LIV (Liverpool) vs LUT (Luton Town) Match Prediction

LIV

99%

Chance of Winning

LUT

1%

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England

Anfield

Liverpool is set to face off against Luton Town at Anfield in the Premier League on Thursday under the lights. Liverpool goes into this game as table toppers however irrespective of City’s result against Brentford a day earlier. Liverpool has a 1-point lead over City at the top due to the latter dropping points against Chelsea. Liverpool would want to solidify their lead once again before they head to the Carabao Cup final against Chelsea.

Luton Town meanwhile have once again dropped into the relegation zone after their last game. Everton’s draw against Crystal Palace saw the Toffees jump out of the relegation spots to put the Hatters back into the scrap. The Hatters still have a game in hand and a win in this game would take them back out of the relegation spots. A loss keeps them locked to the 18th place in the league table.

Liverpool in their last game travelled to the GTECH Community Stadium to face Brentford. The visitors started the game very scrappily as both teams failed to get a proper hold of the game. Liverpool finally found the breakthrough as Nunez chipped the ball over the keeper to give Liverpool the lead. In the 2nd half even though injuries saw Nunez and Jota leave, Salah came on and created havoc for the Brentford defence.

Mac Allister doubled Liverpool’s lead in the 55th minute. Salah’s incisive run coupled with Brentford’s dismal defence saw Liverpool get their 3rd. Ivan Toney did pull one back but Cody Gakpo rounded up Liverpool’s victory by scoring the 4th goal of the day to hand his team a 4-1 victory in the capital.

Luton Town welcomed Manchester United to Kenilworth Road. A shoddy giveaway saw Manchester United take the lead inside 36 seconds through Rasmus Hojlund. The Danish striker doubled United's lead in the 7th minute.

Luton slowly began to get into the game and got their goal through Carlton Morris in the 14th minute to make things more interesting. Luton Town pressed United very well however they could not break down Manchester United's defence with Barkley coming close in the final minute of the game by hitting the post from a corner. The loss saw Luton Town once again slip into the relegation spots.

Facts:

  • Liverpool are unbeaten against Luton Town at Anfield in league competitions. These two sides only met for the first time in 1992 and since then the Merseyside Reds have won 8 and drawn 6 of their last 14 games.
  • Luton Town have not won any of the 14 games they have played at Anfield in their league history. Against no other side in the League have Luton Town failed to not win as much as they have done against Liverpool.
  • Promoted teams have occasionally tasted victory in their first appearance at Anfield. Only 4 teams however in the Premier League have managed to win their first encounter at Anfield after being promoted. Newcastle United, Barnsley, Watford and Blackpool are the sides. Luton Town could join this list if they win at Anfield on Thursday.
  • Liverpool have just lost 1 of their last 54 games at Anfield with Leeds United being the last team in October 2022 to win there. Luton Town meanwhile are undefeated in each of their last 3 away games winning 1 and drawing 2.

Liverpool vs Luton Town Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between Liverpool and Luton Town sees the former come out on top on most occasions. In the last 10 games between these two in all competitions, Liverpool has won 4 times, 5 games have ended in a draw with Luton Town won just 1 game.

Liverpool will be forced to rely on their fringe players in this game due to the injury crisis they are currently facing. The likes of Gakpo and Diaz will have to step up in the absence of Jota, Nunez and Salah. Failing to convert early chances could get Luton into the game and Liverpool will not want that. Their performance against Brentford was really good however at the moment Luton Town is a slightly better organised team. They have a good attacking presence as well with Carlton Morris upfront. The Hatters nearly got the win in the reverse fixture taking a late goal from Luis Diaz to rescue a point for Liverpool. We can see this being a nail-biter for Liverpool again. Klopp’s men go into this game with a better chance of winning but Luton Town do not go into this game as massive underdogs. They do have a chance of getting something here.

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Liverpool vs Luton Town Predictions and Betting Tips

Liverpool in this tie against Luton Town goes in as major odds-on favourites to win at Anfield. Liverpool. Anfield has always been a fortress for Liverpool and it is a stadium that most opponents find it very difficult to get points from. Liverpool come into this game on the back of a convincing away win against Brentford whereas Luton Town suffered defeat at the hands of Manchester United in their last game at home.

Luton Town over the last couple of games have impressed many since they were promoted from the Championship. Liverpool is expected to win big but we do not believe that will be the case so let us assess the situation and what could happen based on the stats.

Liverpool have had a standout record at Anfield this year. They have an 83% win ratio at home this season scoring 2.75 goals on average from an expected goals ratio of 2.55 goals at home. Liverpool have scored in 11 of their 12 games this season. Luton Town on the other hand has won just 18% of their games away from Kenilworth Road this season.

Luton Town averages 1.36 goals a game this season on their travels. Liverpool to score less than 3 goals is our call as many of their attackers are injured. Luton Town has conceded 2.27 goals on average on their travels this season. They have conceded 9 goals in their last 3 games.

We however do expect Luton Town to also score in this game. The Hatters have failed to score in just 27% of their away games this season which is quite a high number. However, Liverpool is nursing a lot of injuries to their team and we believe that they could be caught out by an attacking Luton Town team.

In terms of scoring first in this game, we back Liverpool to open the scoring because they tend to start games quite quickly. Liverpool have opened the deadlock in 14 of their 25 games this season. Luton Town on the other hand have fallen behind in games in 17 of their 24 games. The numbers back Liverpool and with them playing at Anfield we do expect them to find the back of the net first.

In terms of scoring for Liverpool, the options are unknown. Many of their attackers are a doubt considering their injury status. One attacker to bank on who is not injured would be Luis Diaz. The Colombian winger will surely be expected to start in this game. Luis Diaz was also on target in the last game he played at Anfield against Burnley. Cody Gakpo is also a good target to keep an eye on. We suggest keeping an eye on the lineup before hedging bets on goal scorers because if Darwin Nunez or Salah are fit enough to start then they are the best options.

For Luton Town, we have to back Carlton Morris to once again go in as a favourite to score for them. Morris did find the back of the net against Manchester United in his last game for the Hatters. The striker is also on penalties which adds to the appeal. With Adebayo being injured, Morris will be expected to lead the line by himself which makes him a focal point.

Final Prediction:Liverpool to beat Luton Town.

Liverpool Player List

Goalkeepers: Allison Becker, Adrian, Caoimhin Kelleher, Marcelo Pitaluga

Defenders: Virgil Van Djik, Ibrahima Konate, Joel Matip, Trent Alexander Arnold, Kostas Tsimikas, Andy Robertson, Joe Gomez, Connor Bradley

Midfielders: Thiago, Alexis Mac Allister, Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliot, Stefan Bajcetic, Dominik Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo

Attackers: Mo Salah, Cody Gakpo, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Luiz Diaz

Liverpool Playing XI

Player

Role

Caoimhin Kelleher

Goalkeeper

Connor Bradley

Defender

Ibrahima Konate

Defender

Virgil Van Dijk

Defender

Andy Robertson

Defender

Alexis Mac Allister

Midfielder

Wataru Endo

Midfielder

Ryan Gravenberch

Midfielder

Harvey Elliot

Attacker

Luis Diaz

Attacker

Cody Gakpo

Attacker

Liverpool Team Form(Last five games): W, W, L, W, W

Luton Town Player List

Goalkeepers: James Shea, Tim Krul, Thomas Kaminski

Defenders: Dan Potts, Tom Lockyer, Mads Andersen, Issa Kabore, Teden Mengi, Reece Burke, Amari’i Bell, Gabriel Osho, Alfie Doughty

Midfielders: Luke Berry, Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu, Marvelous Nakamba, Tahith Chong, Jordan Clark, Ryan Giles, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Ross Barkley

Attackers:Carlton Morris, Chiedozie Ogbene, Cauley Woodrow, Elijah Adebayo, Jacob Brown, Andros Townsend

Luton Town Playing XI

Player

Role

Thomas Kaminski

Goalkeeper

Teden Mengi

Defender

Gabriel Osho

Defender

Amari’i Bell

Defender

Chiedozie Ogbene

Wingback

Alfie Doughty

Wingback

Albert Sambi Lokonga

Midfielder

Ross Barkley

Midfielder

Carlton Morris

Attacker

Andros Townsend

Attacker

Cauley Woodrow

Attacker

Luton Town Team Form(Last five games): L, L, D, W, D

Liverpool vs Luton Town Head-To-Head

Matches Played:39

Liverpool wins:18

Luton Town wins:7

Matches are drawn:14

Liverpool vs Luton Town Betting Odds

Liverpool to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.20.

Luton Town to win the match (PARIMATCH): 15.50.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 7.70.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Liverpool

Liverpool are major and comfortable odds on favourites to win this game against Luton Town at Anfield according to the bet makers. However, we do expect this game to be a close call. We still back Liverpool to end up as winners but Luton Town could make them strive for it. The major reason why we believe that Liverpool could struggle in this game is because of the injuries they have. Salah, Nunez, Alexander-Arnold, Jota, Jones, Dszoboszlai are all expected to miss this game through injury.

This does force the Reds to make many changes to their team which could give Luton Town a chance going into this game. Salah in the last game came on and changed the game for Liverpool. However he now also remains a doubt which is a massive blow to their attacking threat. Luton Town can be quite a persistent side and if Liverpool is not on their A-game attacking then they could be punished heading into this game.

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