Portugal vs Slovenia Match Prediction
European Championship
Frankfurt Arena
Slovenia made history by making the round of 16 of a major competition for the first time. They achieved that by keeping England at bay for the entire 90 minutes. Slovenia were solid defensively, giving the Three Lions nothing to get at. Slovenia has yet to lose a game in this competition; however, they have not even won a game, with all of their three group stage encounters being draws.
Facts:
- Portugal has recently had good memories when it comes to the round of 16, and they have a record against their name at this stage of the competition. Portugal holds the highest margin of victory in a major tournament at the round of 16 stage. In the 2022 World Cup, they ended up beating Switzerland 6-1, with Goncalo Ramos scoring a hat-trick.
- This is a landmark moment for Slovenia in their football history. Their draw against England ensured that they would be playing in the knockout round of a major competition for the first time.
- This will be Portugal’s 26th appearance in the round of 16 at a major competition, including the World Cup and Euros. Their recent record at the round of 16 stage since winning the Euros in 2016 has been quite poor. They have lost three of their last four games in the round of 16 at a major competition. The only exception was the 7-1 win against Switzerland in the last World Cup.
- Slovenia has been one of the teams that qualified for the knockout stages with the lowest possession stats in history. In the three group games, Slovenia averaged just 32% possession. Only Sweden with 30% in 2020 and Iceland with 29% in 2016 have qualified to the round of 16 with a lesser average possession rate than Slovenia.
Portugal vs Slovenia: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the recent head-to-head record, these two teams have faced off against each other just once in their history. That meeting came in preparation for the Euros, as both played a friendly in March. It was a shock, as Portugal was beaten at the Stozice Stadium in Ljubljana. Adam Gnezda, Cerin, and Timi Elsnik scored two late goals to sink Portugal on the day.
We expect Portugal to be at its best on Tuesday. We still believe that the result against Georgia was a blip, and Portugal should actually be taking positives from that game. It got substantial minutes in some of the fringe players’ legs who could have a role to play in the tournament. Portugal tends to create magic when Bernanrdo and Burno Fernandes play together. Ronaldo not scoring is a concern, but what is sure is that a man always finds a way to overcome bad patches.
Slovenia will need to get out of their defensive shape more in order to supplement their attack. Sesko and co. are sometimes feeding scraps. Slovenia in this game will need to be more adventurous. That could end up hurting them, but so could sitting back. Based on everything, we do feel that Portugal has a better chance of winning due to the different match winners they have in their team.
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Portugal vs Slovenia: Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, Portugal is a massive favourite to not only beat Slovenia but also do so convincingly. The oddsmakers are favouring Portugal due to the good first two games that they had in the competition. They are going into this game on the back of a loss in their final group game against Georgia, but the return of key players after a rest boosts Portugal’s hopes. Slovenia has been a tough nut to crack in this competition, but against Portugal, is going to be a tough encounter. Portugal have the backing of the bookies due to the firepower they possess in the team.
Portugal going into this game will need to pull all of their morale from the first two games, as they were humbled by Georgia. The Portuguese did not perform very badly, as they should have scored at least one goal on the night. They were quite unlucky in some decisions not going their way. Portugal had an expected goals ratio of 2.04 and scored none in comparison to Georgia, who had an xG of 1.65 and scored 2 goals. Cristiano and Co. will pay note of this result, but one loss does not dither from the fact that they do have one of the best attacking units in the Euros.
Slovenia have done really well to get that all-important point against England and make their way to the knockout stages. In terms of their attacking performance, they were not particularly impressive. Slovenia had an xG of just 0.20. They did not, in any way, trouble England with their strikers. Goal scoring has been a problem for them, and we see that as a big reason why Slovenia will find it difficult to beat Portugal.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We see this game having goals, but with Portugal having most of them. We do want both Portugal and Slovenia to score in this game on Tuesday. Our prediction here is also for both teams to score a combined tally of over three goals. Portugal winning this game by a margin of two or more goals is our call.
Portugal have been highly impressive in terms of their attack. They were unlucky not to score against Georgia, and against Slovenia, we surely see them scoring. Despite Slovenia’s attacking issues, we do back them to score against Portugal. Martinez’s team has looked a little shaky in defence, conceding in two of their three group games. Hence, we see both teams scoring in this game. Portugal has not had the best of records when it comes to scoring first. They have opened the scoring in just one of their three group games. However, in this game, we do back them to score first.
When it comes to scoring for Portugal, we will continue to back Cristiano Ronaldo, even though his record at major competitions has not been really good. Ronaldo is on his biggest goal-scoring drought in major competitions. The Al Nassr striker has not scored in any of his last seven Euros and World Cups combined. His last goal in a major competition was against Ghana in the 2022 World Cup. He has failed to score a single goal in 19 shots. However, for Ronaldo, it will come. He always finds a way to score goals, especially on the big stages. Class is always permanent, and we do see him scoring from the many shots he is bound to take.
Slovenia has the same issue with their strikers, Benjamin Sesko and Andraz Sporar. These two Slovenian strikers start as a pair upfront but have yet to find the back of the net in this tournament. Both Sporar and Sesko have had 12 shots between them. Sporar leads with 7 shots and Sesko with 5. In spite of this, we do see one of these two players as the favourite to score against Portugal on Tuesday. We do back Sporar, as he does seem to run in behind defenders, whereas Sesko holds the ball more often.
Final prediction:Portugal will beat Slovenia.
Portugal Player List
Goalkeepers: Diogo Costa, Jose Sa, Rui Patricio
Defenders:Antonio Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Goncalo Inacio, Joao Cancelo, Nelson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Ruben Dias
Midfielders:Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Joao Palhinha, Otavio Monteiro, Ruben Neves, Vitinha
Forwards:Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceicao, Goncalo Ramos, Joao Felix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leao
Portugal Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Diogo Costa |
Goalkeeper |
Diogo Dalot |
Defender |
Ruben Dias |
Defender |
Pepe |
Defender |
Joao Cancelo |
Defender |
Joao Palhinha |
Midfielder |
Vitinha |
Midfielder |
Bruno Fernandes |
Midfielder |
Bernardo Silva |
Attacker |
Cristiano Ronaldo |
Attacker |
Rafael Leao |
Attacker |
Portugal Team Form(Last five games): L, W, W, W, L
Slovenia Player List
Goalkeepers:Jan Oblak, Vid Belec, Igor Vekic
Defenders:Petar Stojanovic, Jaka Bijol, Miha Blazic, Jure Balkovec, Zan Karnicnik, David Brekalo, Erik Janza, Vanja Drkusic
Midfielders:Timi Max Elsnik, Jasmin Kurtic, Benjamin Verbic, Sandi Lovric, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Tomi Horvat, Adrian Zeljkovic, Nino Zugelj, Josip Ilicic
Forwards:Andraz Sporar, Benjamin Sesko, Zan Celar, Jan Mlakar, Zan Vipotnik.
Slovenia Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Jan Oblak |
Goalkeeper |
Zan Karnicnik |
Defender |
David Brekalo |
Defender |
Jaka Bijol |
Defender |
Erik Janza |
Defender |
Tomi Horvat |
Midfielder |
Adam Gnezda Cerin |
Midfielder |
Timi Max Elsnik |
Midfielder |
Andraz Sporar |
Midfielder |
Benjamin Sesko |
Attacker |
Jan Mlakar |
Attacker |
Slovenia Team Form(Last five games): D, D, D, D, W
Portugal vs Slovenia Head-To-Head
Matches Played:1
Portugal wins:0
Slovenia wins:1
Matches are drawn:0
Portugal vs Slovenia Betting Odds
Portugal to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.37.
Slovenia to win the match (PARIMATCH): 9.65.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.90.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Portugal
Slovenia, on the other hand, did very well to hold their nerve and restrict an England side in their final group game. However, they played an English team that has not been the best attacking team lately. Portugal, however, in terms of their attack, is very dangerous, and hence we do not see how Slovenia keeps them out for 90 or even 120 minutes. We see Portugal getting many chances to score. Our prediction is a 3-1 Portugal win in normal time at the Frankfurt Arena.
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