwhile have scored 1st in just 11 of their 28 games this season. Based on how they performed against a top team in Arsenal last week. We do expect Brentford to start this game quickly and score the 1st goal in front of the home fans.

Burnley appeared to have found a goal scorer at last who is turning out to be quite consistent. David Datro Fofana, the Chelsea loanee is our favourite player to score for Burnley. The striker has been in good form since his arrival in January and has scored 3 goals and assisted 1 since his arrival. Fofana’s pace could be worrisome for the Bees in this game.

Yoane Wissa’s return from the AFCON has given Brentford another attacking threat. Much emphasis is always on Toney but Wissa has been quickly stealing the limelight in recent games. Wissa has scored at least a goal in each of his last 3 games in the League and goes in for us as a favourite to continue his form against a struggling Burnley team. This could be the 1st time in his top-division career that Wissa could score in 4 consecutive games.

Final Prediction:Brentford to beat Burnley.

Burnley Player List

Goalkeepers: James Trafford, Denis Franchi, Lawrence Vigouroux, Arijanet Muric

Defenders: Dara O’Shea, Charlie Taylor, CJ Egan-Riley, Connor Roberts, Hjalmar Ekdal, Vitinho, Ameen Al Dakhil, Jordan Beyer, Luke McNally, Owen Dodgson, Hannes Delcroix

Midfielders: Jack Cork, Johann Gudmundson, Josh Brownhill, Scott Twine, Sander Berge, Aaron Ramsey, Josh Cullen, Samuel Bastien, Mike Tresor, Han-Noah Massengo

Attackers:Jay Rodriguez, Lyle Foster, Benson Manuel, Anass Zaroury, Darko Churlinov, Micheal Obafemi, Jacob Brunn Larsen, Luca Koleosho, Zeki Amdouni, Wilson Odobert

Burnley Playing XI

Player

Role

James Trafford

Goalkeeper

Vitinho

Defender

Ameen Al Dakhil

Defender

Dara O’Shea

Defender

Hjalmar Ekdal

Defender

Josh Cullen

Midfielder

Josh Brownhill

Midfielder

Johann Gudmundson

Midfielder

Wilson Odobert

Attacker

Zeki Amdouni

Attacker

David Datro Fofana

Attacker

Burnley Team Form(Last five games): D, L, L, L, L

Brentford Player List

Goalkeepers: Mark Flekken, Matthew Cox, Thomas Strakosha, Ellery Balcombe

Defenders: Rico Henry, Ethan Pinnock, Kristoffer Ajer, Mads Roerslev, Aaron Hickey, Ben Mee, Mathias Jorgensen, Nathan Collins, Charlie Goode

Midfielders: Christian Norgaard, Mathias Jensen, Josh Dasilva, Yoane Wissa, Frank Onyeka, Bryan Mbeumo, Myles Peart-Harris, Shandon Baptiste, Vitaly Janelt, Mikkel Damsgaard, Yehor Yarmoliuk

Attackers:Saman Ghoddos, Ivan Toney, Keane Lewis-Potter, Kevin Schade, Neal Maupay

Brentford Playing XI

Player

Role

Mark Flekken

Goalkeeper

Kristoffer Ajer

Defender

Ethan Pinnock

Defender

Nathan Collins

Defender

Vitaly Janelt

Defender

Christian Norgaard

Midfielder

Frank Onyeka

Midfielder

Mathias Jensen

Midfielder

Mikkel Damsgaard

Attacker

Ivan Toney

Attacker

Neal Maupay

Attacker

Brentford Team Form(Last five games): L, D, L, L, L

Burnley vs Brentford Head-To-Head

Matches Played:33

Burnley wins:13

Brentford wins:10

Matches are drawn:10

Burnley vs Brentford Betting Odds

Burnley to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.20.

Brentford to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.20.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.70.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Brentford

The bookies back Brentford to win this game against Burnley at Turf Moor on Saturday and we in turn agree with them. Burnley in their last game at West Ham looked resilient having latched onto a 2-goal lead however their defence could not sustain the pressure as they allowed West Ham to get back into the game. It was, however, a better showing for Vincent Kompany’s men that would give his team a lot of confidence.

Brentford on the other hand made it difficult for Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. The Bees looked well-organised in that game. It took a late winner from Havertz to get the win. Even though they lost, Thomas Frank defensively would be much happier with that performance. Hence we do back Brentford to get past Burnley in this game. The Bees have individuals who know how to get the job done. With Burnley being poor at home this season we do expect Brentford to win 2-1 in this game on Saturday.

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