Spain vs Croatia Match Prediction

SPAN

81%

Chance of Winning

CROA

19%

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European Championship

Olympiastadion

Spain and Croatia will inaugurate Group B of this year’s Euros as the two will collide at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. Spain are the veterans of this tournament, with this being their 12th edition of the Euros that they will feature in. Spain has also gone on to win the title on three occasions, which is also a joint record with Germany. The Spaniards continue to remain the only team in the history of the Euros to win the title in consecutive editions. Spain have had good preparation in terms of their last two friendlies. Oyarzabal’s three goals on the night propelled Spain to a 5-0 victory over Andorra. Ayoze Perez and Ferran Torres chipped in with goals as well. In their second friendly, they beat Northern Ireland comfortably as well. The Spaniards won 5-1 after 90 minutes thanks to a brace from Pedri and a goal each for Morata, Fabian Ruiz, and Oyarzabal.

Croatia had an even better preparation for Spain, as their friendlies in the build-up to this game were against even tougher opponents. Majer’s two goals on the night were the catalyst as Croatia beat North Macedonia 3-0. The bigger victory came against one of the favourites to win the tournament in Portugal. Luka Modric opened the scoring after converting a penalty that Vitinha conceded after fouling Kovacic. Diogo Jota got the visitors back into the game, but it was Budimir who immediately put his team back into the lead with a well-taken header. Croatia kept their defensive resolve to hold on and win against Portugal on the day.

Facts:

  • This will be the fourth consecutive time that Spain and Croatia will face off against each other in the Euros. Spain will also later face off against Italy for the fifth consecutive time in the Euros. Spain was victorious two times, once in 2012 and again in the last edition in 2020. Croatia won the tie in Euro 2016.
  • Spain and Croatia did go head-on in the last edition of the tournament, and that game ended up being a goal-scoring frenzy. That was a round of 16 fixture where both teams, after extra time, ended up scoring a total of eight goals in the game. The game ended 5-3 on the night, with Spain progressing. The only game to produce more goals in the Euros was in 1960, when France were beaten by Yugoslavia 5-4.
  • Croatia has done better when it comes to playing in World Cups than in Euros. Their progression towards the latter stages of the tournament has been consistent on the world stage. In the World Cup, they have made the semi-finals in three of their six appearances. However, in the Euros, they have never made it to the last four of the competition. Croatia has been featured in six Euro editions.
  • Croatia has always ended up getting beaten by the eventual winner of the competition in four of the last six major competitions they have participated in. In 2012, they were beaten by Spain, and the latter were crowned champions that year. Portugal beat them in 2016 and went on to be winners. They were beaten by France in the 2018 World Cup final. Argentina beat them in the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and then won against France in the final.

Spain vs Croatia: Chance of Winning

When it comes to the recent head-to-head record, these sides cannot be split. In the last five games, neither Spain nor Croatia have gotten the better of each other. Both Spain and Croatia have won two games each, with just one game ending in a stalemate. The last time these two teams squared off against each other was in the UEFA Nations League. Majer and Petkovic's misses from the spot saw Croatia lose the tie against Spain, as the game ended 0-0 after 90 minutes.

We expect Croatia to approach this game like they have in the past. Spain is a team that loves to play through opponents. Hence, we can see Croatia being very compact, especially through the middle. We expect Modric to be the x-factor in finding that key pass, especially on the counter. Croatia’s problems lie in their attack, as they do tend to be inconsistent at times.

Spain has a better chance of winning due to the sheer number of matchwinners they have in their team. We expect the young guns to shine in this game, especially Lamine Yamal, who has had a fantastic domestic season since he broke through at the age of 16.

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Spain vs Croatia Predictions and Betting Tips

According to the bookmakers, Spain goes into this game as heavy favourites to win this tie against Croatia. The bookies are favouring Spain due to their recent upsurge in form. Spain seems to have gotten their mojo back in their last couple of friendlies. Croatia are underdogs due to their poor record against their southern neighbours.

Spain in 2024 has been an absolute juggernaut heading into this tournament. Spain has lost just one game out of the 10 they have played this year. They have eight wins to show for and just one draw. Considering their overall scoring record this calendar year, the Spaniards have scored 3.95 goals from an expected goal ratio of 2.41. Over the years, Spain has been a team that loves to hold possession and dictate the game. This Spanish team, however, is slightly more transitional in how they play. They are lethal on the attack, and hence we do expect goals here.

Since the start of 2024, Croatia has had a half-decent record. They have won 7 of their 10 games this year, drawing 1 and losing 2. They have a 70% win record this year, which is not that bad in comparison to Spain’s 80%. Croatia averaged 1.90 goals overall when they played this year, compared to an expected goal ratio of 2.10.

Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We expect this game to have goals, but we do expect a frenzy here. Croatia, as usual, will be more than happy to surrender possession to Spain and play without the ball. The likes of Rodri, Ruiz, and Pedri will constantly be on the ball, and therefore we predict Spain to have more than 55% possession in this game. Our prediction here is also for both teams to score a combined tally of under 3.5 goals. Spain loves to attack, and Croatia is one of the toughest teams to break down in the world currently. We do expect both teams to score in this game. We do not see Croatia scoring more than two goals here. Their attacking output is not the best, as their xG is higher than the number of goals scored. Spain also has a good defence. Likewise, our prediction is for Spain to not score more than two goals in this game. Croatia has conceded just 0.6 goals this calendar year.

For Spain, we back Alvaro Morata to continue his brilliant scoring record in the UEFA Euros. Morata has always been consistent whenever he has pulled on a Spain shirt, especially in major tournaments. His record at the Euros is amazing. Morata has scored a total of six goals in his last two Euro tournaments. Only Cristiano Ronaldo with 8 and Griezmann with 7 have had more goals than him in the last two editions of the competition. Morata is brilliant when it comes to finishing his chances.

For Croatia, Andrej Kramaric scored in this game. The striker is their top scorer in 2024, with four goals already for Croatia. Kramaric is a big specimen that is dangerous for set pieces. He is a very good header of the ball, and his ability to finish chances out of nothing is what makes him a scary prospect. Spain is not the surest of teams at the back, and we can see Kramaric troubling them.

Final Prediction:Spain to beat Croatia

Spain Player List

Goalkeepers: Unai Simon, David Raya, Alex Remiro

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Jesus Navas, Aymeric Laporte, Robin Le Normand, Nacho, Dani Vivian, Alejandro Grimaldo, Marc Cucurella.

Midfielders: Rodri, Martin Zubimendi, Fabian, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Aleix Garcia, Fermin Lopez.

Attackers:Alvaro Morata, Joselu, Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, Ayoze Perez.

Spain Playing XI

Player

Role

Unai Simon

Goalkeeper

Dani Carvajal

Defender

Nacho

Defender

Robin Le Normand

Defender

Marc Cucurella

Defender

Pedri

Midfielder

Rodri

Midfielder

Fabian Ruiz

Midfielder

Lamine Yamal

Attacker

Alvaro Morata

Attacker

Nico Williams

Attacker

Spain Team Form(Last five games): W, W, D, L, W

Croatia Player List

Goalkeepers: Dominik Livakovic, Ivica Ivusic, Nediljko Labrovic

Defenders: Domagoj Vida, Josip Juranovic, Josko Gvardiol, Borna Sosa, Josip Stanisic, Josip Sutalo, Martin Erlic, Marin Pongracic

Midfielders: Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Marcelo Brozovic, Mario Pasalic, Nikola Vlasic, Lovro Majer, Luka Ivanusec, Luka Sucic, Martin Baturina

Attackers:Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, Bruno Petkovic, Marko Pjaca, Ante Budimir, Marco Pasalic

Croatia Playing XI

Player

Role

Dominik Livakovic

Goalkeeper

Josip Stanisic

Defender

Josip Sutalo

Defender

Marin Pongracic

Defender

Josko Gvardiol

Defender

Luka Modric

Midfielder

Matteo Kovacic

Midfielder

Marcelo Brozovic

Midfielder

Lovro Majer

Midfielder

Andrej Kramaric

Attacker

Ante Budimir

Attacker

Croatia Team Form(Last five games): W, W, D, W, W

Spain vs Croatia Head-To-Head

Matches Played:10

Spain wins:6

Croatia wins:3

Matches are drawn:1

Spain vs Croatia Betting Odds

Spain to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.96.

Croatia to win the match (PARIMATCH): 4.30.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.42.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Spain

The bookies in this game have backed Spain to overcome Croatia quite easily in this game, and we do agree with them. Spain, under manager De la Fuente, has done really well, especially in 2024. Spain, in the build-up to this, lacked cohesion in their set-up, but the manager looks to have gotten it right with his squad selection, as Spain ran riot in their last couple of friendlies. Spain has experience in their team with the likes of Nacho, Carvajal, Rodri, and Morata. Their youth prospects will be on display, with Yamal, Fermin, Pedri, and Nico Williams set to feature prominently.

Croatia, on the other hand, has been brilliant in their performances on the big stages. Zlatko Dalic’s team continues to be well organised, playing a more defensive-centric game. Croatia’s ability to stay in games is what makes them such a dangerous outfit, especially when it comes to competitions like these. This is a tricky game to predict, but we will back the oddsmakers in this one. Spain beating Croatia 2-1 at the Olympiastadion on Saturday is our call.

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