Arsenal, Liverpool or United? A complete analysis of the top-4 race in the Premier League
€1.3bn! That is the amount shared among the European clubs who took part in the Champions League this season. Forget the money, it is the glory and the sheer attraction of the League that keeps most European circuits alive until the last day of the domestic campaign.
The Premier League is already done and
GW 28 | GW 29 | GW 30 | GW 31 | GW 32 | GW 33 | GW 34 | GW 35 | GW 36 | GW 37 | GW 38 | Games in hand | Points tally from Games | Final points tally | |
Manchester City | Liverpool (H) | Arsenal (A) | Chelsea (A) | Hull City (H) | Southampton (A) | West Brom (H) | Middlesbrough (A) | Palace (H) | Leicester (H) | Watford (A) | United (H) | |||
Predicted result | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 78 | |
Tottenham Hotspur | Palace (A) | Southampton (H) | Burnley (A) | Swansea (A) | Watford (H) | Bournemouth (H) | Leicester (A) | Arsenal (H) | West Ham (A) | Man United (H) | Hull (A) | N/A | ||
Predicted result | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | N/A | 27 | 83 |
Liverpool | Burnley (H) | Man City (A) | Everton (H) | Bournemouth (H) | Stoke (A) | West Brom (A) | Palace (H) | Watford (A) | Southampton (A) | West Ham (A) | Middlesbrough (H) | N/A | ||
Predicted result | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | N/A | 24 | 76 |
Arsenal | Leicester (H) | West Brom (A) | Man City (H) | West Ham (H) | Palace (A) | Middlesbrough (A) | Sunderland (H) | Spurs (A) | Man United (H) | Stoke (A) | Everton (H) | Southampton (A) | ||
Predicted result | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 74 |
Manchester United | Southampton (H) | Middlesbrough (A) | West Brom (H) | Everton (H) | Sunderland (A) | Chelsea (H) | Burnley (A) | Swansea (H) | Arsenal (A) | Spurs (A) | Palace (H) | Man City (A) | ||
Predicted result | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 73 |
Tottenham Hotspur - Played 27, Points 56
What a ride they had last year! It was only their inexplicable meltdown in the final straight that saw them go from title contenders to finishing below Arsenal yet AGAIN. Most people expected them to compete with the big boys this season as well, but there were hardly any supporters who expected them to be second at the beginning of March. However, the London club has surpassed all expectations having actually improved on last season's results and are two points better off than they were in 2016.
Spurs are 10 points off Chelsea and still have 11 games to play. Being knocked out of continental competitions might just help their cause. On the injury front, they appear to be in decent shape with just Erik Lamela out for a considerable time. Form-wise, Harry Kane has just hit top gear and is only one goal away from becoming the second Englishman to score 20+ goals in three consecutive seasons.
Opponents | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | Reverse Fixture |
Leicester (A) | N/A | N/A | 1 – 2 | 1 – 1 | 1 – 1 |
Arsenal (H) | 2 – 1 | 0 – 1 | 2 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 1 – 1 |
West Ham (A) | 2 – 3 | 2 – 0 | 0 – 1 | 1 – 0 | 3 – 2 |
Man United (H) | 1 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 0 – 0 | 3 – 0 | 1 – 0 |
Realistically, Spurs should win six of their remaining 11 games quite easily. Their first major "roadblock" would be a trip to Turf Moor to face a resilient Burnley team that has lost only three matches at home. Additionally, Spurs don't have a great record on the road winning just four out of their 13 matches so far. They also have tough trips to a resurgent Leicester and West Ham pending and would have to do really well to get all six points from those games.
Their main test would come against direct rivals Arsenal and Man United in a span of two weeks that could very well decide where they would end up at the end of the season. The good news is that both these games are at the Lane where they have dropped only two points all season.
Final Points Tally - 83
Final position - 2nd
Manchester City - Played 27, Points 56
The Catalan Messiah's first attempt at the Premier league title has not panned out as most people thought it would. Pep Guardiola started the campaign with ten wins on the spin and the Citizens would have you believe that they were going to turn into Barcelona come December. However, they are now 10 points behind the leaders and even though City look the most likely to challenge Chelsea (if that is even possible), even Guardiola would have to accept that it might just be a step too far this season.
City
Opponents | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | Reverse Fixture |
Liverpool (H) | 2 – 2 | 2 – 1 | 3 – 1 | 1 – 4 | 1 – 0 |
Arsenal (A) | 0 – 2 | 1 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 2 – 1 | 2 – 1 |
Chelsea (A) | 0 – 0 | 2 – 1 | 1 – 1 | 0 – 3 | 1 – 3 |
Southampton (A) | 3 – 1 | 1 – 1 | 0 – 3 | 4 – 2 | 1 – 1 |
Leicester (H) | N/A | N/A | 2 – 0 | 1 – 3 | 4 – 2 |
United (H) | 2 – 3 | 4 – 1 | 1 – 0 | 0 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
City
City
Final Points Tally - 78
Final position - 3rd
Liverpool - Played 27, Points 52
The biggest enigma in English football right now. The current Liverpool team are like Schrodinger's cat - you don't know what team will show till the match starts. The Merseyside club will lose to strugglers Hull City one week, convincingly beat Spurs the next and lose to Leicester in the very next game. Until January, they were within a game of Chelsea but have won just one match in the first month of 2017.
Liverpool
Even though the Merseyside club have done better this season - 14 points more than they had at this point last season - it is their struggles against the "minnows" that has seen them join this fight rather than the one with Chelsea. Their biggest advantage is their lack of other commitments, and as
Opponents | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | Reverse Fixture |
Man City (A) | 2 – 2 | 2 – 1 | 3 – 1 | 1 – 4 | 1 – 0 |
Stoke (A) | 3 – 1 | 3 – 5 | 6 – 1 | 0 – 1 | 4 – 1 |
West Brom (A) | 3 – 0 | 1 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 1 – 1 | 2 – 1 |
Palace (H) | N/A | 3 – 1 | 1 – 3 | 1 – 2 | 2 – 4 |
Southampton (A) | 3 – 1 | 0 – 3 | 0 – 2 | 3 – 2 | 0 – 0 |
West Ham (A) | 2 – 3 | 1 – 2 | 3 – 1 | 2 – 0 | 2 – 2 |
They just face one direct rival in their remaining games. That would normally be good news for any team, but not this Liverpool team who have defeated direct rivals only to succumb to the minnows. In the big games, they now just have to travel to City - a ground where they don't have a great record. Following the Merseyside Derby, a fixture they have dominated over the years, their biggest challenge will be posted by Stoke (A), West Brom (A), and Palace (H). Liverpool
Final Points Tally - 76
Final position - FOURTH
Arsenal - Played 26, Points 50
Some things in life are constant. The sun rising from the east, seasons changing and Arsenal imploding midway through the season. The Gunners are one point worse than they were at this point last season but there is a massive difference in the two sides. Last year, the team was showing some grit and determination to get into the top-4 and stop Spurs from finishing above them for the first time since 1995. This time, however, Wenger is under immense pressure.
Arsenal
Opponents | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | Reverse Fixture |
Manchester City (H) | 1 – 1 | 1 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 2 – 1 | 2 – 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur (A) | 2 – 1 | 0 – 1 | 2 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 1 – 1 |
Manchester United (H) | 1 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 1 - 2 | 3 – 0 | 1 – 1 |
Stoke City (A) | 0 – 0 | 1 – 0 | 3 – 2 | 0 - 0 | 3 – 1 |
Subsequently, Arsenal
Arsenal's biggest problems, in recent years, has been their struggles against the big teams so they are safe in that regard and Wenger's experience is going to be key if they are to qualify for the Champions League for a 19th consecutive season. The biggest question right now, however, is if the Frenchman still has control of the dressing room and Alexis Sanchez.
Final Points Tally - 74
Final position - 5th
Manchester United - Played 26, Points 49
If this season has any clear indication, it is this - United are destined to finish SIXTH. With a win over Swansea, early November, United managed to secure the sixth spot, and four months and eight wins later, they are still there.
United have not lost a league game since October but they have failed to win games in which they outplayed their opponents. They have already secured the first piece of silverware this season and are still very much alive in the FA Cup, Europa League and the race for a top-4 spot. The depth they possess is worthy of envy from any team in the world so squad rotation should not be an issue, but the question is whether they can actually close the deal on all fronts.
United are still to play four teams that are currently above them in the table and three of those fixtures are away from Old Trafford. The game at home is against an unstoppable Chelsea side that beat United 4-0 at the Bridge. Apart from these four massive games, United have to host West Brom at home, a fixture in which they have a 50% success rate in the last four seasons, and Burnley at Turf Moor, who are virtually unbeatable at home. United have their work cut out for them and it is going to take one hell of an effort to get into the top-4 this season, even with Jose Mourinho at the helm.
Opponents | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | Reverse Fixture |
West Bromwich Albion (H) | 2 – 0 | 1 – 2 | 0 – 1 | 2 – 0 | 0 – 2 |
Chelsea (H) | 0 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 1 – 1 | 0 - 0 | 0 – 4 |
Burnley (A) | N/A | N/A | 0 – 0 | N/A | 1 – 1 |
Arsenal (A) | 1 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 1 - 2 | 3 – 0 | 1 – 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur (A) | 1 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 0 – 0 | 3 – 0 | 1 – 0 |
Manchester City (A) | 2 – 3 | 4 – 1 | 1 – 0 | 0 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
However, they do have a lifeline for the Champions League next season as they look strong contenders in a weakened Europa League field this year.
Final Points Tally - 73
Final position - SIXTH
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