‌WTC 2023-25 | Key scenarios for India to qualify for WTC Final 

With 16 Tests to go in the ensuing event and some intriguing clashes on the cards, there are many interesting scenarios that we may come across as the competition progresses. Amongst the teams still in contention, England are slated to play three Tests in New Zealand, South Africa shall host Pakistan and Sri Lanka for two Tests each, before the latter play two Tests at home against Australia to conclude the current WTC cycle.

Matches Left: 5

Current Position: 2nd

Series Left: five-match Border Gavaskar Trophy in Australia 

India will comfortably make it to the WTC Finals without depending on external circumstances. 

If India wins four matches and draws one [4-0]:

If India wins four matches and loses one [4-1]:

A loss or draw for New Zealand in their three-match home series against England would be enough to secure qualification. Even if the Kiwis clean sweep the English, a split result in the SA-SL series would ensure Indian qualification given both teams need perfect or near-perfect results to overtake India in the standings.

This scenario will play out exactly like the previous one, barring a slight difference: instead of the Proteas needing to win all four of their remaining encounters, even three wins and a draw would take them above India.    

If India wins three, loses one, and draws one against Australia [3-1]:

If India wins three and loses two Tests against Australia [3-2]:

For the first time in the scenarios discussed so far, Australia find themselves still in the race for a finals spot. However, the Kangaroos would need an improbable 2-0 win in Sri Lanka to finish over India. The good news is such a result would eliminate the Lions from contention, since they need to win at least two of their four fixtures while avoiding defeats -- unlike the Proteas who need to win at least three. As for New Zealand, a 2-0 or a 3-0 result against England would take them past India's tally. Meaning, a split result in the SL-AUS and SA-SL series would augur well for India, unless South Africa win both games against Pakistan and the Kiwis manage to thrash England 2-0 or better.

The worse the series margin, the more complex the scenario as the Men in Blue will have to wait for numerous results to go their way. Firstly, England should deny New Zealand two wins in their three-match contest. Secondly, Sri Lanka must not allow an Australian clean sweep at home. Thirdly, South Africa and Sri Lanka either need to keep their win tally under two or endure at least one defeat if they win two games -- three or four wins would take defeats out of the equation.

All these scenarios would keep the respective teams below India in the WTC table, meaning only three of the four teams need to follow the chartered course. The best case scenario would be England win the series against the Kiwis since New Zealand are the only team not playing one of the contenders. Should it happen, split results in the SL-AUS and SA-SL series would secure Indian qualification.

In this case, the New Zealand versus England plays a crucial factor yet again. The Three Lions need to deny Kiwis victory twice away from home to keep India firmly in contention. Even then, a solitary Test match win for Australia in the subcontinent and a Proteas clean sweep of Sri Lanka would practically eliminate the Men in Blue.

This scenario is particularly troubling since a Sri Lankan series win in South Africa is unlikely. As long as the Proteas win two of their four matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively while losing no more than one, they'll go through. In that case, a 1-0 series victory for either of Australia or Sri Lanka would be enough to push India outside the top two, unless the Lankans endured a whitewash in Africa. This is ofcourse while considering the Kiwis fail to win two Tests against England.

Such a result would spell doom for India since it ensures Australia finish above them in the table, even if they end up getting clean swept in Sri Lanka. That means the results in the remaining fixtures must be such that all of New Zealand, South Africa, and the Lions end up with a lower points percentage than the Men in Blue.

The Kiwis can accomplish that by failing to win two games against England. The demand is the simplest for Sri Lanka, who just need to win any two of their four games against the Proteas and Aussies respectively. Even a win and three draws would be enough, though it is extremely unlikely. Similarly, South Africa just need to win two games but also ensure they lose no more than one.

If India wins one game and loses two [1-2]:

Once again, Australia will be above India in the league table irrespective of what conspires in Sri Lanka. Shall New Zealand win a Test against England and avoid two defeats, India will already be eliminated. Even if by some happenstance England do pip the Kiwis, a couple wins for either the Proteas or the Lankan Lions would be enough to bid India farewell. 

Similar to the above scenario, New Zealand would require a win and a draw to jump over the Rohit Sharma-led unit in the table. South Africa would require one win and three drawn affairs while Sri Lanka would need a victory and a couple of draws to overtake India. Australia would stay over India in all likelihood. 

(It is worth noting that India will face elimination beyond these scenarios and the case of over rate penalties has not been considered in the following calculations.)