Portugal vs France Match Prediction
European Championship
Volksparkstadion
Portugal go into this game on the back of a gruelling 120-minute tie against Slovenia. Portugal failed to break their resolve as Cristiano Ronaldo’s penalty was saved by Oblak to send the game into extra time. Portugal, however, prevailed in the shootout, with Ronaldo, Bruno, and Bernardo all converting. Diogo Costa made three successive penalty saves.
France dominated Belgium in their round of 16 ties, but they failed to score as Casteels in goal made some amazing saves to deny the likes of Thuram, Griezmann, and Mbappe. Just when the game was looking like it was heading to extra time, Kolo Muani’s shot took a deflection from Vertonghen and went into the net. France advanced with yet another close win.
Facts:
- Portugal and France have had their fair share of meetings at the UEFA European Championships. The game on Saturday will be the fifth time these two nations have met. In the four games prior to this, France won the first two games with wins in 1984 and 2000. In both of those editions, France went on to win the Euros. However, in the next two games, Portugal remained unbeaten against the Les Blues, drawing 2-2 in 2020 and winning the 2016 final.
- France have been very consistent in their performances at major tournaments. The Les Blues have reached the semi-finals in three of their last four major tournaments, and a win against Portugal would make it four in five. The teams that have knocked out France in a major competition quarterfinal have all gone on to win the trophy that year. Italy in the 1938 World Cup, Greece in the 2004 Euros, Spain in the 2012 Euros, and Germany in the 2014 World Cup.
- Portugal has had a very good run of making it into the quarterfinals in recent history. Since the quarters were introduced in the 1996 edition of the Euros, Portugal has made this stage seven times, which is the highest amongst all teams. Portugal has a good record of progressing to the semis, as they have done it four out of six times. The only time they failed was against Czechia in 1996 and Germany in 2008.
Portugal vs France: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the recent head-to-head record, France has had the better overall and in recent meetings. In the last six games played between these two nations in all competitions, France has won three games; two games have ended in a draw, with Portugal winning just once.
France has overall also gotten the better of Portugal on most occasions. The Les Blues have won a total of 11 games out of their last 14, drawing two and losing just once. That one defeat came in the 2016 Euro Final when Portugal beat France in extra time at home.
The biggest issue for both teams here is the style of football and scoring. Portugal has created the chances, but their ability to not convert is a big issue. Martinez needs to find a solution to get the better of Ronaldo. Dropping Ronaldo would be a solution; however, we do not see that happening, and that is what could cost Portugal this game. Partnering Ronaldo with another striker could also be a solution.
France, on the other hand, is not creating much, especially from open play. The Les Blues have yet to score a goal from open play in this competition. 2 out of the 3 goals they have scored in this competition have been their own. The one goal scored by Mbappe came from the penalty spot. France, however, is a clutch team, especially as the tournament gets deeper, and that is why we expect them to win.
Portugal vs France: Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, France has the backing in this game to beat Portugal, but not by an overwhelming margin. Both teams, prior to the competition starting, went in as favourites to win. However, the placement of the draw has seen these two juggernauts meet in the quarterfinals. France has been backed by the bookies due to their stunning record against Portugal. The Les Blues also know how to play in big games and in pressure situations. Portugal still does not look like a composed side after failing to beat Slovenia in normal time, and hence they go into this fixture as underdogs.
Portugal, in their last game, was stretched both physically and mentally against Slovenia. In a game lasting 120 minutes, Portugal failed to score a single goal. They had ample attempts, but the ball wouldn’t go in. Portugal had an expected goals ratio of 1.97 and scored none in comparison to Slovenia, who had an xG of 0.60 and also had no goals to show for. Portugal is finding it hard to convert their chances, and that stems from the fact that Cristiano Ronaldo has not been in the best of form. Roberto Martinez has to get his talent fired because their goal output is becoming a big concern.
France themselves have had a very underwhelming tournament by their standards. Their football also, at the moment, looks very one-dimensional with a lack of ideas. Defensively, they have been good, but their attack is failing to take a good array of chances. Against Belgium, their game was flat. They did get a goal in the end, with their expected goal tally being 1.06. That is very low considering France’s attacking potential.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We see this game having few goals. We see this game as a cagey affair, with both teams playing off what the other team does. These two teams will be expected to treat this like a test match. We back both teams in this game to score. Both nations’ defences have done well, but we do expect the attacks to bypass them on Saturday.
Portugal’s issues stem from the fact that they have not been able to make most of their attempts. Ronaldo has had 20 shots in this edition of the Euros with no goals to show for. Hence, we do expect France to take note of that and set it up deep. We can see France frustrating Portugal into taking shots. Ronaldo does like to test the keeper; hence, we expect the Portugal captain to have three or more shots in this game. We expect this game to be played mostly in the midfield, so we can see N’Golo Kante being a busy man in the centre. We back Kante to win three or more tackles in this game. Portugal are a transitional team, so we can see Kante dispossessing them a lot.
Cristiano Ronaldo is not having the best of international tournaments, as he still has to score his first goal in this edition of the Euros. Ronaldo had one of his worst games in a Portugal shirt against Slovenia, as he was a frustrated and emotional figure. The thing, however, with Ronaldo is that he does get chances to score, and even though he is in a rough patch, we will continue to back the Al Nassr man. Ronaldo has had 20 shots in the Euros as of now. He has also failed to score in any of his last eight games in the World Cup and Euros combined. He will always be near the goal, though. Ronaldo missing a penalty is very rare. The perks of backing the Portugal captain are that he will play the entire 120 minutes and is also on penalty. We will continue to keep our faith in Ronaldo.
Similarly, for France, Mbappe has not had a very good Euro tournament. Mbappe does, however, have a goal to his name, but even that came from a penalty. The Real Madrid player playing with a mask is bound to be a distraction, but he still has the quality to perform, especially when the stakes are high. Mbappe has a knack for scoring in big games, which is why he continues to be our pick for the favourite to score in this game.
Final prediction:France will beat Portugal.
Portugal Player List
Goalkeepers: Diogo Costa, Jose Sa, Rui Patricio
Defenders:Antonio Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Goncalo Inacio, Joao Cancelo, Nelson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Ruben Dias
Midfielders:Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Joao Palhinha, Otavio Monteiro, Ruben Neves, Vitinha
Forwards:Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceicao, Goncalo Ramos, Joao Felix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leao
Portugal Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Diogo Costa |
Goalkeeper |
|
Joao Cancelo |
Defender |
|
Ruben Dias |
Defender |
|
Pepe |
Defender |
|
Nuno Medes |
Defender |
|
Joao Palhinha |
Midfielder |
|
Vitinha |
Midfielder |
|
Bruno Fernandes |
Midfielder |
|
Bernardo Silva |
Attacker |
|
Cristiano Ronaldo |
Attacker |
|
Rafael Leao |
Attacker |
Portugal Team Form(Last five games): W, L, W, W, W
France Player List
Goalkeepers:Alphonse Areola, Mike Maignan, Brice Samba
Defenders:Jonathan Clauss, Ibrahima Konate, William Saliba, Jules Kounde, Theo Hernandez, Ferland Mendy, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano
Midfielders: N'Golo Kante, Eduardo Camavinga, Adrien Rabiot, Antoine Griezmann, Aurelien Tchouameni, Warren Zaire-Emery, Youssouf Fofana
Forwards: Kylian Mbappe, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele, Kingsley Coman, Marcus Thuram, Randal Kolo Muani, Olivier Giroud
France Playing XI
|
Player |
ole |
|
Mike Maignan |
Goalkeeper |
|
Jules Kounde |
Defender |
|
Dayot Upamecano |
Defender |
|
William Saliba |
Defender |
|
Theo Hernandez |
Defender |
|
N’Golo Kante |
Midfielder |
|
Adrien Rabiot |
Midfielder |
|
Ousmane Dembele |
Midfielder |
|
Antoine Griezmann |
Attacker |
|
Kylian Mbappe |
Attacker |
|
Marcus Thuram |
Attacker |
France Team Form(Last five games): W, D, D, W, D
Portugal vs France Head-To-Head
Matches Played:28
Portugal wins:6
France wins:19
Matches are drawn:3
Portugal vs France Betting Odds
Portugal to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.48.
France to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.40.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.23.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
France
Parimatch