BURL (Burnley) vs NUFC (Newcastle United) Match Prediction

BURL

35%

Chance of Winning

NUFC

65%

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May 04, 202405:00 PM

England

Turf Moor

Burnley are set to host Newcastle United at Turf Moor on Saturday in the Premier League. Burnley have given themselves a shot of survival in the Premier League after a run of good results. They still need to back those results up by not letting their guard drop. They are 2 points off Nottingham Forest who sit in the last safety spot on the table. A win for Burnley here and a loss for Forest and Luton Town would take them to 17th spot. Winning home games will be crucial for them. They got a much-needed point in their last game at Old Trafford against Manchester United. It was an end-to-end game where both teams had their chances. Burnley was slightly unlucky as Manchester United should have been out of sight. United did take the lead late through Antony however they conceded a silly penalty after Onana cladded into a Burnley player. Amdouni stepped up from the spot to score and take a point that could be crucial to their survival hopes.

Newcastle United on the other hand kept pressure on Manchester United after winning their game against Sheffield United at St James’ Park. The Blades took a short early lead after their Magpies’ defensive line was caught napping. Post that it was the Isak show. A brace for the Swede, an own goal from Osborn and one goal each for Guimares and a returning Callum Wilson saw them blitz past the Blades in this game. It was a high-octane end-to-end game that Newcastle United triumphed over due to their speedy and incisive attack. Newcastle United are still well-placed to get a Europa League spot.

Burnley vs Newcastle United's Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle United hand s down has always favoured the team from Tyneside in this fixture. In the last 14 encounters between these two teams in all competitions, Newcastle United have won 7 matchups, 5 games have ended in a draw with Burnley winning 2 times.

Burnley were at one point looking destined to get the drop. Their fight in the last 5 games has been commendable as they came out of nowhere with now have a legit shot at survival. They however have to stay away from defeat if they want to survive. They have been scrapping through results and they will know that they are at their best when at home. They will have to make their games at Turf Moor count if they want to avoid relegation.

Newcastle United are a team that can thrash the best of teams at St James’ Park but they do tend to struggle when they are playing away from home. They have the attack to bail them out from tough situations, however. Their defence now without Fabian Schar is a worry. But we do not see them getting a loss here. Isak and Gordon are just too good on the break. Burnley will have to get forward to win and that is where the Magpies are at their most dangerous. Based on everything we do expect Newcastle United to have a better chance of winning.

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Burnley vs Newcastle United Predictions and Betting Tips

The oddsmakers in this game have backed Newcastle United to beat Burnley at Turf Moor on Saturday in the Premier League. Newcastle United are in red hot form at the moment and they come into this having smashed bottom club Sheffield United. The odds between these two sides could have been bigger but Burnley has managed to go on a small undefeated run. Hence the bookies have given the Clarets a small chance in this game.

Burnley goes into this having lost none of their last 3 games at home which has resulted in their win percentage taking an upward trajectory with them now having a 12% win ratio. That is still a low number but it is much better than what it was 3 weeks back. Burnley is not a team that scores dozens of goals every odd game, hence their goal ratio is quite low. Burnley scores an average of just 1 goal from an expected goals ratio of 1.10 at Turf Moor. Newcastle United as per their standards have not been very good away from home this season. The Magpies still have a better record than Burnley but that has cost them being higher up the table. Newcastle United averages 1.63 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.21. Their win percentage on the road is 25% which is still twice as good as Burnley. Based on the numbers above we do expect Newcastle United to easily win this game. Here are our predictions and tips for this game. Our call is for Newcastle United to score 2 or more goals in this game at Turf Moor.

Kompany’s men at home concede 2.25 goals on average this season so that is why we back Gordon and Isak to run riot. We also back Burnley to score in this tie. The Clarets continue to score in their home games at Turf Moor this season. Newcastle continues to deal with a ton of defensive injuries and we can see them having problems here. They have conceded in 87% of their away games this season as well. Burnley has failed to score in 41% of their home games but with Newcastle United’s defensive woes, we do see them scoring.

In terms of scoring first, Newcastle United have a far better record when it comes to scoring first. Burnley has a 43% record of opening the scoring in games finding the net in 15 of their 35 games this season. Newcastle United on the other hand has found the back of the net first in 20 of their 34 games. We will go slightly left field here and predict that Burnley will be the team to open the scoring. We expect them to start strongly like Sheffield United did against Newcastle United.

Burnley this season has been poor in terms of goal-scoring stats. They have never had an out-and-out goal-scoring centre-forward who has continuously scored for them. They have 3 top scorers with 5 goals each from Amdouni, Foster and Bruun Larsen. But based on this we back Lyle Foster to go in as the favourite to score here. Foster is one of their experienced players and we expect him to step up in this game.

For Newcastle United, we continue to back Alexander Isak to score in this game. Isak has been a monster goal machine this season but most of his goals have come at home. His expected goals ratio however continues to be good hence we back him to get his rare away goal. Newcastle United do often win a lot of penalties as well so backing Isak here is a big plus as he takes all of the spot kicks.

Final Prediction:Newcastle United to beat Burnley.

Burnley Player List

Goalkeepers: James Trafford, Denis Franchi, Lawrence Vigouroux, Arijanet Muric

Defenders: Dara O’Shea, Charlie Taylor, CJ Egan-Riley, Connor Roberts, Hjalmar Ekdal, Vitinho, Ameen Al Dakhil, Jordan Beyer, Luke McNally, Owen Dodgson, Hannes Delcroix

Midfielders: Jack Cork, Johann Gudmundson, Josh Brownhill, Scott Twine, Sander Berge, Aaron Ramsey, Josh Cullen, Samuel Bastien, Mike Tresor, Han-Noah Massengo

Attackers:Jay Rodriguez, Lyle Foster, Benson Manuel, Anass Zaroury, Darko Churlinov, Micheal Obafemi, Jacob Brunn Larsen, Luca Koleosho, Zeki Amdouni, Wilson Odobert

Burnley Playing XI

Burnley Team Form(Last five games): D, W, D, L, D

Newcastle United Player List

Goalkeepers: Martin Dubravka, Mark Gillespie, Nick Pope, Loris Karius

Defenders: Paul Dummett, Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles, Tino Livramento, Kieran Trippier, Emil Kraft, Javier Manquillo, Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Matt Targett, Lewis Hall

Midfielders: Matt Richie, Ryan Fraser, Jacob Murphy, Miguel Almiron, Joe Willock, Sean Longstaff, Bruno Guimares, Elliot Anderson, Sandro Tonali, Lewis Miley, Joelinton, Issac Hayden, Jeff Hendrick

Attackers:Callum Wilson, Harvey Barnes, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon

Newcastle United Playing XI

Newcastle United Team Form(Last five games): W, L, W, W, D

Burnley vs Newcastle United Head-To-Head

Matches Played:113

Burnley wins:44

Newcastle United wins:48

Matches are drawn:21

Burnley vs Newcastle United Betting Odds

Burnley to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.45.

Newcastle United to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.01.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.00.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Newcastle United

The bookies do favour Newcastle United to do the job over Burnley quite easily and we second that opinion. The Magpies have been dominating teams at home however their away performances have not been that good this season. We expect this game to be a close affair. Burnley are fighting for their lives and a loss would massively hamper their prospects of survival.

We expect Vincent Kompany’s men to be extra motivated in this game and make it as tough for Newcastle United. We can also see an upset in this game however we believe that the Newcastle United attack has it in them to outscore teams and that is why we will back Eddie Howe and co in this game. Our prediction in this game is a 3-2 Newcastle United win at Turf Moor.

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