Netherlands vs France Match Prediction
European Championship
Red Bull Arena
In their first game, the Netherlands came face-to-face with Poland, and things got off on the wrong foot for them as they conceded within the first 16 minutes. A lapse in concentration from the Dutch midfield saw Zielinski’s cross headed in by Buksa. The Netherlands immediately struck back with Gakpo, as his shot took a massive deflection, leaving the keeper stranded. After that, the Poles were defensively solid as the Netherlands failed to break them down. Verbruggen also had to make some good saves to deny Poland the lead. Ultimately, it was the substitute Wout Weghorst who made the difference, as he scored the winner in the 83rd minute to give the Oranje all three points.
France, on the other hand, came face-to-face with a tougher opponent in Austria. Rangnick’s men were rock solid at the back as France failed to break them down. The breakthrough finally came with Mbappe’s driving run from the right channel. His cross or shot took a deflection off Wober and went into the net, giving France the lead. Mbappe had a couple of easy chances to extend France’s lead, but he could not keep his shots on target. Kolo Muani, towards the end, also had a good chance to double France’s lead, but it wasn’t to be. France finally held on and got their first three points on the board.
Facts:
- France and the Netherlands have had their fair share of matches in the Euros. Both nations have played a total of three games already, with the game on Saturday set to be their fourth meeting. The Netherlands have a 2-1 record for winning group stage games in the 2000 and 2008 editions. France won the quarterfinals on penalties in the 1996 Euros.
- Games between France and the Netherlands always tend to produce results, as the rate of draws between these two nations is quite low. In the last 30 matches between France and the Netherlands, only 4 matches have ended in a stalemate.
- Leaving penalty shootouts to the side, the Netherlands actually have a pretty good record recently in major tournaments when it comes to winning games in open play. The Dutch have won 12 of their last 17 games, drawing four and losing just once. Before this spell, they did lose four games in a row, with one in the 2010 World Cup and three in the 2012 Euro.
- France have a decent record when it comes to winning their first two games of the group stage. Les Blues have won the first two games of the Euros three times already. They have a chance of making it four on Saturday. In the three editions of the Euros, whenever France has won its opening two games, they have gone on to make the finals in 1984, 2000, and 2016.
- France manager Didier Deschamps took charge of his 12th Euro game against Austria. That was Deschamps’ seventh Euro win as manager. The Les Blues manager has lost just one game as France boss. Only former manager Joachim Low, with 12 wins, has more Euro victories than Deschamps.
Netherlands vs France: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the head-to-head record, France has been utterly dominant against the Dutch. In the last seven games played between these two nations, France has won six; no games have ended in a draw, with the Netherlands winning just once. Austria last beat Poland in a friendly in 1994. These two teams also faced off in the same group in 2023 qualifying. France ended up beating them thanks to a brace from Kylian Mbappe. Quilindschy Hartman scored the consolation for the Dutch on the night.
France missing Kylian Mbappe will be a big blow in this game. Mbappe’s run and cross made the difference in the first game, and France broke Austria’s resilience. Deschamps will now need to cope, at least for the next two games, until Mbappe returns for the knockout rounds. France has a raft of attackers in Kolo Muani, Kingsley Coman, and Barcola. The likes of Griezmann and Dembele will need to take added responsibility in this game.
The Netherlands have not done well against France in recent games, so seeing Mbappe missing is a big boost for them considering how well he always played. The Dutch will need to find a way to create more, as Poland has at times exposed them a lot, especially during the break. The French have clinical attackers on their side, and if the Netherlands presents opportunities, then they will be punished. Hence, with all things considered and also considering the past, we expect France to have a better chance of winning.
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Netherlands vs France: Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, France goes into this game as slight odds-on favourites to beat the Netherlands on Saturday. Both nations have started off their Euro campaigns on a very good note, with wins in their first games. France generally would have been much more clear favourites; however, the loss of Mbappe to the nose injury has brought the Netherlands into the mix.
The Netherlands were decent in their first game against Poland and left it quite late to get the win thanks to a late goal from Weghorst. The Netherlands did indeed create a lot of half chances against Poland in their first game. However, their expected goal ratio in that game was not the highest. They had a 1.26 xG, in which they scored two goals on the night. The Netherlands in general have been good in terms of scoring against the smaller teams. The overall goal ratio in 2024 will be 2.6, but the Oranje do struggle against the big teams.
France, against Austria, had so many chances to extend their lead. Two of the best chances fell to Mbappe, but he put them wide. France, as per their standards, also did not create that much. They registered an xG of 1.77, for which they had their own goal to show. France is generally quite an attacking side, averaging 3 goals per game in 2024.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We believe that this game will have goals. Both will want to top the group, which will help them get an easier opponent in the knockouts. The abundance of quality on the pitch will make this an interesting watch.
In terms of goals, we expect both teams to score a combined tally of under 3.5 goals. We do, however, expect France to keep a clean sheet in this game. France have kept two clean sheets against the Netherlands in their last five games. France’s defence looks very strong, and the Netherlands do seem to have trouble with their attack, as they did not trouble Poland that much.
In terms of goal scoring, we do expect that France will score two or more goals in this game. France has scored two or more goals against the Netherlands in four of their last five games. France to also win this game by two or more goals is our call here.
On a normal day, we would have backed Kylian Mbappe to be the favourite to score against the Netherlands, as he loves playing against them. Mbappe has scored six goals in his last five games against the Oranje. The Frenchman will, however, miss this game due to injury. In his absence, we will back Antoine Griezmann to be the favourite to score in this game. With Mbappe being injured, Griezmann will also be on penalties, which adds to his appeal.
For the Netherlands, we back Wout Weghorst to score in this game. His chances of scoring look good, as he has a very good substitute record. Weghorst has scored four goals in major competitions, including the Euros and the World Cup. Three of those four goals came when he was brought on as a substitute. It remains to be seen if Koeman starts with Weghorst or brings him on. Either way, his scoring record in games has been good enough to back him in this game.
Final prediction:France to beat the Netherlands.
Netherlands Player List
Goalkeepers:Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Bart Verbruggen
Defenders:Nathan Aké, Daley Blind, Virgil van Dijk, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Stefan de Vrij, Ian Maatsen
Midfielders:Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Jerdy Schouten, Xavi Simons, Joey Veerman, Georginio Wijnaldum
Forwards:Steven Bergwijn, Brian Brobbey, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Wout Weghorst, Joshua Zirkzee
Netherlands Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Bart Verbruggen |
Goalkeeper |
|
Denzel Dumfries |
Defender |
|
Virgil Van Dijk |
Defender |
|
Nathan Ake |
Defender |
|
Matthijs de Ligt |
Defender |
|
Tijjani Reijnders |
Midfielder |
|
Joey Veerman |
Midfielder |
|
Jerdy Schouten |
Midfielder |
|
Xavi Simons |
Attacker |
|
Memphis Depay |
Attacker |
|
Cody Gakpo |
Attacker |
Netherlands Team Form(Last five games): W, W, W, L, W
France Player List
Goalkeepers:Alphonse Areola, Mike Maignan, Brice Samba
Defenders:Jonathan Clauss, Ibrahima Konate, William Saliba, Jules Kounde, Theo Hernandez, Ferland Mendy, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano
Midfielders: N'Golo Kante, Eduardo Camavinga, Adrien Rabiot, Antoine Griezmann, Aurelien Tchouameni, Warren Zaire-Emery, Youssouf Fofana
Forwards: Kylian Mbappe, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele, Kingsley Coman, Marcus Thuram, Randal Kolo Muani, Olivier Giroud
France Playing XI
|
Player |
ole |
|
Mike Maignan |
Goalkeeper |
|
Jules Kounde |
Defender |
|
Dayot Upamecano |
Defender |
|
Ibrahima Konate |
Defender |
|
Theo Hernandez |
Defender |
|
N’Golo Kante |
Midfielder |
|
Eduardo Camavinga |
Midfielder |
|
Ousmane Dembele |
Midfielder |
|
Antoine Griezmann |
Attacker |
|
Randal Kolo Muani |
Attacker |
|
Marcus Thuram |
Attacker |
France Team Form(Last five games): W, D, W, W, L
Netherlands vs France Head-To-Head
Matches Played:30
Netherlands wins:11
France wins:16
Matches are drawn:3
Netherlands vs France Betting Odds
Netherlands to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.46.
France to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.24.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.39.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
France
Parimatch