Croatia vs Italy Match Prediction
European Championship
Leipzig Stadium
Croatia, in their last game, were just minutes away from getting their first win of the tournament, but that wasn’t to be. They turned around the tie after Albania once again took a shock lead. Croatia scored in the space of 2 minutes and turned the tie around with a goal from Kramaric and an own goal from Klaus Gjasula. Albania, however, equalised through Gjasula to break Croatian hearts. Italy were easily the second-best team on the day, as they failed to trouble Spain. An own goal from Calafiori was the difference between these two teams, as Spain won by just a single goal.
Facts:
- Italy and Croatia have not had many meetings when it comes to the major tournaments, including the Euros and the World Cups. This will be Italy and Croatia’s third meeting in a major tournament. Before this, they faced Croatia in the 2002 World Cup, where they won 2-1, and in the 2012 Euros, where the tie ended 1-1. All three games between these two have happened in the group stages.
- Since the formation of Croatia in 1990, their form against Italy has actually been very good. Croatia have lost none of the eight games that they have played against the Azzurri. They have won three and drawn five games, with each of the last three fixtures between the two ending in a 1-1 draw.
- Croatia in the group stages has already faced off against the defending champions on four occasions. Playing Italy in this edition will be the fifth time that Croatia will face the team that won the Euros in the subsequent edition. In 1996, they won against Denmark; the game in the 2004 edition ended in a 1-1 draw against France; and the 2016 game against Spain also resulted in a victory. They have not lost a single game against the defending champions.
- The group stage in the Euros was introduced in the 1980 season, and since then, Italy has had a really good record when it comes to playing their final group game. The Azzurri have played a total of nine Euros since 1980, and only on one occasion have they lost in the final group stage game of the Euros. They have won six games and drawn two, with the only defeat coming in the 2016 edition of the tournament, where they were beaten by the Republic of Ireland.
Croatia vs Italy: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the head-to-head record, Croatia surprisingly has a slightly better record over Italy in the recent games they have faced off in. In the total of 3 fixtures played between these two teams in all competitions, Croatia has won 1 time, and 2 games have ended in a draw with Italy. The last time these two sides met was in a competitive game in the qualifying groups for Euro 2016. The game ended 1-1 on the night, with Mario Mandzukic opening the scoring for Croatia, which was then cancelled out in the first half itself by Antonio Candreva for Italy.
Croatia do not have more opportunities, as it is a must-win game for them. Even a draw is not enough, so they have to take the risk of not only being attacked but also being compact at the back so that they do not get attacked. A point for Italy will guarantee the second spot, and we believe that they will be compact in this game, making it difficult to score. Croatia defending their own lead seems to be a problem here, but when it comes to Italy, we trust them to defend if their lives are at stake. Hence, when it comes to these two nations in this game, we believe that Italy goes into it with a better chance of winning.
Best Bookmakers for Sports Betting in India
Rank | Rating | Bonus | Link |
---|---|---|---|
#1 |
Parimatch 5 ★★★★★ |
Welcome bonus INR 30,000 Promocode SCAFE30 |
Join ParimatchRead review |
#2 |
Melbet 4.9 ★★★★★ |
Welcome bonus INR 20,000 Promocode SCAFE30 |
Join MelbetRead review |
#3 |
1Win 4.8 ★★★★★ |
Welcome bonus INR 145,000 Promocode SCAFE145 |
Join 1winRead review |
Italy vs Croatia: predictions and betting tips
According to the bookmakers, Italy goes into this game as slight odds-on favourites to beat Croatia on Tuesday. Both these teams are in dire need of a result to seal their spot in the round of 16. Croatia however are in a major spot of bother as they need to win this game. Italy over the course of the group stage were able to easily beat Albania. Croatia on the other hand struggled against the Albanians and that is why Italy are the minor odds on favourites.
Italy's last game against Spain was really poor, as they failed to pin them back. Italy had no goals to show against Spain, for which they had an xG of 0.25. Italy, going into this tournament, had a really decent goal-scoring record, averaging 1.7 goals. 2 goals in 2 games in the Euros is mediocre, and Italy will need to improve that if they want to go far in the tournament.
Croatia are having all sorts of problems in this group. Luka Modric and co have failed to cement themselves as their performances in attack have been poor and wasteful. Croatia had an xG of 2.44 which they scored 2 goals on the evening. Against a team like Albania, those numbers need to be high. Croatia have failed to create enough and hence they are struggling. Putting teams to bed has not been their thing this time around.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We believe that this game will be decided by a fine margin, with not many goals to show. This is an elimination game, especially for Croatia, so we do expect them to come out fighting. We believe that Italy’s defence is capable of handling Croatia.
We back both Italy and Croatia to score in this game. Both nations continue to have issues in their defence, especially Croatia. They have already conceded five goals in two games in this competition. Italy, on the other hand, has just conceded two, and hence we expect the Azzurri to come out on top.
We expect Italy to win this game by a goal margin. We do not see them outright dominating Croatia in this game. We back Italy in this game to score two goals despite Croatia’s defensive woes. We, however, believe that Croatia will play more with the ball with Italy sitting back. Hence, for Croatia to have more than 55% possession, it is our call.
Croatia have the urge to go for goals as they have to win this game. Even before this, they have had a lot of attempts on goal. They have had 38 shots in total with 15 being on target in the 2 games that they have played. With Italy sitting low we expect Croatia to keep trying their shots from a distance. Against Albania, they had 22 shots with 10 being on target. Hence in this game, our prediction is for Croatia to have more than 13 shots on Italy’s goal with 6 or more being on target.
In terms of goal scorers for Italy, we back Gianluca Scamacca to score for Italy here. Scamacca has yet to open his account for Italy in euros, but we believe that this game is suited to his style, and hence he is our pick for this game. For Croatia, we will back Andrej Kramaric to go in as the favourite to score in this game. Kramaric is fresh off scoring for Croatia against Albania.
Final prediction:Italy to beat Croatia.
Croatia Player List
Goalkeepers:Dominik Livakovic, Ivica Ivusic, Nediljko Labrovic
Defenders:Domagoj Vida, Josip Juranovic, Josko Gvardiol, Borna Sosa, Josip Stanisic, Josip Sutalo, Martin Erlic, Marin Pongracic
Midfielders:Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Marcelo Brozovic, Mario Pasalic, Nikola Vlasic, Lovro Majer, Luka Ivanusec, Luka Sucic, Martin Baturina
Attackers:Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, Bruno Petkovic, Marko Pjaca, Ante Budimir, Marco Pasalic
Croatia Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Dominik Livakovic |
Goalkeeper |
Josip Stanisic |
Defender |
Josip Sutalo |
Defender |
Marin Pongracic |
Defender |
Josko Gvardiol |
Defender |
Luka Modric |
Midfielder |
Matteo Kovacic |
Midfielder |
Marcelo Brozovic |
Midfielder |
Lovro Majer |
Midfielder |
Andrej Kramaric |
Attacker |
Ante Budimir |
Attacker |
Croatia Team Form (Last five games):D, L, W, W, D
Italy Player List
Goalkeepers:Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alex Meret, Ivan Provedel, Guglielmo Vicario
Defenders:Alessandro Bastoni, Raoul Bellanova, Alessandro Buongiorno, Riccardo Calafiori, Andrea Cambiaso, Matteo Darmian, Giovanni di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Gianluca Mancini, Federico Gatti
Midfielders:Nicolo Barella, Bryan Cristante, Nicolo Fagioli, Michael Folorunsho, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini
Forwards:Federico Chiesa, Stephan El Shaarawy, Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui, Gianluca Scamacca, Mattia Zaccagni
Italy Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Gianluigi Donnarumma |
Goalkeeper |
Matteo Darmian |
Defender |
Alessandro Bastoni |
Defender |
Alessandro Buongiorno |
Defender |
Raoul Bellanova |
Defender |
Federico Dimarco |
Defender |
Jorginho |
Midfielder |
Nicolo Barella |
Midfielder |
Davide Frattesi |
Attacker |
Federico Chiesa |
Attacker |
Gianluca Scamacca |
Attacker |
Italy Team Form (Last five games):L, W, W, D, W
Croatia vs Italy Head-To-Head
Matches Played:9
Croatia wins:3
Italy wins:1
Matches are drawn:5
Croatia vs Italy Betting Odds
Croatia to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.30.
Italy to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.39.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.25.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Italy
Italy, on the other hand, did very well against Albania; however, their performance against Spain saw them create next to nothing. Based on the eye test and how these two have performed in this tournament, we have to back the bookies and pick Italy in this game. The Azzurri look to have a better defence in order to stop a rather blunt Croatian attack. Plus, this is an Italian attack that beat Albania pretty easily, something Croatia could not do. Hence, we do predict that Italy will just about edge Croatia. We can also see this game as a draw, as the past three games have all ended in stalemates.
Parimatch