Opta Supercomputer Tips Liverpool as Favourites for 2025-26 Premier League Crown

Opta’s supercomputer predicts Liverpool as 2025-26 Premier League champions with a 28.5% chance, followed by Arsenal (24.3%) and Man City (18.8%). Chelsea and Aston Villa round out the top five. Relegation favourites include Sunderland (66.4%), Leeds (48.1%) and Burnley (45.9%). All 20 teams were relegated in simulations, except Sunderland, none won the title.

When the 2025-26 Premier League season kicks off, all eyes will be on defending champions Liverpool, who top the Opta supercomputer’s projections with a 28.5% chance of retaining the title. Arne Slot’s side, buoyed by new signings like Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong, averaged 73.2 points across 10,000 simulations, just ahead of Arsenal (71.9 points, 24.3% title chance), who have finished second for three consecutive seasons.

Manchester City, recovering from a poor 2024-25 where Rodri’s injury proved costly, have an 18.8% chance of reclaiming the crown. Chelsea follows at 8.8%, while Aston Villa and Newcastle both sit at 5.1%. Every team except Sunderland won the title at least once in simulations, though Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland are the most likely to be relegated, with the latter going down 66.4% of the time.

Top-four favourites include Liverpool (72.8%), Arsenal (68.5%), City (62.0%), and Chelsea (40.4%). Manchester United and Tottenham are both long shots, qualifying for the Champions League in just 6.7% and 5.7% of simulations respectively. Surprisingly, Crystal Palace have a 21.6% chance of finishing in the top four. The simulations paint a picture of a tightly contested season across the table.