Qualification scenarios : How your favourite team can reach the semi-final

ByArun S Kaimal, SportsCafe Editor

03/25/2016

New Zealand have already secured their place in the last four of the World T20 after three consecutive wins, but seven teams still remain in the hunt for the last three spots in the semis. With a lot of permutations and combinations on offer, here is how your favourite team can enter the last four.

Group 1

1. West Indies (Points 4, NRR - +.893)

Two wins in two matches have put the Windies on the top of the group almost assuring them of a place in the last four. With games against South Africa and Afghanistan coming up, the Calypso Kings look the best bet from Group 1.

How they can qualify

A. Win the remaining matches against South Africa and Afghanistan to enter the semis as the table-toppers.

B. If they beat South Africa on Friday, they will still be through as only one of England, Sri Lanka or the Proteas will be able to make it to six points. The Windies can then afford to lose their last match against Afghanistan and still go through.

C. If they lose to South Africa, things could become a bit tricky for Darren Sammy & co. forcing them into a three-way tie with South Africa and England. The Net Run Rate (NRR) will come into play then, but they are still in a very good position in NRR and with a winnable game against Afghanistan in hand.

D. If they lose both matches, they will have to depend on other results to make their way to the last four.

Prediction: West Indies is sure to enter the last four with them having a match against Afghanistan in hand, unless they go out of their way to mess it up.

2. England (Points 4, NRR - +.018)

Although they lost their first match against West Indies on the back of a Gayle storm, England are back in the game after two wins against South Africa and Afghanistan. With a game against defending champions Sri Lanka in hand, England are in a better position than the Proteas.

How they can qualify

A. Win the match against Sri Lanka by a big margin. Even then, they could get knocked out if West Indies and South Africa have better NRRs in the case of a three-way tie.

B. If they lose to Sri Lanka, their qualification is as good as over with West Indies and South Africa likely to pick up more points in their games. They could still hope against hope for the Windies to lose their last two matches and the Proteas beating West Indies and losing to Sri Lanka. Although it is highly unlikely to happen, a four-way tie will come into play in that scenario, and the two top teams will go through based on NRR.

Prediction: The match against defending champions Sri Lanka at a slow and low pitch at the Feroz Shah Kotla in Delhi is likely to be a tough task for England, and they will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to make it.

3. South Africa (Points 2, NRR - +.816)

Despite their shock loss against England in the first match, the Proteas are still in the hunt after a 64-run win against Afghanistan. Their NRR is in the positive, and they have two games in hand to qualify for the last four.

How they can qualify

A. If they win against West Indies and Sri Lanka, the Proteas could find themselves in a three-way tie at the top of the table with West Indies and England. With them having a good NRR, they could make it to the last four.

B. If South Africa beat West Indies, but lose to Sri Lanka, they can only qualify based on NRR if Windies lose against Afghanistan, and England against Sri Lanka.

C. If they lose to West Indies and beat Sri Lanka, South Africa could get knocked out if England beat Sri Lanka.

D. If they lose both games, they will get eliminated.

Prediction: Unless they “choke” in the last two games, South Africa can make it to the last four with two back-to-back victories.

4. Sri Lanka (Points 2, NRR - minus.171)

The defending champions have played two matches winning the one against minnows Afghanistan. With their NRR in the negative and matches against South Africa and England coming up, they will find it tough to make it to the last four.

How they can qualify

A. Win both matches against England and South Africa and storm into the semis

B. If they beat England and lose to the Proteas, they will have to rely on West Indies and NRR to make it.

C. If they lose to England and beat South Africa, they will have to rely on Afghanistan beating West Indies and South Africa beating West Indies. Even it happens, NRR will decide the winner in a three-way tie.

D. If they lose both games, they will be eliminated.

Prediction: The defending champions are unlikely to make it the last four.

5. Afghanistan are eliminated after three defeats

Group 2

1. New Zealand are already in the semi-final after three wins in a row.

2. India (Points 4, NRR - minus.546)

The pre-tournament favorites have been on an indifferent run in the tournament, losing the opening match against New Zealand before storming back with wins against neighbours Pakistan and Bangladesh. But, their NRR is in the negative after that last-ball win.

How they can qualify

A. Beat Australia and enter the last four as the second-placed team in Group 2 with the Kiwis likely to beat Bangladesh in their last match.

B. If they lose to Australia and Australia win against Pakistan, the hosts will get eliminated.

C. If they lose to Australia and Pakistan beat Australia, NRR will come into play, and the hosts are unlikely to go through in such a scenario.

Prediction: India will enter the last four after beating Australia at Mohali on Sunday.

3. Pakistan (Points 2, NRR - +.254)

Although they started the tournament with a win against Bangladesh, two defeats in a row against arch-rivals India and New Zealand have put them on the verge of an exit. They have only one must-win match against Australia.

How they can qualify

A. Beat Australia and hope that Australia will beat India. This could lead to a three-way tie, but with a better NRR than the other two, Pakistan could make it.

B. If they lose to Australia, they will get eliminated.

Prediction: With India looking the favourites against Australia, Pakistan’s hopes are as good as over.

4. Australia (Points 2, NRR - +.108)

The Aussies have continued their trend of poor performance in the World T20 and are in a difficult position after two games, with just one win. But, with games against Pakistan and India in hand, they get to decide their own fate.

How they can qualify

A. If they beat Pakistan and India, they will qualify as the second team with six points.

B. If they beat Pakistan and lose to India, they will get eliminated with India reaching six points.

C. If they lose to Pakistan and beat India, NRR will come into play with all three teams tied at two wins each. Pakistan are the favourites to go through if the scenario arises, with them having a better NRR.

D. If they lose both, they will get eliminated.

5. Bangladesh – eliminated, after three defeats

(Take a look at how Twitter reacted to India's win)