Chelsea vs Brighton Match Prediction

CHE

48%

Chance of Winning

BHAFC

52%

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Apr 15, 202305:00 PM

England

Stamford Bridge

Chelsea is set to take on this season’s surprise packages in Brighton and Hove Albion at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. Chelsea currently sits in the 11th spot in the Premier League table with 39 points having played 30 games. Brighton sits in the 7th spot with 46 points having played 28 games. The trajectory of both Chelsea and Brighton couldn’t be more different in the Premier League this season. Chelsea was comfortably beaten by Wolverhampton Wanderers last Saturday at Molineux Stadium. This was Chelsea’s 11th loss of the season. The two-time Champions League-winning team have now lost more games than they have won this season. The appointment of former manager and legendary player Frank Lampard failed to give them the boost they required to win away at Wolves. Chelsea could muster only one shot on target from their 13 attempts at the Wolves' goal. The Blues were beaten by Matheus Nunes’ wonder strike in the 31st minute. Chelsea has had major problems in terms of scoring goals this season. The Blues also went on to lose their Champions League quarter-final 1st leg tie against Real Madrid 2-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday.

Brighton on the other hand was very unfortunate to not get anything from their game against Tottenham Hotspur last Saturday. Heung-Min Son scored a fantastic goal to give Spurs the lead. Lewis Dunk brought Brighton back into the game by heading in a corner to make it 1-1. Kaoru Mitoma, Brighton’s break-out player this season was hard done with two decisions that went against him. The Japanese International was first denied a goal for allegedly handling the ball before he scored which looked quite 50-50. Mitoma was then clearly fouled in the box but the VAR did not hand Brighton the penalty, a decision which the Premier League apologised for the next day for getting wrong. Harry Kane then sealed the deal for Spurs after scoring in the 79th minute to give his side all three points and keep them in the hunt for the top four.

Chelsea vs Brighton's Chance of Winning

Chelsea has a much superior record whenever they face off against Brighton and Hove Albion in recent times. In the last 11 games between these two sides, Chelsea has won 6 games; 4 games have ended in a draw with Brighton winning just once. Chelsea has been formidable against Brighton. However, this season Chelsea is having one of their most horrible slumps in recent history. The Blues this season only have a 33% overall win percentage in the Premier League. The Blues have only picked up 5 points in their last five games coming into this fixture.

Brighton’s loss against Tottenham Hotspur was their 1st loss in their last six Premier League games. The Seagulls have been flying under Roberto De Zerbi and will be determined to secure a European qualification spot for next season. Brighton has a better-winning record away than Chelsea at home hence a higher chance of getting all three points. Brighton has one of the deadliest attacks in the Premier League this season and is reasonably sound at the back which could prove to be a tough ask for Chelsea to solve.

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Chelsea vs Brighton Predictions and Betting Tips

As per the bookmakers, Brighton is slight odds-on favourites to win. According to this season’s statistics, Chelsea tends to score just 1.07 goals a game at home. Chelsea has now failed to score a single goal in their last four games in all competitions. The Blues have scored only 41 goals this season in all competitions, and Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has scored 45 goals in all competitions. Backing Chelsea to not score against Brighton can gain returns as they have blanked in 12 games, that’s 40% of their Premier League games this season. They also have not scored in the last three of their last five games.

Backing Brighton to score can gain returns. The Seagulls have scored at least a goal in each of their last 9 away games. They have also scored 9 goals in their last five games. Backing young Irish striker Ewan Ferguson to score if he starts can gain returns. Ferguson has scored his last three goals whilst playing away. Brighton also tends to score 21% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute, backing them to nick a goal then could gain returns.

Final Prediction:Brighton to beat Chelsea

Chelsea Player List

Goalkeepers: Kepa Arrizabalaga, Eduoard Mendy, Marcus Bettinelli

Defenders: Benoit Badishile, Thiago Silva, Trevoh Chalobah, Ben Chillwell, Reece James, Kalidou Koulibaly, Caesar Azpilicueta, Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana

Midfielders: Enzo Fernandez, N’Golo Kante, Mateo Kovacic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Mason Mount, Denis Zakaria, Conor Gallagher, Carney Chukwuemeka

Attackers:Piere-Emerick Aubameyang, Christian Pulisic, Joao Felix, Mykhailo Mudryk, Raheem Sterling, Armando Broja, Hakim Ziyech, David Fofana, Kai Havertz, Noni Madueke

Chelsea’s Playing XI

Chelsea Team Form

(Last five-game): L, D, L, D, W

Brighton Players List

Goalkeepers: Robert Sanchez, Jason Steele, Tom McGill, Carl Rushworth

Defenders: Tariq Lamptey, Adam Webster, Lewis Dunk, Joel Veltman, Levi Colwill, Matt Clarke, Jan Paul Van Hecke, Pervis Estupinan, Odeluga Offiah

Midfielders: Alexis Mac Allister, Pascal Gross, Adam Lallana, Jakub Moder, Solly March, Moises Caicedo, Julio Enciso, Kaoru Mitoma, Billy Gilmour, Facundo Buonanotte

Attackers: Danny Welbeck, Evan Ferguson, Deniz Undav, Jeremy Sarmiento

Brighton Playing XI

Brighton Team Form

(Last five-game): L, W, D, W, D

Chelsea vs Brighton Head-To-Head

Matches Played:19

Chelsea wins:12

Brighton wins:02

Matches are drawn:5

Chelsea vs Brighton Betting Odds

The odds of Chelsea winning are set at 2.71. Brighton is marginal favourites to win with their odds being set at 2.76. The odds of the match ending in a draw are set at 3.58. The betting odds have been calculated by the bookmakers based on team performances in previous matches, player records and other contributing factors.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win: Brighton and Hove Albion

We predict that Brighton will be slight favourites to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The betting odds are marginally favouring Brighton but there isn’t much to separate the two sides. Brighton comes into this game having lost just once in their last five games picking up 8 points in the process. Chelsea on the other hand has failed to register enough victories this season. The Blues only have a 40% winning rate at home. Brighton has a 43%-win rate when they play away. The Seagulls can out-score their opponents and with Chelsea finding it difficult to score goals, Brighton could win at Stamford Bridge. Based on the stats and previous analytical data we back Brighton and Hove Albion to beat Chelsea.

Shankar Shekh

Sportscafe's author

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