Busting ‘spin-to-win in India’ myth: Pace attacks the silent trump cards in bid for World Cup

The unholy amount of cricket cramped into the calendar in the past years has stripped bilateral cricket of all status and relevance, especially the white-ball games. At least the red-ball internationals carry some context, and despite the advent of the World Test Championship, the likes of Ashes, Border Gavaskar Trophy, and Pataudi Trophy remain the pinnacle. It is also in these games that the pitch conditions are most carefully prepared and thus appear prevalent to the audience, in no small measure due to the sheer length of these fixtures. 

These numbers are not standalone figures though and simply reflect a global shift in the approach to white-ball cricket, particularly the 50-over format. The revolution brought about by England after the 2015 World Cup which featured gung-ho batting as a focal aspect, combined with the growth of T20s propelling the domination of batters in the sport, has led to an exponential increase in flat pitches around the world. Naturally, India has towed the line as well and the proof is in the pudding. The 2023 season of the Indian Premier League was the highest-scoring edition to date by a huge distance and witnessed 200-plus totals an astonishing 37 times – more than double the previous record of 18 set just the previous year.

The previous two editions of the World Cup tell the same story. In England and Wales in 2019, only one spinner (Yuzvendra Chahal) featured in the top 20 wicket takers for the tournament while the 2015 edition held in Australia and New Zealand had Daniel Vettori as the best-ranked spinner at a distant eighth. While these countries have traditionally featured pacer-friendly surfaces, the numbers in these tournaments appear unconventionally skewed. For instance, when England previously hosted an ODI World Cup in 1999, two spinners made it to the top five wicket-takers of the tournament. Similarly, in the 1992 World Cup Down Under, leg-spinner Mushtaq Ahmed finished as the second-highest wicket-taker and two other spinners featured in the top 20.

To make matters worse for the spinners, the pitches at the World Cup would be prepared as per instructions from the global governing body International Cricket Council, who have shown a clear inclination for flat tracks. As per reports, the pitches at Arun Jaitley Stadium in Delhi have substituted the traditional clayey red soil, which offers more grip and turn, for black soil which is much more suited for big scores. The timing of the tournament does not bode well for spinners either, given it is slated to be held immediately after the monsoon season. Fresh pitches are thus inevitable, replete with moisture and a healthy layer of grass on top.

Even the last time the World Cup was held in the subcontinent, two of the top three wicket-takers were pacers, namely Zaheer Khan and Tim Southee. Additionally, the pacers averaged 32.29 in the games played across India compared to the spinners’ average of 34.04. While that gap may appear slim, this was when the pacers only had access to one new ball per inning while spinners made hay in the middle overs with a soft and scuffed-up Kookaburra.

Thus, it is evident that pacers will not only play a big role in the upcoming World Cup but will probably end up determining which way the pendulum swings. And that bodes well for the Men in Blue, who arguably boast the most formidable pace attack of all the 10 teams participating at the marquee event. India is perhaps the only side to have two bowlers equally proficient in all three phases of the game, Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj. While the former has scalped eight wickets in five encounters since returning from a long injury layoff and is a proven international commodity, Siraj’s domination of late has been nothing short of sensational.

Add to that the fact that Shardul Thakur’s 40 wickets in the middle overs are the most by a pacer across the last four years while Hardik Pandya’s economy of 5.82 in the death overs is unmatched, and India simply look unbeatable in the pace department. Even their backup speedster Mohammed Shami has the fourth-most wickets in the World Cup amongst active players, with 31 scalps at a ridiculous average of 15.7.

Crucially, India is also the only contender that boasts of a full-strength pace attack with adequate preparation heading into the tournament as well as the only team with a pack congruously approaching its prime. Siraj and Bumrah are both just 29 years old while Shami turned 33 less than a month ago. New Zealand’s pace attack, meanwhile, boasts of a 34-year-old Trent Boult, a similarly aged Tim Southee who is unavailable for the start of the tournament due to injury, and a horrendously out-of-form Lockie Ferguson averaging 60 in ODIs in 2023. Australia will have to contend with a Mitchell Starc who’s lacking game time, and England will be without Jofra Archer who was instrumental in their 2019 triumph. South Africa will be missing two premium speedsters Anrich Nortje and Sisanda Magala due to injury as will Pakistan in the form of Naseem Shah.