Italy vs Albania Match Prediction
European Championship
BVB Stadion Dortmund
Italy, in preparation for this tournament, played two friendlies against Turkey and Bosnia. In typical Azzurri fashion, they were successful in not conceding a goal in any of those two games. Against Turkey, however, in the first game, they also failed to find the back of the net. Spalletti’s men were not given an opportunity by the Turkish players to have a stronghold in the game, and eventually the scoreline was fair as both teams shared the spoils. Against Bosnia, Italy played much better. They looked good in attack, and the likes of Scamacca and Chiesa had a raft of chances. It was Fratessi’s goal in the 38th minute that won them the game at the Stadio Carlo Castellani stadium.
Albania have two victories to show for in their warm-up games in the build-up to Euro 2024. In the first game, they faced off against Liechtenstein, where they completely dominated the entirety of the 90 minutes. Broja, Asani, and Muci were all on the scoresheet. They beat Azerbaijan in the second game, with goals from Bajrami, Manaj, and Laci scoring in a 3-1 win at the Haladas stadium.
Facts:
- When Italy and Albania square up against each other on Sunday, it will be the first time that will happen in a major tournament. Both of these teams have faced each other only since 2014 in their history, with Italy winning on every occasion, scoring seven goals, and conceding just one in four games.
- Italy will be making their 11th appearance in the UEFA Euro since its inception. The Azzurri go into this tournament as defending champions, with only Spain winning it in back-to-back seasons. Italy has two Euro titles in their trophy cabinet, with only Spain and Germany having more, with three each.
- Italy is known to be one of the best teams when it comes to the art of defending, and they have the numbers to prove that, especially in the Euros. The Azzurri have never conceded more than one goal in any of their games in the last two editions of the Euros. In the 12 matches they have played across the last two editions of the competition in 2016 and 2020, Italy have conceded only six goals.
- Albania last featured in a major tournament in Euro 2016, which was also their only appearance. On Sunday, they will enter their second major tournament in their history, as they have never ever featured in the FIFA World Cup.
- Albania have only won one game in a major tournament, with that victory coming against Romania in the 2016 edition of the Euros. The Eagles finished third in the group and were eventually knocked out, with France and Switzerland going through.
Italy vs Albania: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the recent head-to-head record, the weighing scale tilts highly in favour of the Italians. In the last four games between these two teams, Italy has ended up winning every one, with Albania failing to get even a single win. The last time these two teams came face-to-face was in a friendly in 2022. Italy ended up winning the game 3-1, with Vincenzo Grifo scoring two well-taken goals on the night. Giovanni Di Lorenzo was also on the scoresheet for the Azzurri that day. Ardian Ismajli scored the only goal for Albania ever against Italy in their history.
In terms of how this game could pan out, we do see Albania playing more on the break. Italy has the ability and the technicians to play with the ball more. Both teams do not like controlling proceedings, so it will be interesting to see how this pans out. Albania had a stunning qualifying campaign, and in that run-in, they did show that on their day, they could upset anybody. However, we do not see that happening on Sunday, and we do back Italy with a better shot of winning due to their know-how of getting the job done, especially in major tournaments.
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Italy vs Albania: Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, Italy goes into this game with overwhelming odds as favourites to beat Albania on Sunday. The bookies are favouring Italy due to the sheer fact that they have a better squad than Albania. The Italians also have a nasty record against the Albanians, plus the former are the defending champions of this tournament. All these points factor into the reasoning of the oddsmakers.
Italy in 2024 has had some really good wins in preparation for this tournament. This Italy team has lost just one game out of the 10 they have played so far in 2024. They have won a total of six games and drawn three. When it comes to their overall scoring record this calendar year, the Italians have scored 1.80 goals from an expected goal ratio of 1.72. Italy, in major tournaments, just knows how to get the job done. They are the masters of the dark arts on the international stage, especially when it comes to their defence.
Since the start of 2024, Albania has had more of a bumpy ride in the buildup to this edition of the Euros. They have won 5 of their 10 games this year, drawing 3 and losing 2. They have had a 50% win record since the start of 2024, with Italy having just a 10% advantage over them. The Albanian attack averages 1.50 goals overall when they have played this year, compared to an expected goal ratio of 1.11.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We expect this game to be quite a low-scoring affair. Both teams, as usual, will be more than happy to surrender possession and invite the opposition to have more of the ball. We can see this game being quite a scrappy affair as both teams will be compact in their defensive shape. Our prediction here is also for both teams to score a combined tally of under 3 goals. We can see this game being decided by a single goal. Of course, we do predict Italy to score in this game, and we will also back them to keep a clean sheet here. Albania have failed to score in 30% of their games in 2024, with Italy keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their games this year. The numbers have Italy restricting Albania from scoring even a single goal on Sunday.
In this game, we do back Italy to score the opening goal. They have opened the scoring in eight of their 10 games this calendar year. Albania have conceded the first goal in four of their 10 games in 2024. Hence, the numbers do add up when it comes to backing Italy to get the first goal on Sunday.
For Italy, we back Gianluca Scamacca to score anytime in the game. The striker did not have a very good qualifying campaign in an Italian shirt, but his domestic campaign for Atalanta was simply stunning. Scamacca has the ability to shine on big occasions, and hence we do back the big Italian. We also encourage Barella to register and assist anytime in the game. Barella is practically on every set piece for Italy, including corners and free kicks. The midfielder had a very good qualifying campaign for Italy, registering three assists and creating 15 chances. No Italian player created and assisted more than Barella in the qualifiers for Italy.
Final Prediction:Italy to beat Albania
Italy Player List
Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alex Meret, Ivan Provedel, Guglielmo Vicario
Defenders: Alessandro Bastoni, Raoul Bellanova, Alessandro Buongiorno, Riccardo Calafiori, Andrea Cambiaso, Matteo Darmian, Giovanni di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Gianluca Mancini, Federico Gatti
Midfielders:Nicolo Barella, Bryan Cristante, Nicolo Fagioli, Michael Folorunsho, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini
Forwards:Federico Chiesa, Stephan El Shaarawy, Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui, Gianluca Scamacca, Mattia Zaccagni
Italy Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Gianluigi Donnarumma |
Goalkeeper |
Matteo Darmian |
Defender |
Alessandro Bastoni |
Defender |
Alessandro Buongiorno |
Defender |
Raoul Bellanova |
Defender |
Federico Dimarco |
Defender |
Jorginho |
Midfielder |
Nicolo Barella |
Midfielder |
Davide Frattesi |
Attacker |
Federico Chiesa |
Attacker |
Gianluca Scamacca |
Attacker |
Italy Team Form(Last five games): W, D, W, W, D
Albania Player List
Goalkeepers: Etrit Berisha, Thomas Strakosha, Elhan Kastrati
Defenders:Berat Djimsiti, Elseid Hysaj, Ivan Balliu, Ardian Ismajli, Arlind Ajeti, Naser Aliji, Mario Mitaj, Enea Mihaj, Marash Kumbulla.
Midfielders:Amir Abrashi, Kristjan Asllani, Nedim Bajrami, Medon Berisha, Klaus Gjasula, Qazim Laci, Ernest Muci, Ylber Ramadani.
Forwards:Jasir Asani, Armando Broja, Mirlind Daku, Arber Hoxha, Rey Manaj, Taulant Seferi
Albania Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Thomas Strakosha |
Goalkeeper |
Ivan Balliu |
Defender |
Ardian Ismajli |
Defender |
Berat Djimsiti |
Defender |
Mario Mitaj |
Defender |
Nedim Bajrami |
Midfielder |
Kristjan Asllani |
Midfielder |
Medon Berisha |
Midfielder |
Jasir Asani |
Attacker |
Armando Broja |
Attacker |
Mirlind Daku |
Attacker |
Albania Team Form(Last five games): W, W, L, L, D
Italy vs Albania Head-To-Head
Matches Played:4
Italy wins:4
Albania wins:0
Matches are drawn:0
Italy vs Albania Betting Odds
Italy to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.43.
Albania to win the match (PARIMATCH): 8.40.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.60.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Italy
The best teams in the world have struggled to break the might of the Italian defence. But this is a different Italian team. We do expect the principles to remain the same as Italy has always adopted. Albania is a team of fierce competitors. They do have a raft of players that feature in the Italian domestic league and, hence, will be quite familiar with many of the Azzurri players. However, we do not believe that the Eagles have enough in their ranks to beat the defending champions. Our score prediction for this game is a 2-0 win for Italy on Sunday at Signal Iduna Park.
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