BURL (Burnley) vs NFFC (Nottingham Forest) Match Prediction

BURL

49%

Chance of Winning

NFFC

51%

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England

Turf Moor

Burnley are set to welcome Nottingham Forest in the final game of the Premier League season at Turf Moor. Burnley will be getting relegated this season as their loss last week mathematically ruled safety out for them. Burnley, in their last game, travelled to London to face Tottenham Hotspur. They got the perfect start as Jacob Brunn Larsen put them in the lead as Sander Berge’s sublime pass found the winger, who slotted his shot past Vicario. Their lead lasted for only 7 minutes as Pedro Porro equalised for the Spurs. Burnley did well to stay in the game, as Spurs had many chances to kill off the game. It was Van de Ven, finally, in the 82nd minute, who ended Burnley’s hopes by striking a vicious shot that beat Muric in goal.

Nottingham Forest have now all but secured their safety for next season, as Luton Town could not capitalise last week. Forest is now 3 points ahead of Luton Town with a superior goal difference. Nottingham Forest will have to lose to Burnley by six goals, and Luton Town will need to beat Fulham by six goals for the former to be relegated. Nottingham Forest, in their last game, threw the game away in the final moments against Chelsea. Chelsea took the lead through Mudryk, but Forest equalised eight minutes later through Willy Boly. In the second half, the Tricky Trees took the lead through Hudson-Odoi. Forest was in control, but suddenly they lost their focus, and Chelsea took advantage of that, scoring two goals in the space of two minutes to turn the tie around. Goals from Raheem Sterling and the winner from Nicolas Jackson left Forest empty-handed.

Facts:

  • Burnley has a good home record when it comes to playing Nottingham Forest. The Clarets in league games have been victorious in six of their last seven games at Turf Moor. They are undefeated in this spell-drawing game. This is the first time these two teams will meet at Turf Moor since 2016.
  • Nottingham Forest last won a league game against Burnley way back in 2012 with a 2-0 win at the City Ground. Since then, they have failed to win any of their last six games against the Clarets, drawing four and losing two.
  • In the Premier League, Burnley have won on the last day in 2009/10 and 2014/15. However, post-2014/15 season, their record on the last day has taken a massive dip. Burnley have not won any of their last six games on the final day of the season.
  • Nottingham Forest themselves do not have a good record when it comes to playing on matchday 38. The Tricky Trees last won a game on the final day of the 2018–19 season after beating Bolton in the championship. After that, they have not won any of their last four games, drawing two and losing two.

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between Burnley and Nottingham Forest surprisingly favours the Clarets by quite a considerable margin. In the last 15 encounters between these two teams in all competitions, Nottingham Forest has won only 2 matchups, and 4 games have ended in a draw, with Burnley winning 9 times.

Burnley last season in the Championship played some really good football that got people off their seats in this game. However, since they were promoted to the Premier League, we have not been able to see Burnley. They failed to establish that identity and often got lost in making things overly complicated on the field. Burnley, now with nothing to play for, needs to get the shackles off and try and play like they did last season. Going back to the championship by winning this game will go a long way in terms of their confidence.

Nottingham Forest in this game just needs to remain calm and composed and get the job done. They have the team and the personnel to get the job done, and that is why we back the Tricky Trees to have a slightly better chance of winning.

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Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Predictions and Betting Tips

The oddsmakers in this game have backed Nottingham Forest to beat Burnley at Turf Moor on Sunday in the Premier League. Nottingham Forest is better placed at the moment, and they come into this with not much to do with respect to their survival hopes. Forest does not need to lose badly over here. The odds between these two sides are quite close, but Forest has the benefit of the doubt, as Burnley is already relegated and has nothing to play for in this game.

Burnley goes into this having lost their last game at home, which confirmed their relegation and also their win percentage dropping, with them now having an 11% win ratio. The Clarets did improve their record in the end, but by that time, it was too late. Burnley this season has never been a free-flowing team. Their inability to score goals is what has cost them this season. Kompany’s men score an average of just 1 goal from an expected goal ratio of 1.10 at Turf Moor. Nottingham Forest have not been horribly poor away from the City Ground this season. The Tricky Trees still have a better record away in comparison to Burnley at home, and that is what led to the former staying up in the Premier League. Nottingham Forest averages 1.11 goals from an expected goal ratio of 1.07. Their win percentage on the road is 17%. Based on the numbers above, we do expect Nottingham Forest to edge past Burnley in this game. Here are our predictions and tips for this game. Our call is for Nottingham Forest to score two or more goals in this game at Turf Moor.

Burnley at home concedes 2.28 goals on average this season, so that is why we back the likes of Wood and Hudson Odoi to get their fair share of chances. We also back Burnley to score in this tie, as they do have a decent scoring record at Turf Moor. Nottingham Forest are poor defensively. They have the tendency to lose concentration, allowing their opponents to take advantage. The Tricky Trees have conceded in 89% of their away games this season. Burnley has failed to score in 39% of their games at Turf Moor, but we still back them to get at least one goal against Nottingham Forest.

In terms of scoring first, Burnley has a far better record when it comes to scoring first. Burnley has a 43% record of opening the scoring in games, finding the net in 16 of their 37 games this season. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, has found the back of the net in 13 of their 37 games. We back Vincent Kompany’s men to start this game off strongly and take the lead. Turf Moor will have a good atmosphere even though Burnley is going down, and that should propel the players to start on the front foot.

Burnley this season has lacked an out-and-out goal scorer. Goals have been scattered amongst their front line this season. They have not had a dependable striker capable of scoring 10 goals or more, and this is one of the big reasons that they are going down. In terms of picking a player to score, it depends on who starts, as Burnley has a raft of players to choose from. The likes of Datro Fofana and Odobert are good options to keep an eye on.

For Nottingham Forest, we back Chris Wood to score in this game. Wood has played for Burnley in the Premier League before and has scored 49 goals for them, as he is their top scorer. Wood, if he scores against Burnley in this game, could become only the fifth player to score against them after the likes of Andre Grey, Danny Ings, Michael Keane, and Patrick Bamford. Wood has not scored in a while, and his attacking numbers continue to be good. We can see him convert one or two of the chances he gets in this game.

Final prediction:Nottingham Forest will beat Burnley.

Burnley Player List

Goalkeepers: James Trafford, Denis Franchi, Lawrence Vigouroux, Arijanet Muric

Defenders: Dara O’Shea, Charlie Taylor, CJ Egan-Riley, Connor Roberts, Hjalmar Ekdal, Vitinho, Ameen Al Dakhil, Jordan Beyer, Luke McNally, Owen Dodgson, Hannes Delcroix

Midfielders: Jack Cork, Johann Gudmundson, Josh Brownhill, Scott Twine, Sander Berge, Aaron Ramsey, Josh Cullen, Samuel Bastien, Mike Tresor, Han-Noah Massengo

Attackers:Jay Rodriguez, Lyle Foster, Benson Manuel, Anass Zaroury, Darko Churlinov, Micheal Obafemi, Jacob Brunn Larsen, Luca Koleosho, Zeki Amdouni, Wilson Odobert

Burnley Playing XI

Player

Role

James Trafford

Goalkeeper

Vitinho

Defender

Ameen Al Dakhil

Defender

Dara O’Shea

Defender

Hjalmar Ekdal

Defender

Josh Cullen

Midfielder

Josh Brownhill

Midfielder

Johann Gudmundson

Midfielder

Wilson Odobert

Attacker

Zeki Amdouni

Attacker

David Datro Fofana

Attacker

Burnley Team Form(Last five games): L, L, D, W, D

Nottingham Forest Players List

Goalkeepers: Matt Turner, Wayne Hennessey, Ethan Horvath, Odysseas Vlachodimos, George Shelvey

Defenders: Joe Worrall, Nico Williams, Harry Toffolo, Moussa Niakhate, Serge Aurier, Scott McKenna, Willy Boly, Felipe, Ola Aina, Nuno Tavares, Gonzalo Montiel, Murillo

Midfielders: Orel Mangala, Morgan Gibbs-White, Andrey Santos, Cheikhou Kouyate, Nicoloas Dominquez, Ryan Yates, Danilo, Brandon Aguilera,

Attackers: Taiwo Awoniyi, Chris Wood, Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Divock Origi

Nottingham Forest Playing XI

Player

Role

Matt Turner

Goalkeeper

Gonzalo Montiel

Defender

Moussa Niakhate

Defender

Murillo

Defender

Ola Aina

Defender

Ibrahima Sangare

Midfielder

Danilo

Midfielder

Morgan Gibbs-White

Midfielder

Callum Hudson-Odoi

Midfielder

Taiwo Awoniyi

Attacker

Anthony Elanga

Attacker

Nottingham Forest Team Form(Last five games): L, W, L, L, D

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Head-To-Head

Matches Played:109

Burnley wins:43

Nottingham Forest wins:37

Matches are drawn:29

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Betting Odds

Burnley to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.85.

Nottingham Forest to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.39.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.75.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Nottingham Forest

The bookies do favour Nottingham Forest slightly over Burnley in this game on Sunday. Burnley have already been relegated after losing their last game in the Premier League. The best they can now do is give their fans a proper send-off before heading back down to the Championship, where their journey to get back to the Premier League will start from scratch.

Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, have nearly secured their future for next season. It will need to be a massive calamity from Nottingham Forest for them to get relegated on the final day of the season, and we do not see that happening. We believe Forest has more than enough to beat Burnley on the final day. Our prediction is a 2-1 Nottingham Forest win on Sunday.

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