Poland vs Netherlands Match Prediction
European Championship
Volksparkstadion
The Netherlands, in their qualifiers, did quite well. They won eight of their 10 games, losing only to France on both occasions. Their buildup to the tournament in the two friendlies has been promising. In the first game, they overcame Canada in the second half to demolish them 4-0. Depay, Frimpong, Weghorst, and Van Dijk all got on the scoresheet. They replicated the same scoreline in the second game as they pumped Iceland with another four goals. Van Dijk and Weghorst scored in successive games, with Simons and Malen adding a goal each to their Oranje account on the night.
Poland, on the other hand, had decent Euro Qualifiers. They lost 3 games out of the 10 games, just managing to get to the Euros after overcoming Wales on penalties in a knockout tie. They won both of their friendlies in the buildup to this game. Poland beat a good Ukraine team with goals from Walukiewicz, Zielinski, and Romanczuk. In the second game, they beat Turkey with a last-minute winner from Zalewski. All in all, two good victories for Poland against two strong Euro teams.
Facts:
- Poland goes into this game against the Netherlands with not the best of records. The Poles have failed to win any of their last 12 games against the Oranje. Poland has drawn five and lost seven of those games. The last time Poland beat the Netherlands was way back in 1980 in a Euro qualifying game.
- Poland and the Netherlands have faced each other quite a few times, but this meeting on Sunday will be the first time these two teams will be facing each other in a major competition. Poland could be the Netherlands' 18th scalp after already beating 17 teams in the competition. Only Germany has beaten more countries at the Euros with 19 wins.
- After not qualifying for 12 straight editions of the Euros, Poland will now be playing their fifth straight edition. Poland have played a total of 14 games in the Euros. They, however, do not have a very good record, having won just two games in normal time. Both of those victories came in the 2016 edition of the tournament, when the Euros were co-hosted by them.
- The Netherlands actually have a very good record when it comes to making it deep in this competition. The Oranje have made the semi-finals of the Euros four times since 1988. All four semi-final appearances came between 1988 and 2004. Since 2004, they have not made the last 4.
- The Netherlands have a fantastic scoring record at the Euros in general. The Oranje are the best-scoring team in the history of the Euros. The Dutch average 1.68 goals per game, scoring 65 goals in 39 games.
- The Netherlands in the Euros do not tend to draw games recently. The Dutch either have won their games or have lost. In the last 12 games at the Euros, the Netherlands have a 50% record of winning 6 and losing 6.
Poland vs the Netherlands: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the recent head-to-head record, the Netherlands have a much better record than Poland. In the last five games played between these two teams, Poland has not managed to win a single game. The Netherlands, on the other hand, have won four, with one game ending in a dead rubber. These two teams last faced off against each other in the group stages of the Nations League. The Netherlands on the day as they beat the Poles 2-0. Gakpo and Bergwijn were on the scoresheet for the Dutch.
Both teams go into this game with key players missing. The Netherlands have a massive problem in midfield, and Poland are missing probably one of the best players in their history. Controlling games will be an issue for the Netherlands, as De Jong is a ball retention magnet. The ability to break play will also be a worry for the Netherlands with Koopmeiners out.
Poland would not have many chances in this game, but when you do get a few, you want them to fall at the feet of Lewandowski. We believe that this game will be a cagey affair. However, the Netherlands should have enough in them to see this one out. Hence, we give the Oranje a better chance of winning.
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Poland vs Netherlands: Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, the Netherlands do go into this game as massive favourites to win against Poland in this group D fixture. The Netherlands go into this game in good form after winning both of their warm-up games in the buildup to this game. Poland, on a normal day, would be underdogs, but without their star player, it makes things worse.
The Netherlands in 2024 will have a formidable record on the international stage. The start of this calendar year was a massive improvement on what they achieved last year. The Netherlands this season have lost just 2 games out of a total of 10 games played. Ronald Koeman has been able to steady the ship after taking over from Van Gaal. Considering their overall scoring record this calendar year, the Dutch have scored 2.70 goals from an expected goal ratio of 1.86. We expect the Netherlands to play on the front foot in this game. A lot of shots on Poland’s goal was our expectation.
Since the start of 2024, Poland has actually been quite good. Poland have lost just 1 of the 10 games that they have played this season. Lewandowski and Co. average 1.80 goals overall when they have played this year, compared to an expected goal ratio of 2.00.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We expect this game to have some goals. Poland will be expected to be the team that plays more on the backfoot. The Netherlands, on the other hand, will look to have more of the ball in this game. Our prediction here is for both teams to score a combined tally of three or more goals. We do expect both the Netherlands and Poland to score in this game. We do not see any team keeping a clean sheet here. The Netherlands have failed to score in any of their overall games this year, with Poland failing to find the back of the net in 20% of their total games. Both teams have good scoring records, and hence we do see the Netherlands and Poland finding the back of the net.
For Poland, we back Robert Lewandowski to go in as the favourite to score in this game, provided he is fit enough to play. If Lewandowski does indeed play, then his chances of scoring are high because his record at the Euros as a Polish player is sublime. The Barcelona striker has scored five goals in the Euros. Lewandowski has also scored each of Poland’s three goals in Euro 2020. If Lewandowski does not play, then backing Piatek will be a good shout.
For the Netherlands, we back Memphis Depay to score in this game. Depay has been really good in the buildup to this tournament. His performances in the two friendlies warranted our placing him as the favourite to score. Memphis scored one goal in the first game, and his performance in the second game was really good as well. We also back Jeremie Frimpong to either score or assist in this game. Frimpong was also excellent in both games and comes into this game on the back of some stunning performances for his club in Bayer Leverkusen.
Final Prediction:Netherlands to beat Poland
Poland Player List
Goalkeepers:Wojciech Szczęsny, Marcin Bulka, Łukasz Skorupski
Defenders:Jan Bednarek, Bartosz Bereszyński, Jakub Kiwior, Bartosz Salamon, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Paweł Dawidowicz, Sebastian Walukiewicz
Midfielders:Przemysław Frankowski, Kamil Grośicki, Jakub Moder, Taras Romanczuk, Damian Szymanski, Nikola Załewski, Jakub Piotrowski, Bartosz Slisz, Sebastian Szymański, Kacper Urbański, Piotr Zieliński, Piotr Zielenski
Forwards:Adam Buksa, Robert Lewandowski, Krzysztof Piątek, Kamil Swiderski.
Poland Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Wojciech Szczęsny |
Goalkeeper |
Jan Bednarek |
Defender |
Paweł Dawidowicz |
Defender |
Jakub Kiwior |
Defender |
Przemysław Frankowski |
Wingback |
Nikola Załewski |
Wingback |
Piotr Zielenski |
Midfielder |
Bartosz Slisz |
Midfielder |
Jakub Piotrowski |
Midfielder |
Kamil Swiderski |
Attacker |
Krzysztof Piątek |
Attacker |
Poland Team Form(Last five games): W, W, D, W, W
Netherlands Player List
Goalkeepers:Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Bart Verbruggen
Defenders:Nathan Ake, Daley Blind, Virgil van Dijk, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Stefan de Vrij, Ian Maatsen
Midfielders:Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Jerdy Schouten, Xavi Simons, Joey Veerman, Georginio Wijnaldum
Forwards:Steven Bergwijn, Brian Brobbey, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Wout Weghorst, Joshua Zirkzee
Netherlands Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Bart Verbruggen |
Goalkeeper |
Denzel Dumfries |
Defender |
Virgil Van Dijk |
Defender |
Nathan Ake |
Defender |
Matthijs de Ligt |
Defender |
Tijjani Reijnders |
Midfielder |
Joey Veerman |
Midfielder |
Jerdy Schouten |
Midfielder |
Jeremie Frimpong |
Attacker |
Memphis Depay |
Attacker |
Cody Gakpo |
Attacker |
Netherlands Team Form(Last five games): W, W, L, W, W
Poland vs Netherlands Head-To-Head
Matches Played:19
Poland wins:3
Netherlands wins:9
Matches are drawn:7
Poland vs Netherlands Betting Odds
Poland to win the match (PARIMATCH): 6.55.
Netherlands to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.56.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.10.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Netherlands
Poland are having injury issues of their own, as their main player, Robert Lewandowski, could miss this game after he got injured in their second friendly. Piatek is an able replacement, but he is not as good as Poland’s top scorer. Ronald Koeman is backed by some players who are in very good form. The likes of Van Dijk, Frimpong, Simmons, and Memphis will be the difference. Our prediction for this game at the Volksparkstadion stadium is for the Netherlands to win 2-1 on the day.
Parimatch