France vs Poland Match Prediction
European Championship
Singal Iduna Park
The equation for Poland is next to impossible with their heavy defeat to Austria in their last game. Poland have lost both of their games and go into this with a -3 goal difference. For Poland to finish third, they will have to beat France by three goals and hope that the Netherlands beat Austria in the other game by a big margin as well. The probability of that happening is next to impossible, as France has yet to concede even a single goal in this tournament.
Poland put an axe on their own foot in the game against Austria, where they lost the game in the transition. Their back line has been the major culprit, as Austria took massive advantage of that. Piatek did get them into the game, but their ability to not stay in it has sent them packing. France, on the other hand, only needs to start scoring more goals as they go into the knockout stages.
Facts:
- France and Poland will be meeting for only the third time in a major competition on Tuesday. Both of their previous meetings have come at the World Cup, as this fixture will be the first time these two nations face each other. Their first meeting came in the 3rd-placed playoff game of the 1982 FIFA World Cup, where Poland won. More recently, they played each other in the 2022 World Cup in the round of 16, with the Les Blues winning 3-1 to move on to the quarterfinals.
- France has a brilliant record against Poland, having not lost in any of their last eight outings in all tournaments. The Les Blues have won four games and drawn four. They last lost to the Polish way back in 1982 by 4 goals to nil in an exhibition match.
- Poland, in recent Euro editions, has failed to end their group stage on a high. Their record of winning the last group game is very poor. Poland have won just one of their last four games in the final week of the group stage. They have lost on three occasions, with their only win coming against Ukraine in the 2016 Euros.
- Didier Deschamps has a formidable record as France's manager in the group stages of the Euros. The World Cup-winning manager has not lost a single game in the group stages of the Euros, winning four and drawing four. Their last defeat in the group stages came under previous manager Laurent Blanc in 2012 when they lost the last game to Sweden.
France vs Poland: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the head-to-head record, France has given Poland next to no chance in their recent games. In the last five games played between these two teams in all competitions, France has won three games, two of which ended in a draw, with Poland having no victories to boast about.
Poland should be strengthened with the return of their captain and best player, Robert Lewandowski. However, their problems lay mostly in their midfield and defence. The Polish have been really bad at defending transitions, and that is what cost them the game against Austria. Lewandowski won’t make a difference unless Poland stops the goals at their end.
France is one of the best teams when it comes to playing on the transition, and that is why we feel Poland will be destroyed in this game. The return of Mbappe also makes France strong and gives them just another feather in their better chance of winning.
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France vs Poland: predictions and betting tips
According to the bookmakers, France goes into this game as massive odds-on favourites to beat Poland on Tuesday. France was superior to the Netherlands in their last game and should have easily scored more on the day. That and the fact that Poland is one of the worst teams in the Euros make France the big favourites. Poland does not have much to play for, plus on a normal day, beating France is one of the most difficult tasks for the best of teams. Hence, Poland goes into this as a massive underdog.
Poland's last game against Austria was decent, but it was their lack of creativity in the final third that cost them. Poland had just one goal to show against Austria, with them having an xG of 1.47. Austria, on the other hand, scored three goals with a slightly better xG, showing that Poland has not created enough for their attackers. They have had goal-scoring issues prior to this tournament as well, averaging 1.8 goals per game.
France, in their game, were fortunate towards the end but should have been miles ahead in terms of goals. Deschamps’ men came out all guns blazing against the Netherlands in the start, but they could not get past Verbruggen. The Les Blues never really looked composed in front of goal in the game. Against the Netherlands, they registered an xG of 1.39 goals and scored 0 goals on the night. France is generally lethal in front of goal, averaging 2.9 goals in 2024; however, they were definitely missing their shooting boots against the Netherlands.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We believe that this game will easily be won by France on Tuesday. The Netherlands have a decent chance of beating Austria; hence, France will want to keep the winning momentum going into the knockouts and will want to do so by finishing top of the group.
We expect France to be the top goal scorer in this game against Poland. Les Blues to score two or more goals is our prediction in this game. We also back them to win by a margin of two or more goals. France in both of their previous games should have scored more goals, and we believe that this will be the game where the floodgates will open for France. We also back the French team to keep their third consecutive clean sheet against Poland. France defensively looks formidable, and though Poland has scored in both of their games, we do not expect them to break the French backline in this one.
France registered 15 shots against the Netherlands in their last game, and here we predict that Poland will also be bombarded with a lot of attempts. The French average 14.7 shots per game, and hence we do predict more of the same in this game. Our prediction is for France to have more than 15 shots against Poland. However, in the game against Poland, only 3 of the 15 shots ended up being on target. We expect France to improve on that tally, with our prediction being more than six shots on target in this game.
In terms of favourites to score, we back Kylian Mbappe to mark his return with a goal. Mbappe came very close to scoring his first ever Euro goal against Austria before going off injured due to a broken nose. He missed the game against the Netherlands due to an injury. The new Real Madrid signing is reportedly expected to start this game, and that is why we tip him as the favourite to score here.
Backing Antoine Griezmann for an anytime goal or assist is also a good shout, considering how close he came to scoring against the Netherlands. Griezmann has a good record for France in international tournaments, and we can see those floodgates opening for him as well in this game.
Final prediction:France will beat Poland.
France Player List
Goalkeepers:Alphonse Areola, Mike Maignan, Brice Samba
Defenders:Jonathan Clauss, Ibrahima Konate, William Saliba, Jules Kounde, Theo Hernandez, Ferland Mendy, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano
Midfielders: N'Golo Kante, Eduardo Camavinga, Adrien Rabiot, Antoine Griezmann, Aurelien Tchouameni, Warren Zaire-Emery, Youssouf Fofana
Forwards: Kylian Mbappe, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele, Kingsley Coman, Marcus Thuram, Randal Kolo Muani, Olivier Giroud
France Playing XI
Player |
ole |
Mike Maignan |
Goalkeeper |
Jules Kounde |
Defender |
Dayot Upamecano |
Defender |
William Saliba |
Defender |
Theo Hernandez |
Defender |
N’Golo Kante |
Midfielder |
Adrien Rabiot |
Midfielder |
Ousmane Dembele |
Midfielder |
Antoine Griezmann |
Attacker |
Kylian Mbappe |
Attacker |
Marcus Thuram |
Attacker |
France Team Form(Last five games): D, W, D, W, W
Poland Player List
Goalkeepers:Wojciech Szczęsny, Marcin Bulka, Łukasz Skorupski
Defenders:Jan Bednarek, Bartosz Bereszyński, Jakub Kiwior, Bartosz Salamon, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Paweł Dawidowicz, Sebastian Walukiewicz
Midfielders:Przemysław Frankowski, Kamil Grośicki, Jakub Moder, Taras Romanczuk, Damian Szymanski, Nikola Załewski, Jakub Piotrowski, Bartosz Slisz, Sebastian Szymański, Kacper Urbański, Piotr Zieliński, Piotr Zielenski
Forwards:Adam Buksa, Robert Lewandowski, Krzysztof Piątek, Kamil Swiderski.
Poland Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Wojciech Szczęsny |
Goalkeeper |
Jan Bednarek |
Defender |
Paweł Dawidowicz |
Defender |
Jakub Kiwior |
Defender |
Przemysław Frankowski |
Wingback |
Nikola Załewski |
Wingback |
Piotr Zielenski |
Midfielder |
Bartosz Slisz |
Midfielder |
Jakub Piotrowski |
Midfielder |
Kamil Swiderski |
Attacker |
Krzysztof Piątek |
Attacker |
Poland Team Form(Last five games): W, L, W, W, D
France vs Poland Head-To-Head
Matches Played:17
France wins:9
Poland wins:3
Matches are drawn:5
France vs Poland Betting Odds
France to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.30.
Poland to win the match (PARIMATCH): 10.55.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 5.72.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
France
Deschamps in this game will certainly be looking for a massive win to keep their morale upbeat come the start of the business end of the tournament. France has scored way fewer goals, and this game against Poland could be a perfect warm-up game. Poland has lacked consistency in this tournament, and we do not see them getting that back, especially against a team like France. They also do not have anything to play for, with their hopes of qualifying being next to zero. We do not see them beating France, let alone beating them by two or more goals. Hence, our prediction for this game is a 3-0 France win at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.
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