Spain vs Italy Match Prediction
European Championship
Arena AufSchalke
Spain, in their game against Croatia, were brilliant in the attack. Morata took advantage of Croatia’s poor line as he was fed in by Fabian Ruiz’s through ball. The Spanish striker did very well to beat Livakovic and put them ahead. The advantage was doubled as Fabian danced his way around the Croatian defence and slotted the ball into the bottom corner to make it 2-0. Carvajal, just before halftime, finished off with a beautiful cross from Lamine Yamal. Spain were given a scare in the second half as they conceded a penalty. Lucky for them, Petkovic missed, enabling Spain to keep a clean sheet.
Italy were themselves given a scare as early as 20 seconds into the game against Albania. Their defence was caught napping as Bajrami scored the Euros’ fastest goal in history. Italy, however, responded well, as a Bastoni header saw the Azzurri equalise in the 11th minute. Five minutes later, Nicolo Barella scored a stunner to turn the game around. After that, Italy was in sheer control of the game, restricting Albania to just one shot on target. Italy should have scored more goals on the day, but they did end up winning and getting 3 points.
Facts:
- Spain and Italy, in this game, have not set a record in terms of appearances against each other in major competitions. This is due to both nations’ 11th meeting in major competitions. Spain and Italy have met eight times in the Euros and three times in the World Cup. Spain and Italy have also faced each other in every edition of the Euros since 2008, with five consecutive meetings also being a record.
- Italy has had a very good record when it comes to facing Spain in the Euros and the World Cup. Without considering penalty shootouts, Italy have lost to Spain in playing time in just 1 of their 10 matches in major competitions. The defeat in the Euro 2012 final to Spain is their only loss to La Roja.
- Spain has always had a good record when they come face-to-face with the defending champions of the Euros. They have won each of their three games against the defending champions of the competition and also reached the finals in each of those editions. In 1964, they beat the Soviet Union. They beat West Germany in 1984 and Greece in 2008.
- Spain has enjoyed a brilliant run of form under current manager Luis de la Fuente. La Roja have lost just one of their last 11 games under the new manager. They have won nine and drawn one of those 11. Spain also goes into this tie against Italy after winning each of their last seven games in a row.
- Italy did end up losing to Spain in the UEFA Nations League quite recently, in June 2023. However, since then, the Azzurri have been in very good form. They have also lost only one out of their 12 games. Italy won eight and drew three games, with their only defeat coming to England in the Euro qualifiers.
Spain vs Italy: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the head-to-head record, England has done much better than Italy in recent games. In the last 7 games played between these two nations, Spain has won 3 games; 3 games ended in a draw, with Italy winning on just 1 occasion. These two teams last met in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League, with Spain getting the better of Italy. Yermi Pino scored in the 3rd minute of the game, with Ciro Immobile equalising from the spot to make it 1-1 in the 11th minute. Joselu became the eventual winner in the 88th minute as Spain progressed to the final.
Spain, as mentioned below, has become a highly transitional team under manager de la Fuente. The pace they have in the form of Yamal and Nico Williams is a breath of fresh air and terror for opponents. Spain has goals in them, but their main issue continues to be their defence. They could have conceded at least two goals on the day against Croatia, but luck favoured them.
If Italy can be more clinical and creative, they could have a good chance of getting something from this game. Past performances and results do give preference to Spain, and that is why we believe that they have a better chance of winning come Friday.
Spain vs Italy: predictions and betting tips
According to the bookmakers, Spain go into this game as minor odds-on favourites to beat Italy on Friday. Spain are minor odds favourites to win this game due to their last dominant performance against Croatia, which has now put them in the frame of being favourites to top group D. Italy, on the other hand, beat Albania, but their overall record against Spain makes them slight underdogs in terms of the bookies in this one.
Spain's attack was highly efficient against Croatia in their first game of the group. Over the years, Spain has loved to have control in games, but now they have changed to a transition-based team. Hence, their goal output has significantly increased. Spain scored three goals against Croatia, which is on par with their average goal-scoring tally of 3.1 goals this calendar year.
Italy have already managed to score two goals against Albania in their first game. The Azzurri are a team that generally tends to be very conservative in terms of their attack. They averaged 1.9 goals per game in their last 2 years of playing football, which is much lower than that of Spain.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We do not think this game will be a very high-scoring affair. Italy and Spain in the last couple of games have not seen many goals scored. 2-1 is the most common result between these two nations.
In terms of goals, we expect both teams to score a combined tally of under 3.5 goals. We do expect both Spain and Italy to score in this game. Spain, even though they kept a clean sheet, were lucky not to concede against Croatia, and we can see Italy scoring. Spain’s attack looks too good for Italy to keep a clean sheet here.
Spain is a team that is not prioritising possession any more. Italy has it in its DNA to play without the ball. Hence, we expect Spain to edge Italy when it comes to who will have more possession in this game. We can see Italy defending a little deeper and going back to their roots. Spain mustered a total of 11 shots on Croatia’s goal. Italy, defending deep, could see Spain try their luck from afar. We expect Spain to have 12 or more shots in this game.
For Spain, we continue to back Alvaro Morata to score come Friday. Morata has been in exceptional form for his national team. Morata took his goal against Croatia very well, and that shows the confidence he gets when he pulls on a Spain shirt. With that goal against Croatia, Morata now has 10 goals in his last 10 Euro and World Cup games combined. He is only three goals behind David Villa, who is their highest scorer in major competitions with 13 goals. We believe Morata can close that deficit on Friday against Italy.
Nicola Barella has been in fantastic scoring and assisting form for Italy in recent games. The Inter Milan midfielder has five goal involvements in his last seven games for Italy. Barella has 2 goals and 3 assists in that tally. Another good shout for Italy continues to be Gianluca Scamacca, who came close on many occasions to scoring against Albania. The attacker continues to remain a big threat in front of goal.
Final Prediction:Spain to beat Italy
Spain Player List
Goalkeepers:Unai Simon, David Raya, Alex Remiro
Defenders:Dani Carvajal, Jesus Navas, Aymeric Laporte, Robin Le Normand, Nacho, Dani Vivian, Alejandro Grimaldo, Marc Cucurella.
Midfielders:Rodri, Martin Zubimendi, Fabian, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Aleix Garcia, Fermin Lopez.
Attackers:Alvaro Morata, Joselu, Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, Ayoze Perez.
Spain Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Unai Simon |
Goalkeeper |
|
Dani Carvajal |
Defender |
|
Nacho |
Defender |
|
Robin Le Normand |
Defender |
|
Marc Cucurella |
Defender |
|
Pedri |
Midfielder |
|
Rodri |
Midfielder |
|
Fabian Ruiz |
Midfielder |
|
Lamine Yamal |
Attacker |
|
Alvaro Morata |
Attacker |
|
Nico Williams |
Attacker |
Spain Team Form(Last five games): W, W, W, D, L
Italy Player List
Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alex Meret, Ivan Provedel, Guglielmo Vicario
Defenders: Alessandro Bastoni, Raoul Bellanova, Alessandro Buongiorno, Riccardo Calafiori, Andrea Cambiaso, Matteo Darmian, Giovanni di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Gianluca Mancini, Federico Gatti
Midfielders:Nicolo Barella, Bryan Cristante, Nicolo Fagioli, Michael Folorunsho, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini
Forwards:Federico Chiesa, Stephan El Shaarawy, Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui, Gianluca Scamacca, Mattia Zaccagni
Italy Playing XI
|
Player |
Role |
|
Gianluigi Donnarumma |
Goalkeeper |
|
Matteo Darmian |
Defender |
|
Alessandro Bastoni |
Defender |
|
Alessandro Buongiorno |
Defender |
|
Raoul Bellanova |
Defender |
|
Federico Dimarco |
Defender |
|
Jorginho |
Midfielder |
|
Nicolo Barella |
Midfielder |
|
Davide Frattesi |
Attacker |
|
Federico Chiesa |
Attacker |
|
Gianluca Scamacca |
Attacker |
Italy Team Form(Last five games): W, W, D, W, W
Spain vs Italy Head-To-Head
Matches Played:22
Spain wins:14
Italy wins:10
Matches are drawn:12
Spain vs Italy Betting Odds
Spain to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.16.
Italy to win the match (PARIMATCH): 3.88.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.24.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Spain
Spain, on the other hand, has had the last laugh against Italy on many occasions over the last couple of years. Spain themselves have been transformative under their new manager, and their win against Croatia has now suddenly put them in a position to go deep in the competition. Spain has found a way of getting the job done whenever they have faced Italy in recent games, and that is why we will back them to win this game at the Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen.
Parimatch