BURL (Burnley) vs BHAFC (Brighton & Hove Albion) Match Prediction

BURL

43%

Chance of Winning

BHAFC

57%

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Apr 13, 202405:00 PM

England

Turf Moor

Burnley are set to welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Turf Moor in the Premier League on Saturday. Burnley continues to remain second-bottom in the league 6 points behind the safety spot of 17th place. Burnley have to now capitalise when their rivals slip up. They have to make most of their home games if they want to continue in the Premier League next season. Burnley in their last game travelled to Goodison Park to face Everton. The Clarets were dominated by Everton in most spells of the game. Muric in goal has been good for them however his poor clearance came off Calvert-Lewin and looped over his head just before halftime. A poor time to concede for Vincent Kompany. Muric kept them in the game after denying Calvert-Lewin 2 more golden chances. Dara O’Shea’s sending off in the 67th minute made things more difficult for the visitors. Brownhill had the best chance with his strike inches off the post for Burnley. Another gut-wrenching defeat for Kompany and his men in the relegation battle.

Brighton had nothing to offer in their game against Arsenal last week. The Seagulls were flat right from the go as Lamptey fouled Jesus in the box to concede a penalty that Saka took to give Arsenal the lead. The Gunners could have had more in the game with Verbruggen doing well enough to deny Gabriel and Jesus. The Seagulls could not turn the tide in the second half as Havertz finally settled the tie after scoring in the 62nd minute. Former Brighton player Trossard came on and put the cherry on the cake for Arsenal by making it 3-0. More salt rubbed on De Zerbi’s existing wounds as Brighton succumbed to only their 2nd defeat at home this season.

Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton & Hove Albion has been very competitive and is split dead even with no team having the advantage. In the last 19 encounters between these two teams in all competitions, Brighton & Hove Albion have won 5 matchups, 9 games have ended in a draw with Burnley also winning 5 times.

Burnley are making themselves difficult to beat especially at home in recent games. Their performances have improved ever since they have gone up top with 2 strikers. Brighton are a team that are very shaky from home. If Burnley can use the Brentford game as a template and be good on the counter and defend deep then they could get the better of Brighton at home.

The Seagulls on the other hand need to do better in front of the goal. They have tightened up at the back but that has affected their attacking output. Burnley has no pushovers at home this season and needs to be wary of that. If Joao Pedro is fit, he needs to start as his leading upfront gives the Seagulls a different dimension. In terms of personnel Brighton is a better team who also tends to do well against bottom clubs. They also have the likes of Enciso returning and hence we give them a better chance of winning in this game on Saturday in the Premier League.

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Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions and Betting Tips

The oddsmakers in this game have a clear favourite but the odds are not overwhelmingly in favour of that team. Brighton & Hove Albion are the favourites to win this game because of the overall team that they have on paper. Burnley surprisingly has the better form of the two.

Burnley came into this game on the back of having lost none of their last 2 home games. Because of this their win percentage has taken an upward trajectory with them now having a 13% win ratio. Kompany’s men have also been boosted in terms of their attacking output as they now are averaging a goal every game from an expected goals ratio of 1.10 at Turf Moor. Brighton as per their standards has had a very poor record away from home this season. They still have a better record than Burnley but that’s surely not where the Brighton away support may have envisioned before the season. The Seagulls average 1.44 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.55. Their win percentage eclipses that of Burnley as they average 25%. Based on the numbers above we do expect Brighton to do a job over Burnley in this game. Our call is for Brighton to score 2 or more goals in this game at Turf Moor.

The Clarets at home concede 2.25 goals on average this season hence we back the Seagulls to get their goals in this game. We also believe that Burnley will score in this game. The Clarets have scored in 3 of their last 5 games at Turf Moor this season. Brighton have had a very poor defensive record this season. They have conceded in 81% of their away games this season. Burnley have failed to score in 44% of their home games this season. But on current form, we do back Burnley to score in this game.

In terms of scoring first both Burnley and Brighton have quite an even record heading into this. Burnley has a 41% record of opening the scoring in games finding the net in 13 of their 32 games this season. Brighton on the other hand has found the back of the net first in 13 of their 31 games. This game is a close call to predict. However, we will back the home team to break the deadlock considering that Brighton has tended to concede early this season. Hence we back Burnley to score first.

Burnley have a raft of attackers to choose from. They are now setting up as a 4-4-2 with 2 strikers upfront. They have 4 options to choose from so we recommend looking at the lineup an hour before the game. In terms of the best player to back it has to be David Datro Fofana. Brighton has had trouble with quick strikers who play off the defender’s shoulder and Fofana fits that mould. We expect Fofana to score in this game provided he does start.

Danny Welbeck is the best option to back for Brighton when it comes to scoring. Welbeck has been Brighton’s most regular starter at the top with Evan Ferguson out. Joao Pedro is back fit so keep a watch out if he starts in this game. If Pedro indeed starts then we recommend backing him cause he might take penalties as well. If not then back Welbeck. Pascal Gross for an anytime assist in this game is also another tip we recommend.

Final Prediction:Brighton & Hove Albion to beat Burnley.

Burnley Player List

Goalkeepers: James Trafford, Denis Franchi, Lawrence Vigouroux, Arijanet Muric

Defenders: Dara O’Shea, Charlie Taylor, CJ Egan-Riley, Connor Roberts, Hjalmar Ekdal, Vitinho, Ameen Al Dakhil, Jordan Beyer, Luke McNally, Owen Dodgson, Hannes Delcroix

Midfielders: Jack Cork, Johann Gudmundson, Josh Brownhill, Scott Twine, Sander Berge, Aaron Ramsey, Josh Cullen, Samuel Bastien, Mike Tresor, Han-Noah Massengo

Attackers:Jay Rodriguez, Lyle Foster, Benson Manuel, Anass Zaroury, Darko Churlinov, Micheal Obafemi, Jacob Brunn Larsen, Luca Koleosho, Zeki Amdouni, Wilson Odobert

Burnley Playing XI

Burnley Team Form(Last five games): L, D, D, W, D

Brighton & Hove Albion Player List

Goalkeepers: Bart Verbruggen, Jason Steele, Tom McGill

Defenders: Tariq Lamptey, Igor Julio, Adam Webster, Lewis Dunk, Jan Paul van Hecke, Pervis Estupinan, Joel Veltman

Midfielders: James Milner, Solly March, Mahmoud Dahoud, Billy Gilmour, Pascal Gross, Adam Lallana, Jakub Moder, Steven Alzate, Kaoru Mitoma, Andrew Moran, Facundo Buonanotte, Carlos Baleba

Attackers:Joao Pedro, Julio Enciso, Danny Welbeck, Simon Adingra, Evan Ferguson, Andi Zeqiri

Brighton & Hove Albion Playing XI

Brighton & Hove Albion Team Form(Last five games): L, D, L, W, L

Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-To-Head

Matches Played:40

Burnley wins:12

Brighton & Hove Albion wins:12

Matches are drawn:16

Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Odds

Burnley to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.50.

Brighton & Hove Albion to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.04.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.85.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Brighton & Hove Albion

The bookies do have their favourite in this game as they back Brighton & Hove Albion to win at Turf Moor on Saturday. Brighton have not been in the best of touches but their record at Burnley has been quite decent. They tend to do well at Turf Moor. Burnley have recently started to play better football. They have just 1 loss in their 5 games overall which they suffered last week to Everton away.

Brighton on the other hand has just 1 win in their last 5 games overall having won at 20th-placed Sheffield United. We expect the Seagulls to get the job done over here. We do expect Burnley to put up a fight in this game however Brighton in terms of their personnel is too strong. Our prediction in this game is for Brighton to win 2-1 at Turf Moor.

Parimatch

5.0★★★★★

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