ISL 2015: Three reasons why Goa will defeat Mumbai tonight

Prediction- FC Goa 2-1 Mumbai City FC

1. Goa's new formation is working well

Zico, the FC Goa manager, switched to a more adventurous 3-5-2 formation and it has worked well for the Gaurs. The change arrived after the 2-0 defeat against Mumbai last month, and since then they have remained unbeaten in their last three matches. Goa produced an eye-catching away performance against Chennaiyin FC (2-0 win), and followed that up with a 2-2 draw against Pune at the Balewadi Stadium.

After undergoing a phase where they struggled to score from open play, Goa have looked more potent since the change in tactics. The return of Lucio to the center of the defence has provided them the steel they were missing at the back, while the arrival of Rafael Coelho has boosted their attack. Playing in a five-man midfield has allowed Leo Moura more freedom, time and space on the ball.

Goa will outnumber Mumbai at the center of the park, and unless Nicolas Anelka changes his 4-4-2 formation, Moura will cause them a lot of trouble.

2. Mumbai's poor away record against Goa's reliable home form

Mumbai are yet to win an away game this season, in fact they have not won an away game since the inaugural season. In their bid to break a win-less streak of 11 away matches, Mumbai will face a team who have one of the best home records in the league.

The Fatorda Stadium has been a fortress for Goa, and they have faced just one defeat in their last 11 home games including last season. Both these records are unlikely to be altered tonight.

3. Goa boosted by return of Jofre and Reinaldo

Goa have suffered a lot of injuries this season and still have a long list of players unavailable due to fitness concerns. But the return of Jofre and Reinaldo will provide them with much-needed depth in attack. Rafael Coelho is injured and will not feature against Mumbai, but in Reinaldo they have an able replacement for the Brazilian.

Mumbai, on the other hand, will be boosted by the return of Sunil Chhetri into the starting line-up, but they will still be without Sony Norde and Frantz Bertin, who are away on international duty. The Blue Devils missed Norde's presence on the left wing in their last game, and with Goa playing with full-backs in the 5-3-2 formation, Norde's absence could once again have a detrimental effect on Mumbai's attack.