2021/22 Premier League | England’s five club Champions League battle will go down to the wire

Welcome to the Premier League, the greatest and most marketable football league in the world because it has arguably the two best teams in Europe plying their trade. It’s where physical, tough-tackling footballers are born and where style and panache comes to die, although sometimes that moment of magic can be the difference between Europe and no Europe. Five teams, one Champions League spot, two Europa League spots, and one Europa Conference League spot. There is also a potential Europa League final for one.

The European scenarios:

4th: Arsenal – 60 points (33 games) GD +12 | GF 52 | GA 40

——————————————————–————————— (Champions League cut off)

6th: Manchester United – 55 points (35 games) GD +2 | GF 54 | GA 52

——————————————————–————————— (Europa League cut-off)

——————————————————–————————— (Europa Conference League cut-off)

8th: Wolves – 49 points (33 games) GD +4 | GF 33 | GA 29

Well, the Blues will finish in a Champions League place even with their recent blip in form because thanks to their 65 points total, so far, they’ll need to lose all six games left and need other factors to go their way to drop out. That includes either Tottenham or Manchester United winning their remaining games although even one more win puts it beyond the Red Devils despite their draw during the mid-week fixture against the same side. 

Nine more points from the remaining five games and that puts it beyond both Tottenham and United which is why Thomas Tuchel’s side are nailed on to finish in the top four. Well not completely but more like a 99% nailed on to finish in the top four.

Chances of finishing in the top four: A world class 99%

For Arsenal (4th) to finish in a Champions League place:

The emotional rollercoaster that Arsenal have put their fans through this season has been downright incredible with them even sitting in the relegation zone at one point. Then they improved on that and became the standout challengers for the last top-four place before losing three games in a row. Unhappy with that, Mikel Arteta’s side has now beaten both Chelsea and Manchester United in consecutive games which has placed them back in pole position for the final top-four spot.

It's been a weird up and down season but the supercomputer has predicted a 69 point season for the Gunners, which means at least three wins from their next five games. But, the game that will essentially decide things will be the North London derby. Tottenham sits two points behind and if both sides keep the same pace, then that game will be the decider although not really. Because, thanks to the way things sit, even if Arsenal do lose that game, then winning their remaining four games might give them a chance.

How? By scoring goals and not conceding as many, football is simple like that.

Games left: West Ham United (A), Leeds United (H), Tottenham (A), Newcastle United (A), Everton (H)

For Tottenham (5th) to finish in a Champions League place:

The winner of that particular game has the best chance of finishing in that final spot but even if Tottenham lose, much like Arsenal, then winning their final four games keeps them in with a shout. Now while that is dependent on Arsenal losing, at least, twice, Spurs also have to play Liverpool, Leicester City and Burnley which might just be a tougher run-in than many think. Not that Arsenal’s is any better with games against West Ham, Newcastle, Leeds United and Everton.

But that’s where Goal Difference and all that comes into play because since Spurs, at the moment, have the better GD (12 to 18), it might help them. They still have to better Arsenal’s results though although at this point, even one win vs one loss/draw might turn this race around.

Chances of finishing in the top four:  A not great 33%

For Manchester United (6th) to finish in a Champions League place:

With a deal for Erik ten Hag done, many expected a response from Manchester United but instead, the Reds flew away to a 4-0 win. That trend continued against Arsenal as the Londoners walked away with a 3-1 win. Combine that with a lack of creativity, a lack of confidence, a lot of defensive issues and just a lack of hope across the field, and it doesn’t give United a great chance of finishing inside the top four.

But still, with 55 points and three games left, they’re not completely out of the race although to leapfrog both Arsenal (six points ahead) and Tottenham (four points ahead), they’ll need something bordering a minor miracle. Winning all three games will give them 9 points for a 64-point finish which may be enough only if Arsenal and Tottenham lose their heads and don’t manage to win any of their last five games.

Games left: Brentford (H), Brighton and Hove Albion (A), Crystal Palace (A)

Chances of finishing in the top four: Less than 1%

Even with that loss to Chelsea on Sunday, West Ham are still shockingly in this race and that alone has stunned more than a few fans. But the Hammers will most definitely need something between a minor and major miracle to get there because they’ve got four games left and 52 points. It means that David Moyes will need his side to win every game left for a 64-point season and hope that everyone else disappears from the race.

It remains their best route to Europe’s top club competition but sometimes you never know, miracles do happen.

Games left: Arsenal (H), Norwich (A), Manchester City (H), Brighton and Hove Albion (A)

For Wolverhampton Wanderers (8th) to finish in a Champions League place:

Or you know, lose multiple games of football which might be the easier wish to grant. But while Lage’s team have been a defensive behemoth this season with only Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool conceding fewer, they’ve struggled to score goals. Just 33 goals, in as many games, makes them the fourth-lowest scoring team this season and their run-in doesn’t make their task any easier. Games against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City, at a still to be decided date, are arguably about as tough as it gets.

It's also why they have the lowest chance of finishing fourth but, and this is a big one, they’re in with a great shout of making a Europa League or Europa Conference League place. To do that, they’ll have to win more and better West Ham’s results and/or win two games more and then better Manchester United’s results. That might be a tough task but it’s within their grasp and it would make for a lovely debut season prize for Lage.

Chances of finishing in the top four: Even less than West Ham’s even less than Manchester United’s less than 1% aka the least.