Relegation drama and the battle for Europe: How the Premier League’s final day could pan out

Twenty teams, ten games, and everything takes place at the same time. It’s shaping up to be the greatest Sunday of the 2019/20 Premier League season and after the coronavirus put a halt to things, it’s shaping up to be a great end. Thanks to Manchester City beating Watford heavily over the week and Aston Villa beating Arsenal, it means that there are still two relegation spots to be fought over. They’re currently occupied by Watford and Bournemouth although just three points separate the duo with only goal difference separating 18th place Watford and 17th placed Aston Villa.

With only one team capable of surviving, it means that two of Aston Villa, Watford and Bournemouth will be playing Championship football next term. Here’s how.

Dean Smith and his men will need to beat West Ham and hope that Watford doesn't beat Arsenal. But Villa could also stay up should they beat West Ham and Watford win but only if the Hornets, in that scenario, don’t win by a two-goal margin. Or, and this is an improbable scenario, Villa could go down if the 17th and 18th placed teams match each other’s goals difference and goals scored record because Watford scored an away goal against Aston Villa.

According to the Premier League's rules, in case the points between two sides are level then the tiebreaker will be goal difference, then goals scored and then the points won in head-to-head games. But if Villa win by a 1-0 margin and Watford win by a 7-5 margin, then the goal difference and goals scored would be the same. And since the points won in head-to-head games are also the same, it would mean that Watford's away goal that they scored in the head-to-head game will keep them up.

For Watford (18th) to survive

The simplest way for the Hornets to survive is if Watford beat Arsenal and Villa either lose or draw to West Ham. The more complicated method is if the Hornets lose, they could survive should Bournemouth simply lose and should Villa lose by a two-goal greater margin than the Hornets. That would mean that a 1-0 Watford loss could see them survive if Villa loses 3-0 and so on.

For Bournemouth (19th) to survive

There’s nothing complicated about this. That loss to Southampton in Gameweek 37+ will mean that Bournemouth needs to win at Everton and hope that both Aston Villa and Watford lose. It would see the Cherries surge into safety thanks to their better goal-difference as all three sides would then be on 34 points. Anything but a win, sees Bournemouth play Championship football next term.

Leicester City’s lacklustre form since the restart has meant that their once rumoured to be confirmed place in the top four has now gone to a mere possibility. However, with only a point separating them and Chelsea and Manchester United, they’ve got a chance. Goal difference will also play a key part with both Manchester United and the Foxes level on that regard with Chelsea well behind the duo. Here's how that could play out.

Also, England will get five Champions League places only if either Chelsea or Manchester United win either the Champions League or the Europa League and finish outside the top four. IF they win their respective tournaments and finish inside the top four, there will be no extra spot and since one out of the two sides are guaranteed a place inside the top four, any other permutation doesn't matter.

The Red Devils enter the final day of the 2019/20 Premier League in third place thanks to a better goal-difference over Chelsea and them being one point clear of Leicester City. And since Manchester United play Leicester on the final day, a win or a draw will ensure them a top four finish. They can also qualify if the Foxes beat them and if Wolverhampton Wanderers beat Chelsea but only if the difference in goal-difference between the Red Devils and the Blues is maintained.

However, it’s not the end of the world if they do lose and Chelsea beats Wolves, which will see Manchester United finish outside the top four, because winning the Europa League will see Manchester United play Champions League football next season.

Chelsea, like Manchester United, have three ways to finish in the top four. Their first, and their easiest way, would be to either beat or draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers. That would give the 66 or 64 points respectively and ensure their place in the top four. Their second way will turn them into Manchester United fans because even if Wolves beat the Blues, then should Manchester United beat Leicester City it would ensure that Chelsea finishes in the top four.

Their third and final, and hardest way, is to qualify for next season’s Champions League by winning this season’s Champions League. But given that they face Bayern Munich and have three away goals against them going into their Round of 16 second-leg, the odds are against them.

Much like Bournemouth, a defeat earns Leicester nothing more than Europa League football. But should they beat Manchester United then their top-four spot is sealed, while a draw will force them to root for Wolverhampton Wanderers. That effectively means that should Chelsea lose to Wolves, then the Foxes’ better goal difference will see them clamber into the top four.

The Europa League Scenarios:

For Wolverhampton Wanderers (6th) to finish in the top six;

A win over Chelsea will ensure that Wolverhampton Wanderers finish in a Europa League spot but a loss to the Blues on the final day will see them finish seventh. However, if the latter does happen then Wolves could qualify if Chelsea beat Arsenal in the FA Cup final. Because if the FA Cup winners finish amongst the top six, then seventh place in the Premier League qualifies for the Europa League.

For Tottenham Hotspur (7th) to finish in the top six;

Tottenham are guaranteed at least a seventh-place finish but to ensure their future, the North London side will need Wolves to drop points to finish above them. IF the Molineux side does lose, then a point against Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace would be enough for Spurs. However, if they do finish in seventh then Tottenham will need Chelsea to win the FA Cup and not Arsenal for them to get Europa League football.