Turkey vs Portugal Match Prediction
European Championship
Signal Iduna Park
Portugal faced a lot of challenges in their game to beat Czechia. They could not beat the low block in the first half, and it got worse as in the second half, Czechia took the lead. Portugal responded quickly and got a goal back thanks to the keeper parrying the ball onto Hranac’s foot, which went in as an own goal. Portugal won the game, but Jota’s goal was ruled out due to Ronaldo being offside. The winner came as two subs in Neto and Conceicao combined, with the latter lashing the ball past the Czechia keeper for the win.
Facts:
- Portugal and Turkey have had their fair share of battles in the Euros over the years. Saturday’s game between the two nations is set to be their fourth meeting in Europe’s elite competition. Portugal in the last 3 games has dominated Turkey by winning all of the games. They have scored a total of five goals in the three games they have played in 1996, 2000, and 2008 and have not conceded a single goal.
- Turkey goes into this game on the back of an impressive win against Georgia in their opener. In their entire football history, Turkey has never won their first two games of a major tournament, which includes the Euros and the World Cup. On Saturday, they had the chance to create a new record, and they do beat Portugal.
- Portugal in the group stages has done quite well in recent games. Martinez’s men do not tend to lose many games earlier on in the tournament. They have lost just one of their last nine games in the group stages, drawing four and winning four. The loss came to Germany in the 2021 season. That was one of their only two losses ever in the group stage of the Euros when they lost to Switzerland in Euro 2008.
- Turkey could equal their best performance ever in the Euros if they win either of their last two games against Portugal or the Czech Republic. Turkey’s best performance in the Euros was in 2008 when they won two games. Their best performance, however, in a major tournament came in the 2002 FIFA World Cup, where they ended up winning four games in total.
Turkey vs Portugal: Chance of Winning
When it comes to the head-to-head record, Portugal has outrightly dominated Turkey in most games. In the last nine fixtures played between these two teams in all competitions, Portugal has won seven times; no games have ended in a draw, with Turkey winning just two friendly games. Turkey’s wins against Portugal came in 1955 and most recently in 2012. Nani scored for Portugal on the day, with Pepe scoring his own goal alongside a brace from Umut Bulut for Turkey.
Turkey produced a very good performance against Georgia in their first game. Attacking wisely, they were flawless as they kept creating chance after chance. That did leave their defence open at times, with Georgia failing to capitalise. The risk in this game is whether they play expansively or defensively. Playing expansively would hurt them considering how good Portugal is with the likes of Ronaldo, Bruno, and Bernardo. Going defensive could help them, as Portugal did struggle to break down Czechia.
However, it remains to be seen if Turkey has the discipline to keep their backline compact, as that is not an easy task. Their defensive data also does not back them to keep Portugal out, and that is why we believe that Ronaldo and Co. have a better chance of winning this game on Saturday.
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Turkey vs Portugal: Predictions and Betting Tips
According to the bookmakers, Portugal goes into this game as big odds-on favourites to beat Turkey on Saturday. Both nations have started off their Euro campaign off with wins, but Portugal has the blessings of the oddsmakers due to them being one of the favourites to win the tournament. The individuals they possess in that squad make them favourites going into most games in this tournament.
Portugal were not at their best in their first game against the Czech Republic. Portugal’s goals came through half chances as they failed to break down Czechia’s defence in most spells of the game. Portugal, as per their standard, had an average expected goal ratio in this game. They had a 1.85 xG, in which they scored two goals on the night, showing they did not create that much. Portugal overall, as a team, tends to be quite expansive in their attacking play, registering an average of 2.7 goals per game in 2024. However, in the first game, we could not see that attacking output.
Turkey has been one of the most attacking teams in match week one of the Euros. The Turkish attack registered an expected goal ratio of 3.01 against Georgia, in which they also scored three goals, showing how clinical they are in front of goal. In 2024, they will have averaged 1.6 goals per game.
Based on these numbers and past fixtures taken into account, here are our tips and predictions for this game. We believe that this game will have goals. Both nations do need to win this game, as it will nearly assure them a top spot in the group, potentially leading them to an easier opponent in the knockout stages. We can see both teams going for this.
In terms of goals, we expect both teams to score a combined tally of three or more goals. We also expect both Portugal and Turkey to score in this game. In the first game, Portugal and Turkey both looked suspect at the back. None of the teams have had good defensive records going into this competition. Turkey will have a 30% clean sheet record and Portugal a 40% ratio in 2024. Hence, we expect both teams to concede.
We expect Portugal to win this game by a goal margin. We do not see them dominating in this game. Portugal, however, should score two or more goals in this game. Martinez’s men averaged 2.7 goals in 2024, and in their worst attacking performance, they were able to get 2 goals.
In terms of scoring for Portugal, we will continue to back Cristiano Ronaldo, even though he does not have that good of a record against Turkey. Ronaldo also goes into this game having failed to score against Czechia. Ronaldo, with all his goal-scoring prowess in his career, has never been able to score a single goal against Turkey in the three matches he has played against them. Against only Albania, he has failed to score in more games with four than he has against Turkey. We back Ronaldo to score because of how well he has done in the Euros and how close he came to scoring against Czechia.
Turkey, with their xG of 3 and 22 shots taken, was the highest amongst all of the teams in match week one of the Euros. We back Turkey to test the Portuguese defence, especially on the counterattack. Our prediction for this game is for Turkey to have over nine shots on Portugal’s goal. Turkey in 2024 will average 12.6 shots per game.
Final prediction:Portugal will beat Turkey.
Turkey Player List
Goalkeepers: Mert Gunok, Ugurcan Cakir, Altay Bayindir
Defenders:Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Mert Muldur, Ferdi Kadioglu, Abdulkerim Bardakci, Samet Akaydin, Ahmetcan Kaplan
Midfielders:Hakan Calhanoglu, Kaan Ayhan, Okay Yokuslu, Orkun Kokcu, Salih Ozcan, Ismail Yuksek, Arda Guler
Forwards:Cenk Tosun, Irfan Kahveci, Kerem Akturkoglu, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Yunus Akgun, Kenan Yildiz, Bertug Yildirim, Semih Kilicsoy, Yusuf Yazıcı
Turkey Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Mert Gunok |
Goalkeeper |
Kaan Ayhan |
Defender |
Merih Demiral |
Defender |
Ferdi Kadioglu |
Defender |
Abdulkerim Bardakci |
Defender |
Salih Ozcan |
Midfielder |
Hakan Calhanoglu |
Midfielder |
Arda Guler |
Midfielder |
Kenan Yildiz |
Attacker |
Kerem Akturkoglu |
Attacker |
Baris Alper Yilmaz |
Attacker |
Turkey Team Form(Last five games): W, L, D, L, L
Portugal Player List
Goalkeepers: Diogo Costa, Jose Sa, Rui Patricio
Defenders:Antonio Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Goncalo Inacio, Joao Cancelo, Nelson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Ruben Dias
Midfielders:Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Joao Palhinha, Otavio Monteiro, Ruben Neves, Vitinha
Forwards:Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceicao, Goncalo Ramos, Joao Felix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leao
Portugal Playing XI
Player |
Role |
Diogo Costa |
Goalkeeper |
Diogo Dalot |
Defender |
Ruben Dias |
Defender |
Pepe |
Defender |
Joao Cancelo |
Defender |
Joao Palhinha |
Midfielder |
Vitinha |
Midfielder |
Bruno Fernandes |
Midfielder |
Bernardo Silva |
Attacker |
Cristiano Ronaldo |
Attacker |
Rafael Leao |
Attacker |
Portugal Team Form(Last five games): W, W, L, W, L
Turkey vs Portugal Head-To-Head
Matches Played:9
Turkey wins:2
Portugal wins:7
Matches are drawn:0
Turkey vs Portugal Betting Odds
Turkey to win the match (PARIMATCH): 5.83.
Portugal to win the match (PARIMATCH): 1.59.
Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 4.27.
The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Portugal
Portugal struggled to break down a low block, and Turkey should have conceded at the end against Georgia, so there have been some negatives for both teams as well. Portugal themselves were strong defensively, and that is what we believe is the difference between these two teams. Georgia did give Turkey some problems, and Portugal had a much better attack than Georgia, putting them in a very strong position. A lot of pressure will rest on the Turkish defence, and hence we believe that Portugal will win this game at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. Our prediction for this game is a 3-1 Portugal win against Turkey.
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