ICC World Cup 2023 | Qualification scenarios for India, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia
After nearly four weeks of gruelling cricket, the table has started to take definite shape with the favourites clearly chalked out. However, the host of upsets has made it evident that nothing is granted, making it necessary to delve into qualification scenarios for the current top four.
How India can qualify
The hosts are in pole position to clinch a top-four spot in the round-robin stage, leading the charts with 12 points courtesy of six wins in as many games. Practically, the Men in Blue already have one foot in the semi-finals but to mathematically seal the deal, just one more victory in any of their remaining games against Sri Lanka, South Africa, and Netherlands would be enough. In fact, India can even afford to lose all three games and still qualify comfortably as long as Afghanistan suffer a defeat in any of their three games against the Dutch, Proteas, and Kangaroos
How South Africa can qualify
Barring the surprise setback against the Netherlands, South Africa have been flawless in the World Cup so far as reflected in their points tally of 10 with five wins in six games as well as a mighty NRR of 2.032 -- the highest in the tournament by a distance. The simplest path to qualification for the Proteas would be a victory against the currently fifth-placed Afghanistan since they are the only side outside the top four capable of surpassing the Proteas' current points haul. Even if they fail to get over the line against the Afghans, wins in the other two games against New Zealand and hosts India would not only be enough for a semis spot but likely guarantee them a second-placed finish. Their net run rate even allows them the liberty of finishing the campaign with just a solitary victory as long as they don't lose by a big margin, given Afghanistan's net run rate reads a sorry -0.718 at the time of writing.
Now, let's consider the two extremes. A 3/3 finish would give the Proteas the honor of being the table toppers and get the advantage of facing the fourth-placed team in the semi-final. On the other hand, three losses on the bounce would place them on the threat of elimination but only barely. If Afghanistan loses any of their other two encounters against the Aussies or Holland, all the Proteas need to ensure is they maintain a relatively healthy net run rate to trump the chasing pack of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Netherlands.
How New Zealand can qualify
The Black Caps put the cricketing fraternity on notice with a perfect start to their run for a third consecutive final, winning four in a row only to falter with two defeats on the bounce. Nevertheless, they are well positioned at third on the table with eight points to their name and a handsome net run rate of 1.232, meaning wins in their remaining fixtures against Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Proteas would guarantee them a semi-final spot. The Black Caps also have an added advantage heading into the last leg of the round-robin phase in the form of a head-to-head clash between their two closest competitors Australia and Afghanistan with one of them ensured to drop points. As a result, even two wins would get the job done for New Zealand.
The formidable net run rate provides a decent safety cushion for the Black Caps in case they eke out just a solitary victory to close out the league stage. Ideally, they'd like Australia to lose their three games or win just one by a small enough margin to stay behind the Black Caps. Alternatively, an Afghan loss in any of the three games should also be enough for New Zealand to qualify given the poor net run rates of the Holland-Lions-Pakistan triumvirate.
However, if New Zealand lose all their games, the Black Caps would absolutely need Afghanistan to lose two or Australia to lose all their games to compensate, as well as require the Dutch-Lions-Pakistan triumvirate to lose at least one game each to be stuck with a maximum tally of eight points. Notably, in such a scenario, big losses for New Zealand against either Sri Lanka or Pakistan could spell doom given it would have a two-way effect on the NRR gap between the sides.
How Australia can qualify
Australia have had a mirror opposite campaign to their trans-Tasman rivals, kicking off the World Cup with two defeats before stitching together a four-match winning streak. Unsurprisingly thus, they find themselves in a similar boat as the Black Caps but with a slightly inferior net run rate of 0.970. Derivatively, three wins would ensure qualification for the Kangaroos as will two victories provided one of them is against Afghanistan. Even if their only loss comes at the hand of the Afghans, the Asian contingent would not only also have to win against the Proteas and Dutch but their net run rate of -0.718 means the margins would have to be big enough for the Oz to drop below them in the table.
Now, onto the interesting part. If Australia win just one game, they would like to be it against Afghanistan since it would practically seal them a semis spot owing to the NRR buffer from the contenders currently outside the top four. However, if Afghanistan manage another upset against the five-time champions as well as defeat Holland and the Proteas, the Kangaroos will be knocked out unless New Zealand lose all their three remaining games. In other words, two Afghan defeats or three Black Caps defeats would pave the path for Australia.
The real danger arrives if Australia end up on the wrong side of the line in all their remaining games since a host of other results would then need to go their way. Firstly, a 100% record for any of Holland, Sri Lanka or Pakistan would knock out Australia, meaning all three have to lose at least one game each. Secondly, Afghanistan would need to lose against the Dutch and the Proteas since a win against either would take them to 10 points, two more than Australia's tally of 8. Australia would still have a chance of going through if Afghanistan win one of those two games, if the Black Caps lose all their three games by margins big enough to forego their current NRR advantage over their rivals Down Under.