Everton vs Burnley Match Prediction

EVFC

80%

Chance of Winning

BURL

20%

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Apr 06, 202405:00 PM

England

Goodison Park

Everton are set to welcome Burnley to the Goodison Park in a game that is bound to be a very important one for both teams in terms of who gets relegated. This game on Saturday is a 6-pointer which means a loss or a win amounts to double what you get as you are getting the points of your direct rival. Burnley are 19th in the table with 19 points from 31 games. Everton are 17th with 22 points from 30 games. If Burnley were to win this game then they would go level on points with Everton with the Toffees playing a game less. If Everton wins it would make the gap to that 17th spot 6 points causing a big blow to Burnley. Hence the winner in this game will achieve a lot come their relegation prospects.

Everton in the first half should have been blown away by Newcastle United. Isak gave them the lead early and should have scored more to bury the Toffees. Sean Dyche however improved in the second half with his team attacking more. Garner hit the post with a great attempt that came off the post. Their attacking threat finally bore fruit as Young was fouled by Dummett in the penalty box which resulted in Calvert Lewin getting his 1st goal in 18 games from the spot. A crucial point for Everton in a tough stadium.

Burnley in their game however failed to get the win even after dominating Wolves. They took an early lead through Brunn Larsen. Ait-Nouri bought the Wolves back into the game after heading a set piece in. However, in the second half, Burnley could not get past Muric in goal as he denied Brunn Larsen a second goal and also made a good save off Vitinho. Burnley held onto Wolves’ attacks towards the end and held on for a draw.

Everton vs West Ham United Chance of Winning

Everton and Burnley in their recent head-to-head record have had very fierce competition with the Merseyside Blues having the slightest of advantages.

In the last 18 meetings between the two sides, Everton has won 10 times, 1 game has ended in a draw with Burnley winning 7 games.

Everton went to St James’ Park and despite going down early kept themselves in the game. The Toffees showed that their defence can be resilient. We know that about Everton however time and time again their attack needs to fire. They have to make more of their chances. Burnley’s defence will be the perfect opposition for them to be judged against. If the Toffees cannot outscore this team then there will be big question marks over their survival hopes.

Burnley on the other hand is looking like a well-drilled team in terms of how they are coached. They looked more organised and their attack was clicking. For the first time in a long while they do have the momentum to get it done. However, Goodison Park will be up for it and we believe their chances are slightly worse off than the home team.

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Everton vs Burnley Predictions and Betting Tips

The oddsmakers in this game have given Everton the big margins to win this game against Burnley on Saturday in the Premier League. The difference between Everton and Burnley in terms of current form is not big with in fact Burnley having the better performances as of late. Everton are the big favourites when it comes to this game due to their form at home. Burnley this season has also been categorically poor away from home.

Everton incidentally has been poorer at home than whilst playing away this season. The Toffees have just a 21% win record at the Goodison Park this season. Sean Dyche’s men average 1.07 goals a game from an expected goals ratio of 1.69. Their XG is so much higher in comparison to their scoring showing how much they struggle in front of goal. Everton also conceded 1.29 goals at home showing that defensively they do switch off most of the time. Burnley have one of the poorest average away from home in the league this season winning just 13% of their away games. They score 1.07 goals on average from an expected goals ratio of 0.97.

Based on the above stats, we expect both Everton and Burnley to score in this game. We do see this game being a very cautious affair hence we do not expect a lot of goals in this one. Both Everton & Burnley combined to score under 3.5 goals is our tip. Burnley have failed to score in 27% of their away games this season. Everton meanwhile has failed to score in 36% of their games at the Goodison this season. Everton have a decent clean sheet record at home with 29%. We would have backed the Toffees on another day to keep a clean sheet however with Burnley attacking well in their last couple of games, we can see Vincent Kompany’s men scoring here.

In terms of predicting the first half, our call is for it to end in a stalemate. We back Everton to win the game in the 2nd half. Everton have drawn in 57% of their first halves this season. The Clarets meanwhile have drawn in 27% which in terms of numbers is the highest for both teams. In terms of the 2nd half, Everton has a 28% win ratio in comparison to Burnley’s 27% hence we back Sean Dyche’s men to clinch the second 45 minutes.

Both teams also incidentally have quite a close record when it comes to scoring first. Burnley have scored 1st in 13 of their 31 games whilst Everton have scored 1st in 13 of their 30 games. We expect the Toffees to start strong here and predict them to score the opener. When it comes to scoring for Burnley in this game we have to go with Jacob Brunn Larsen in this game. The attacker has scored in each of his last 2 games for Vincent Kompany. Larsen has been their best-attacking spark alongside Fofana. Extensive overloads caused on one side of the pitch often see Larsen being unmarked. Hence we can see him return in this game as well.

For Everton, we can see Dominic Calvert Lewin come back into the starting lineup. The Englishman was dropped to the bench as he had not scored in 18 games in the Premier League. That drought ended in the last game as he came on to score a crucial penalty. This could be the game that could kick start his goal-scoring form provided he starts.

Final Prediction:Everton to beat Burnley

Everton Player List

Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Joao Virginia, Andy Lonergan, Billy Crellin

Defenders: James Tarkowski, Nathan Patterson, Mason Holgate, Michael Keane, Vitalii Mykolenko, Ben Godfrey, Seamus Coleman, Ashley Young, Jarrad Branthwaite

Midfielders: Amadou Onana, Abdoulaye Doucoure, Alex Iwobi, Dele Alli, Idrissa Gueye, James Garner, Andre Gomes, Jean-Philippe Gbamin

Attackers:Dwight McNeil, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Beto, Jack Harrison, Arnaut Danjuma, Youssef Chermiti, Thomas Cannon, Lewis Dobbin

Everton Playing XI

Everton Team Form(Last five games): D, L, L, L, D

Burnley Player List

Goalkeepers: James Trafford, Denis Franchi, Lawrence Vigouroux, Arijanet Muric

Defenders: Dara O’Shea, Charlie Taylor, CJ Egan-Riley, Connor Roberts, Hjalmar Ekdal, Vitinho, Ameen Al Dakhil, Jordan Beyer, Luke McNally, Owen Dodgson, Hannes Delcroix

Midfielders: Jack Cork, Johann Gudmundson, Josh Brownhill, Scott Twine, Sander Berge, Aaron Ramsey, Josh Cullen, Samuel Bastien, Mike Tresor, Han-Noah Massengo

Attackers:Jay Rodriguez, Lyle Foster, Benson Manuel, Anass Zaroury, Darko Churlinov, Micheal Obafemi, Jacob Brunn Larsen, Luca Koleosho, Zeki Amdouni, Wilson Odobert

Burnley Playing XI

Burnley Team Form(Last five games): D, D, W, D, L

Everton vs Burnley Head-To-Head

Matches Played:122

Everton wins:54

Burnley wins:38

Matches are drawn:30

Everton vs Burnley Betting Odds

Everton to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.67.

Burnley to win the match (PARIMATCH): 5.00.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.20.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Everton

This is a crucial game when it comes to the relegation battle. Many might claim it is a 6 pointer. The winner of this game is bound to get a big boost in their fight for survival whilst the other would almost crumble. Everton this season have not been winning games. Their ability to turn a draw into a win is not there. They are most of the time chasing games which is eventually costing them wins. Burnley on the other hand looked down and out at one time but their form has considerably improved. They are undefeated in each of their last 4 games overall which is their best run of form since they started this season. However, in this game, we feel that the run will come to an end. Everton with Sean Dyche knows how to get results. Their football is pragmatic and we believe can do the trick at this stage of the season. Our prediction is for Everton to win this game 2-1.

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