Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Match Prediction
PAK
60%
Chance of Winning
SRI
40%
Odi
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium
Facts
- Historically, Rawalpindi conditions favor the teams that chase. Average first innings scores are usually in the range of 240-260
- Pakistan beat SA 2-1 last week in their home conditions, with Abrar Ahmed, Saim Ayub, and Agha Salman proving to be anchors for the Pakistan team
- SL won their last ODI series 2-1 against Bangladesh, showcasing Kusal Mendis and Wanindu Hasaranga in good form
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Chance Of Winning
Clarity is setting in for the Pakistan players about their roles following their recent 2-1 win over the South Africans on home soil. Earlier this year, Pakistan chased their highest total of 352 runs against the Proteas. While they are facing issues with their top order, their middle order depth, and with momentum on their side, they are likely to be worthy competitors to the Sri Lankans. Asalanka’s Lions are also coming with a victory over Bangladesh in their most recent ODI series in their home country. Mendis’ 124 knock along with Fernando’s 3/33 spell in the decider of the Bangladesh series make these two players to watch out for.
The Rawalpindi conditions have favored the chasing side in recent years, and Pakistan have proven their chasing credentials time and again this year. Net-net with home ground advantage, momentum and chasing credentials - the win probability tilts towards Pakistan.
- Pakistan chance of winning - 60%
- Sri Lanka chance of winning - 40%
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction & Tips
For this one, Pakistan looks set to win. With the Rawalpindi batting-friendly conditions which work perfectly for their anchors and the new ball pace. Eyes will be on Naseem Shah, considering his ODI strike rate, and the early carry at the Pindi ground - he is the home side’s top bowler. Wanindu Hasaranga, who will also be captaining the side can prove to be a dangerous wicket taker in the middle overs as the surface slows down.
Look out for Babar Azam and Kusal Mendis as the most bankable run-getters for their respective teams. Pakistan banks on Azam to set the tempo for their batting innings, and he has shown promise on this ground, including the iconic 125 knock against Zimbabwe in 2020. Mendis is coming off a match-winning 125-run innings in the decider ODI against Bangladesh in Pellekele.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Match Toss Prediction
Rawalpindi conditions usually favor the chasing side, with a small edge for bowling first. In the last five ODIs held here, 3 were won by the chasing side. Two of them by Pakistan against New Zealand. Expect the toss winner to chase in this ground.
Weather Report
The weather is expected to remain cricket-friendly in Rawalpindi for the first ODI. Predictions are that it will remain sunny with almost zero chances of rain. Temperatures to remain in the mid 20 degrees through the day and to cool down to 18-20 degrees towards the evening.
Clear
No Rain
Warm
No WindClearNo RainWarmNo WindPakistan & Sri Lanka Player List
Playing
| First Team | Second Team |
|---|---|
Zaman Fakhar batsman | Nissanka Pathum batsman |
Ayub Saim batsman | Mishara Kamil batsman |
Azam Babar batsman | Mendis Kusal wicket keeper |
Salman Agha all rounder | Samarawickreme Sadheera wicket keeper |
Talat Hussain all rounder | Asalanka Charith batsman |
Nawaz Mohammad all rounder | Liyanage Janith batsman |
Ashraf Faheem all rounder | Mendis Kamindu all rounder |
Afridi Shaheen bowler | Hasaranga Wanindu all rounder |
Rauf Haris bowler | Chameera Dushmantha bowler |
Shah Naseem bowler |
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Team Form
Pakistan Team Form
Pakistan is going into this series after a mixed year. With their highest run chase in February of this year, and an ODI series victory just last week. They’ve also had a loss against the Windies in August 2025. Given their momentum, they appear to be in good form for this series.
Sri Lanka Team Form
Coming in on the back of a couple of series wins against Bangladesh and Australia in their home conditions, Sri Lankans have found solid leadership under Asalanka. Their strong white-ball run in similar conditions also puts them in good shape for this series.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Top Batters
Babar Azam to be Pakistan’s Top Batter
Azam’s home ODI average is 58.2 over the last five years with consistent results. He has been banked on at Rawalpindi to produce some match-winning knocks, including the 125 against Zimbabwe in 2020, and another 77 in the same series. Babar’s strength is to work the tempo of solid run chases in these conditions, positioning him perfectly to open the bat and play his natural game.
Kusal Mendis to be Sri Lanka’s Top Batter
After being named Player of the Series against Bangladesh with 225 runs - out of which there was a 125 run knock in the decider - Mendis is all set in form to take it to Pakistan’s gentlemen. He also played a solid 101 knock against Australia earlier this year.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Top Bowlers
Naseem Shah to be Pakistan’s Top Bowler
With conditions that support chases in the range of 240-260, Shah’s power play squeeze is going to be one to watch out for in this game. He’s got 55 wickets at an average of 24.78 and a strike rate of approximately 27. This also includes two five-wicket hauls in his ODI career.
Wanindu Hasaranga to be Sri Lanka’s Top Bowler
Hasaranga has a grip on the middle overs, and he has grown into it over this year. He topped the charts with 9 wickets in their home series against Bangladesh. This included him choking the opposition with a 4/10 with an economy of a 1.27. If the surface slows down, he is going to be one to watch out for.
Our Prediction
Favorites to win
Pakistan
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